tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28630383307289088552024-03-13T05:01:51.301+01:00j-nodea random slice of reality...jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.comBlogger68125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-78244360138453499012019-08-24T15:45:00.000+02:002019-08-24T16:06:43.138+02:00writing an open access book<span id="mood">information-consciousness-reality</span><br />
<br />
When I first started to structure the ideas leading to this <a href="http://www.jth.ch/icr">book</a> in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XKAe4ypn_k">2011</a>, it was clear to me that "information is physical". However, the link between information and consciousness was only a hunch then. Indeed, I only learned about Integrated Information Theory and panpsychism in 2016.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51ZwLbHMqCL.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="332" height="320" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51ZwLbHMqCL.jpg" width="212" /></a></div>
<br />
I now only realize that I missed a whole branch of reality relating to information. Ideally, the book's name should be "Information, Consciousness, Life, and Reality", and it should include the recently discovered computational foundation of biological life. A new understanding of thermodynamics and complex systems appears to make life (i.e., metabolic pathways optimizing dissipation) an inevitable phenomenon throughout the <a href="https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-computational-foundation-of-life-20170126/">cosmos</a>.<br />
<br />
<h2>
The Support</h2>
<div>
As I outline in the <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-030-03633-1.pdf">acknowledgments</a>, I am lucky to have been supported by many kind people on this journey. It was always interesting to experience the synchronicities during the creation of the book (see <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-030-03633-1.pdf">Page 617</a>) when often, out of seemingly nowhere, a new piece of the puzzle was revealed during a conversation. It was also clear from the very beginning, that the book had to be available for free. This not only meant that all the hours working on the manuscript were motivated by passion but that I had to pay the publisher upfront for a book that would never generate revenues. Moreover, in six years <a href="https://crowd.science/campaigns/information-consciousness-reality/">I bought close to 300 books</a> for research.<br />
<br />
Again, I was lucky that many friends helped mitigate part of the financial burden. Specifically, a <a href="https://www.moneymuseum.com/">foundation in Zurich</a> co-financed me and I set up a <a href="https://crowd.science/campaigns/information-consciousness-reality/">crowdfunding campaign</a>. Here I would like to express my deep gratitude to everyone who supported me:)<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jWJp1smWocg/XWE_F5Sfc5I/AAAAAAAAC6U/6BwxndX8_bQSqFiYuqyKaUjoJZDx4P9KACLcBGAs/s1600/Slide1.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1040" data-original-width="720" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jWJp1smWocg/XWE_F5Sfc5I/AAAAAAAAC6U/6BwxndX8_bQSqFiYuqyKaUjoJZDx4P9KACLcBGAs/s640/Slide1.jpeg" width="442" /></a></div>
In detail, thank you:</div>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt; width: 87pt;" width="116">Adrian</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Alexander</td>
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<td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Alexandra</span></td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Amba</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Anatol</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Anton</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Aurelio</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Chris</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Christina</td>
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<td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Claudia<br />Dave</span></td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Dino</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Dominic</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Edith</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Eliane</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Emanuel</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Felix</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Franz</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Gian</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Gian-Reto</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Gonzalo</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Imre</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Jakob</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Jelena<br />
Jürg</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Kerstin</td>
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<td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Khaled</span></td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Ladina</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Madlaina</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Mana</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Manuel</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Marina</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Markus</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Martin</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Mathias</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Michel<br />
Michael</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Pedro</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Peter</td>
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<td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Priska</span></td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Rahel</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Ralf</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Sabine</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Sarah</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Sebi</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Sylvia</td>
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<td class="xl64" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">Thomas</span></td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Veronika</td>
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<td class="xl63" height="20" style="height: 15.75pt;">Vladimir</td>
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You all rock!</div>
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<br /></div>
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<iframe width="320" height="266" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/6--E4bErXu4/0.jpg" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6--E4bErXu4?feature=player_embedded" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></div>
<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-15279229108559641682018-04-18T11:50:00.001+02:002019-08-24T14:10:04.060+02:00it's that simple<span id="mood">#metoo</span><br />
The following is an excerpt from Afrikaburn's <a href="https://www.afrikaburn.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018-03-12-SG-English_Final_for-download.pdf">Survival Guide</a>, an official Burning Man regional event held in South Africa:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Nudity, skimpy clothing, or even raunchy behaviour is not an invitation to have sex or any form of intimate physical contact. The only invitation is a clearly spoken invitation. Ignoring someone’s inability to consent contradicts the spirit of our AfrikaBurn community completely.
<br />
<br />
Simply put: yes means yes, no means no, maybe means no and silence means no.
<br />
<br />
The standard for consent
in our community is an
enthusiastic Hell, YES!!
<br />
<br />
UNABLE to consent means:<br />
- too young,<br />
- too intoxicated,<br />
- too asleep or unconscious,<br />
- too scared or intimidated,<br />
- too ill.</blockquote>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://nedkilgannon.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/afrikaburn-2017-jan-verboom-photographer-tankwa-karoo-advertising-lifestyle-tv-commercial-photography-cape-townsouth-africa-224-of-441.jpg?w=1000&h=" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="534" data-original-width="800" height="213" src="https://nedkilgannon.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/afrikaburn-2017-jan-verboom-photographer-tankwa-karoo-advertising-lifestyle-tv-commercial-photography-cape-townsouth-africa-224-of-441.jpg?w=1000&h=" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">Photo credits: Jan Verboom, janverboom.com, 2017</span></div>
jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-36527457124069046682018-04-15T18:58:00.000+02:002018-04-15T19:02:56.658+02:00quote of the day<span id="mood">word</span><br />
Tim Minchin is an Australian comedian, actor, writer, musician, and director. He is very outspoken, controversial, and provocative with his satire. For instance, in 2010 he wrote <i>The Pope Song</i>, inspired by Pope Benedict and the abuse controversy that resurfaced that year. Given the lyrics of the song, it is astonishing that he performed it during a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTXtGrzUWu8&t=5675s">live show</a> at the Royal Albert Hall with the Heritage Orchestra.<br />
<br />
"In 2013, the University of Western Australia awarded Minchin an honorary Doctor of Letters degree for his contribution to the arts, recognising his outstanding achievements and worldwide acclaim as a composer, lyricist, actor, writer, and comedian" [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Minchin">Wikipedia</a>]. In his address, he presented 9 life lessons:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Eight. Respect people with less power than you. I have in the past made important decisions
about people I work with---agents and producers, big decisions---based
largely on how they treat the waitstaff in the restaurants we're having
the meeting in. <b>I don't care if you're most powerful cat in the room, I
will judge you on how you treat the least powerful</b>. </blockquote>
<br />
See <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoEezZD71sc&t=9m49s">here</a> and <a href="http://www.news.uwa.edu.au/201309176069/alumni/tim-minchin-stars-uwa-graduation-ceremony">here</a>.jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-43434604376021971282018-01-10T16:23:00.000+01:002018-01-10T22:24:21.652+01:00more conspiracy theories<span id="mood">facepalm af</span><br />
Recently, this illustration has been passed around, offering an explanation of how the world really works:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_oYtLqivAXg/WlYSvLpJaKI/AAAAAAAACxA/t7v39Lk9afoiHZEDFGtjk4iy9GLsPMF8wCLcBGAs/s1600/consp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1026" data-original-width="1600" height="205" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-_oYtLqivAXg/WlYSvLpJaKI/AAAAAAAACxA/t7v39Lk9afoiHZEDFGtjk4iy9GLsPMF8wCLcBGAs/s320/consp.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
(High res <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/ii9q62ldionpbrv/consp.jpg?dl=0">here</a>.)</div>
<br />
It tries to expose the sinister levels of deception and manipulation behind our apparent reality. The picture originated <a href="https://kauilapele.wordpress.com/2017/11/15/from-autonomous-on-4chan-board-the-swamp-down-the-rabbit-hole-jpeg/">here</a> (from Autonomous on 4chan, but has been taken down) and was popularized <a href="https://twitter.com/MAGAPILL/status/931987385860198400">here</a> (MAGA Pill tweet). It has been called <i>The Swamp</i> or <i>Down the Rabbit Hole</i>.<br />
<br />
For my own take on conspiracy theories, see this <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2017/05/the-relativity-of-subjective-perception.html">post</a>. As an author of the <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0025995">study</a> that produced the following figures appearing in the illustration (see right-hand side of the first level down)<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NpOamBTItRo/WlYVGGJwgFI/AAAAAAAACxM/Y-04-yYxwIoD_UJGrk2kB5MElplsjr6twCLcBGAs/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-01-10%2Bat%2B14.27.41.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="304" data-original-width="691" height="140" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NpOamBTItRo/WlYVGGJwgFI/AAAAAAAACxM/Y-04-yYxwIoD_UJGrk2kB5MElplsjr6twCLcBGAs/s320/Screen%2BShot%2B2018-01-10%2Bat%2B14.27.41.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
I would like to comment the following.<br />
<br />
Regarding the topic of the media (at the top level) I would focus on false news, post-truth, conspiracy theories, filter bubbles, echo chambers, lies (yes, alternative facts), hidden agendas, divisiveness, hatred, and propaganda. Relating to the overall state of affairs, this perhaps summarizes best:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
As a species, our recent terraforming activities have fundamentally transformed the biosphere we rely on, resulting in considerable impact for us individually. In a nutshell, we have devised linear systems that extract resources at one end, which, after being consumed, are disposed of at the other end. However, on a finite planet, extraction soon becomes exploitation and disposal results in pollution. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Today, this can be witnesses at unprecedented global scales. Just consider the following: substantial levels of pesticides and BPA in vast populations and even remote populations (like Inuit women whose breast milk is toxic due to pollutants accumulating in the ocean’s food chain), increase of chronic diseases, antimicrobial resistance, the Great Pacific and the North Atlantic garbage patches, e-waste, exploding levels of greenhouse gases, peak oil and phosphorus, land degradation, deforestation, water pollution, food waste, overfishing, dramatic loss of biodiversity,. . . The list is constantly growing as we await the arrival of the next billion human inhabitants on this planet. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Compounding this acute problem is the fact that today’s generations are living at the expense of future generations, ecologically and economically. For instance, we have reached Earth Overshoot Day in 2015 on the 13th of August. Each year, this day measures when human consumption of Earth’s natural resources, or humanity’s ecological footprint, approximately reaches the world’s biocapacity to generated those natural resources in a year. Since the introduction of this measure in 1970, when the 23rd of December marked Earth Overshoot Day, this tipping point has been occurring earlier and earlier. Moreover, just check the Global Debt Clock, recording public debt worldwide, to see an incomprehensibly and frighteningly high figure, casting an ominous shadow over future prosperity. Yes, the outlook is very dire indeed.</blockquote>
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">(Taken from <a href="https://medium.com/@jnode/at-the-dawn-of-human-collective-intelligence-5113f2d97de9">my contribution</a> to <i><a href="http://opensourceecology.org/w/images/7/79/Howtosavehumanity.pdf">HOW TO SAVE HUMANITY</a></i>)</span><br />
<br />
OK, let's dive down the rabbit hole. Can we please add people like Charles and David Koch, Rupert Murdoch, and corporate and finance tycoons to the list, thank you. By the way, <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/james_b_glattfelder_who_controls_the_world/transcript">my statement</a> on the question if our study has exposed a global conspiracy, unmasking the all-controlling, all-powerful Illuminati:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: transparent;">What should you take home from all of this? Well, the high degree of control you saw is very extreme by any standard. The high degree of interconnectivity of the top players in the core could pose a significant systemic risk to the global economy. And we could easily reproduce the TNC network with a few simple rules. This means that its structure is probably the result of self-organization. It's an emergent property which depends on the rules of interaction in the system, so it's probably not the result of a top-down approach like a global conspiracy.</span></span></blockquote>
<br />
So far so good. Regardless through which political lens you choose to view the world, the status quo appears deficient and things could be arguably a lot better. Power and wealth have accumulated <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2011/10/so-what-about-greed-and-inequality.html">in the hands of very few</a>, a condition accompanying the human species <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankind-Yuval-Noah-Harari/dp/0062316095">since over ten millennia</a>.<br />
<br />
Moving on to the second and third levels down the rabbit hole. This is where things become unsavory and appalling. This is where the batshit crazy enters and I am not talking about the pathological paranoia (advanced secret space programs, "certain" bloodline families dominating all aspects of our lives, trauma-based mind control, ...). No, I am talking about this:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="text-align: start;"><b>Luciferianism, worshipping the Dark Side, next to child and human sacrifices.</b></span></div>
<br />
Dude, seriously?<br />
<br />
Another thing I object to is CERN being associated with the devil. Obviously, the logo of the three accelerator rings reveals the hidden symbolism of evil: <a href="http://twomosquitoes.blogspot.ch/2008/09/cerns-logo-666-learn-its-true-origin.html?m=1">666</a>! Ghasp (and not to be confused with 999). So, all scientists are bad people, ha. They are all corrupt and dishonest. But ever wondered where the gift of technology comes from?<br />
<br />
It is an interesting idiosyncrasy of our times that we have become increasingly accustomed to the ongoing success of the human mind in probing reality and understanding the world we live in. Indeed, the relevance of this ever-growing body of knowledge, describing the universe and ourselves in greater and greater detail, cannot be overstated. It allows us to engineer and design reality at will! Sadly, we have come to expect our technological abilities to constantly accelerate and reach breakneck speeds, without giving it a second thought.<br />
<br />
The good souls laying the foundations of knowledge, enabling and fostering technological progress are and have always been---drumroll---scientists. People love reaping the fruits of technology (from transistors in microchips to a global information network, from smartphones to rovers on Mars) while at the same time vilifying the hardworking scientists making this possible, based on petty social and political preferences. However, a simple solution is the following. If you deny science (from flat Earth, to creationism, to climate skepticism, to anti-vaxxers, ...) you don't get to use a smartphone and the Internet. Also, no electricity...<br />
<br />
In closing, perhaps people should spend less time online and actually look at and engage with the real world around them. Perhaps a walk in nature could help cultivate a healthy and sane mindset. Or observing a sunset or gazing at the night sky. Perhaps a bit of contemplation and reflection could counter all this toxic thinking. Pro tip: Ever engaged in <a href="https://images.pearsonassessments.com/images/tmrs/CriticalThinkingReviewFINAL.pdf">critical thinking</a>? You know, stuff like this:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Critical thinking involves both cognitive skills and
dispositions. These dispositions, which can be seen as attitudes or habits of mind, include open and
fair-mindedness, inquisitiveness, flexibility, a propensity to seek reason, a desire to be wellinformed,
and a respect for and willingness to entertain diverse viewpoints. </blockquote>
<br />
Just sayin'<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-66024666436950613582017-08-15T18:41:00.000+02:002018-01-10T14:13:47.830+01:00random quote of the day<span id="mood">technology</span>
A short quote on the acceleration of technological breakthroughs at breakneck speed:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i><span style="font-size: large;">The information society has been brought about by the fastest growing technology in history. No previous generation has ever been exposed to such an extraordinary acceleration of technological power over reality, with the corresponding social changes and ethical responsibilities. </span></i><i><span style="font-size: large;">Total pervasiveness, flexibility, and high power have raised ICT to the status of the characteristic technology of our time, factually, rhetorically, and even iconographically.</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i><span style="font-size: large;">The computer presents itself as a culturally defining technology and has become a symbol of the new millennium, playing a cultural role far more influential than that of mills in the Middle Ages, mechanical clocks in the seventeenth century, and the loom or the steam engine in the age of the Industrial Revolution.</span></i></div>
</blockquote>
<br />
Taken from <i><a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Philosophy-Information-Luciano-Floridi/dp/0199232393">The Philosophy of Information</a></i>, <a href="http://www.philosophyofinformation.net/">Luciano Floridi</a>, 2011, pages 4 and 5.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/covers/uk/pop-up/9780199232383" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="366" height="320" src="https://global.oup.com/academic/covers/uk/pop-up/9780199232383" width="212" /></a></div>
<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-31571468061720169272017-08-01T15:51:00.000+02:002017-08-01T17:38:41.598+02:00How To ICO<span id="mood">token fun</span>
A little tutorial showing you how to create your own ERC20 tokens using Solidity on the Ethereum testnet <a href="https://www.rinkeby.io/">Rinkeby</a>.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Preface</h3>
To get started, you need Ubuntu Linux running. An easy way is to<br />
<ul>
<li>install <a href="https://www.virtualbox.org/">VirtualBox</a> on your machine;</li>
<li>install <a href="https://www.ubuntu.com/">Ubuntu</a> there.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Then you need to install</div>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://solidity.readthedocs.io/en/develop/">Solidity</a> (object-oriented programming language for writing smart contracts);</li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/ethereum/go-ethereum/wiki/geth">Geth</a> (command line interface for running a full ethereum node implemented in Go).</li>
</ul>
To do this, execute the following:
<br />
<pre class="brush: csharp">$ sudo apt-get install software-properties-common
$ sudo add-apt-repository -y ppa:ethereum/ethereum
$ sudo apt-get update
$ sudo apt-get install geth solc
</pre>
<br />
Check your installation:<br />
<pre class="brush: csharp">$ solc --version
$ geth version
</pre>
See more details <a href="https://github.com/Communication-Systems-Group/geth-hello-world">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Solidity Deployment</h3>
Synchronize blockchai:<br />
<pre class="brush: csharp">$ geth --rinkeby --fast</pre>
This will take a couple of minutes. Once you see something like this in the terminal, you are up to date (note that an average block time is 15s):
<br />
<pre class="brush: csharp"> INFO [08-01|14:53:24] Imported new chain segment blocks=1 txs=1
mgas=0.021 elapsed=1.998ms mgasps=10.505 number=638703
hash=273388…bd5211</pre>
Then you can CTR-C.
<br />
<br />
To launch the CLI:<br />
<pre class="brush: csharp">$ geth attach $HOME/.ethereum/rinkeby/geth.ipc</pre>
Create an address (account) on the Rinkeby testnet:<br />
<pre class="brush: csharp">$ geth --rinkeby account new</pre>
Enter password and save address.<br />
<br />
Start Geth:<br />
<pre class="brush: csharp">$ geth --rinkeby --rpc --rpccorsdomain '*' --rpcapi
"eth,net,web3,personal" --unlock 0 --password <(echo XXX)</pre>
<br />
Go to:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://ethereum.github.io/browser-solidity/">http://ethereum.github.io/browser-solidity/</a></li>
<li>change "Environment" (top right) from "JavaScript VM" to " Web3 Provider" (uses http://localhost:8545).</li>
</ul>
Get ETH:
<br />
<ul>
<li>Go to <a href="https://www.rinkeby.io/">https://www.rinkeby.io/</a> and click "Crypto Faucet".</li>
<li>You need a GitHub account.</li>
<li>Login to create a Gist: description and filename can be anything, however, the first line (starting with "1") needs to contain the address you generated above, preceded by "0x" (see <a href="https://gist.github.com/jbglattfelder/62b42564fa9b804be7ae8e6fd97316da">example</a>).</li>
<li>Refresh the GUI at <a href="http://ethereum.github.io/browser-solidity">http://ethereum.github.io/browser-solidity</a>/ (and choose "Web3 Provider" again)</li>
</ul>
<div>
Now you should have an account balance showing a few ether.</div>
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Deploy Test Contract</h3>
Set up:<br />
<ul>
<li>In <a href="http://ethereum.github.io/browser-solidity/">http://ethereum.github.io/browser-solidity/</a> add a new contract (plus sign top left). </li>
<li>Fill in example code from <a href="https://github.com/jbglattfelder/tokens/blob/master/example.sol">here</a>.</li>
<li>Click "Create" (orange/pink button right-hand side).</li>
<li>Wait for transaction to be mined.</li>
<li>Check terminal synchronizing blocks: you should see the address of the new contact "contract=0x0498b6289f48e28124ec23c30993fcf59af22092".</li>
<li>You should have less ether (top right).</li>
<li>Check contract address in <a href="https://rinkeby.etherscan.io/">https://rinkeby.etherscan.io/</a>.</li>
</ul>
<div>
Play:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>You should have buttons in the browser on the right-hand side (<a href="http://ethereum.github.io/browser-solidity/">http://ethereum.github.io/browser-solidity/</a>) corresponding to the getter and setter functions.</li>
<li>Enter in "set": 2,"MyAddr",42</li>
<li>Entering 2 in "getAmount" or "getAddr" should return "42" and "MyAddr", respectively.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h3>
<br />Create ERC20 Token</h3>
<ul>
<li>Copy code from <a href="https://github.com/jbglattfelder/tokens/blob/master/myToken.sol">here</a> into <a href="http://ethereum.github.io/browser-solidity/">http://ethereum.github.io/browser-solidity/</a>.</li>
<li>Deploy contract with "Create" button ("browser/myToken.sol/MyToken").</li>
<li>Check "totalSupply" button.</li>
<li>Check your balance by putting your account address you generated with Geth above into the "balanceOf" field (right-hand side). NB: address is in quotes and add "0x" if missing in the beginning of the string.</li>
<li>Check contract address (from synchronization terminal or "Copy address" button in browser) in </li>
</ul>
With the <a href="https://parity.io/">parity</a> wallet (stop synchronizing terminal and go to <a href="http://127.0.0.1:8180/">http://127.0.0.1:8180/</a> ) ERC20 tokens can be stored. Create a new wallet address. Stop parity and restart Geth. Click " transfer" button with your parity address in quotes and some amount.<br />
<br />
Voila, you just did an ICO and transferred some tokens.<br />
<br />
See <a href="https://rinkeby.etherscan.io/token/0xefb6e05b909a60bb4fec625fad46fa75250fcbd9#balances">my example token</a> (<a href="https://rinkeby.etherscan.io/token/0xefb6e05b909a60bb4fec625fad46fa75250fcbd9?a=0xe676a357ad147b280620c9a9227c50c63ca9d6ed">original address</a> and <a href="https://rinkeby.etherscan.io/token/0xefb6e05b909a60bb4fec625fad46fa75250fcbd9?a=0x006dd7425eb1dfae3c37ecc15d2e0e35ef0deffe">my parity wallet</a>).<br />
<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-29689505698830064072017-05-11T16:27:00.001+02:002017-05-16T17:51:32.135+02:00the relativity of the subjective perception of reality<span id="mood">fun with memes</span><br />
The label post-truth is quintessential to our world today. We have transitioned from:<br />
<ul>
<li>pstmodernism</li>
</ul>
to <br />
<ul>
<li>constructivism</li>
</ul>
on to <br />
<ul>
<li>relativism</li>
</ul>
Basically, today you can believe whatever you like and there will always be an on-line subculture defending those views with "facts". Ironic in times when neuroscience is able to explain why our brains cling to the belief systems it has formed, <a href="http://theoatmeal.com/comics/believe">especially when presented with evince negating the beliefs</a>.<br />
<br />
The relativism of defining one's own subjective experience of the external world is perhaps most obvious when it come to conspiracy theories. Below a <a href="https://9gag.com/gag/amYy8xj">meme</a> ranking conspiracy theories by how much you need to warp your perception of reality in order to convince your brain it's true.<br />
<br />
By the way, I believe in the last four;) See <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2015/07/the-consciousness-of-reality-illusion.html">here</a> and <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2016/12/what-is-real.html">here</a> for details on why. This was my motivation for making the meme: If people are willing to believe bat shit crazy stuff, why not go all the way? While traditional conspiracy theories rely on everyone lying to you and constantly deceiving you, "my" conspiracy theories place you in the center of creation.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/amYy8xj_700b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="2240" src="https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/amYy8xj_700b.jpg" width="410" /></a></div>
<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-29103090633640228622017-04-24T17:00:00.000+02:002017-04-25T00:20:56.494+02:00some output...<span id="mood">more work</span><br />
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
The Alpha Engine: Designing an Automated Trading Algorithm</h2>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>We introduce a new approach to algorithmic investment management that yields profitable automated trading strategies. <br /><br />
This trading model design is the result of a path of investigation that was chosen nearly three decades ago. Back then, a paradigm change was proposed for the way time is defined in financial markets, based on intrinsic events. This definition lead to the uncovering of a large set of scaling laws. An additional guiding principle was found by embedding the trading model construction in an agent-base framework, inspired by the study of complex systems. <br /><br />
This new approach to designing automated trading algorithms is a parsimonious method for building a new type of investment strategy that not only generates profits, but also provides liquidity and stability to financial markets and does not have a priori restrictions on the amount of assets that are managed.</i></blockquote>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MxpduIwrmsU" width="448"></iframe></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Trading model simulations.
</span></i></div>
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: center;">
History</h4>
The trading model algorithm outlined here is the result of a long journey that began in the early 1980s. Starting with a new conceptual framework of time, this voyage set out to chart new terrain. The whole history of this endeavor is described in the <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2951348">appendix</a>. The key ingredients of this new paradigm are:<br />
<ul>
<li>Intrinsic Time</li>
<li>The Emergence of <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/0809.1040">Scaling Laws</a> (*)</li>
<li>Trading Models and <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-33424-5_1">Complexity</a> (*)</li>
<li>Coastline Trading (*)</li>
<li>Novel Insights from Information Theory</li>
<li>The Final Pieces of the Puzzle: Asymmetric Thresholds</li>
</ul>
<div>
(* I was lucky to have been part of this 12-year leg of the journey)<br />
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />
The trading model algorithm described here is the result of a meandering journey that lasted for decades. Guided by an overarching event-based framework, recasting time as discrete and driven by activity, elements from complexity theory and information theory were added. In a nutshell, the proposed trading model is defined by a set of simple rules executed at specific events in the market. This approach to designing automated trading models yields an algorithm that fulfills many desired</div>
<div>
features. Its parsimonious, modular, and self-similar design results in behaviour that is profitable, robust, and adaptive.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V8U-PNghvek/WP38M9H_S2I/AAAAAAAACuw/306Q6DNG02whfDnYNeCUVcfGQT-IBJldgCLcB/s1600/alpha.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="156" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V8U-PNghvek/WP38M9H_S2I/AAAAAAAACuw/306Q6DNG02whfDnYNeCUVcfGQT-IBJldgCLcB/s400/alpha.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><b><a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2951348">Download the paper from SSRN</a></b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: purple; font-size: large;"><a href="https://github.com/AntonVonGolub/Code/blob/master/code.java"><b style="background-color: white;">Download the code from GitHub</b></a></span></div>
</div>
<div>
<h4 style="text-align: center;">
<div style="font-weight: normal;">
⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼⎼</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Context</h4>
A crucial feature of the trading model is that it is designed to be counter trend. The coastline trading ensures that positions, which are going against a trend, are maintained or increased. In this sense, the models provide liquidity to the market. When market participants want to sell, the investment strategy will buy and vice versa. This market-stabilizing feature of the model is beneficial to the markets as a whole. The more such strategies are implemented, the less we expect to see runaway markets but healthier market conditions overall. By construction, the trading model only ceases to perform in low-volatility markets.</div>
<br />
If investment strategies contribute to market liquidity, they can help stabilize prices and reduce the uncertainty in financial markets and the economy at large. For such strategies the investment returns can be viewed as a payoff for the value-added provided to the economy.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZGyv1yQ7pbc/WP4Km28C6bI/AAAAAAAACvA/YEB8OUwWBzspzSD4o3Ref8yJFxVvvhO6QCLcB/s1600/pnl.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="143" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZGyv1yQ7pbc/WP4Km28C6bI/AAAAAAAACvA/YEB8OUwWBzspzSD4o3Ref8yJFxVvvhO6QCLcB/s400/pnl.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: center;">
Your Help is Needed</h4>
<div>
In essence, what we present here is a proof of concept. We refrained from tweaking the model to yield better performance, in order to clearly establish and outline the model's building blocks and fundamental behavior. We strongly believe there is great potential for obvious and straightforward improvements, which would give rise to far better models. Nevertheless, the bare-bones model we present here already has the capability of being implemented as a robust and profitable trading model that can be run in real-time. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Nevertheless, with all the merits of the trading algorithm presented here, we are only at the beginning. The Alpha Engine should be understood as a prototype. The model can easily be improved by calibrating the various exchange rates by volatility, or by excluding illiquid ones. Furthermore, the model treats all the currency pairs in isolation. There should be a large window of opportunity for increasing the performance of the trading model by introducing correlation across currency pairs. This is a unique and invaluable source of information not yet exploited. Finally, a whole layer of risk management can be implemented on top of the models.<br />
<br />
We hope to have presented a convincing set of tools motivated by a consistent philosophy. If so, we invite the reader to take what is outlined here and improve upon it...</div>
<div>
<br />
<br />
--<br />
<br />
This paper will appear as a chapter in the book <i><b>High Performance Computing in Finance: Problems, Methods, and Solutions</b></i>, Chapman & Hall/CRC Series in Mathematical Finance, 2017<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-32275635908946571702017-03-23T19:22:00.000+01:002017-03-23T19:23:52.127+01:00More Networks<span id="mood">at work</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3Jh6wawJ6EM/WNPf3CMjOyI/AAAAAAAACuc/ZE77kA6CJGEFlTleXj3e-oA0VWB_CqbnACLcB/s1600/acwinw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="373" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3Jh6wawJ6EM/WNPf3CMjOyI/AAAAAAAACuc/ZE77kA6CJGEFlTleXj3e-oA0VWB_CqbnACLcB/s400/acwinw.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
This is a network of power. This time not <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2011/10/network-of-global-corporate-control.html">economic power</a>, but megawatts of capacity.<br />
<br />
The pink nodes are power plants producing energy. They are the sources in this flow network. The green nodes are sinks. They are the utilities in the All Country World Index (MSCI ACWI) and are scaled by the MW of power reaching them directly or via the network of subsidiaries (blue nodes).<br />
<br />
The right hand side of the figure reveals the piping in the network, where the nodes are removed and only the weighted and directed ownership links are shown.<br />
<br />
This is an example of climate finance, a topic slowly appearing on the radars of institutions. See, for instance, Mark Carney's <a href="http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech923.pdf">speech</a>, as Governor of the Bank of England.<br />
<br />
Data sources: GlobalData and Orbis. The work is done for the <a href="http://seimetrics.org/">SEI Metrics Project</a>.<br />
<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-7910185854928125552016-12-20T20:07:00.000+01:002016-12-20T20:15:28.409+01:00sk8<span id="mood">x-sports</span><br />
Skateboarding is hard.<br />
<br />
Really hard.<br />
<br />
It is one of those pursuits that allows humans to demonstrate insane skills.<br />
<br />
Like:<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
Untethered high-lining (Dean Potter)<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="210" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KVaTsulE5Z0" width="373"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Proximity wingsuit flying (<a href="http://www.healingphilosophy.com/2009/10/to-base-jump-or-not-to-base-jump-halvor.html">Halvor Angvik</a>)<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="210" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bxb15J2SiTw" width="373"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Triple corks on skis (Bobby Brown)<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="210" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KDgwOuzJtjo" width="373"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Quad corks on snowboards (Billy Morgan)
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="210" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/opq_2LlX7uk" width="373"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Big wave surfing (Garret McNamara)<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="210" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/74pnrYPozcU" width="373"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Jumping into water (Laso Schaller, Dana Kunze)<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="210" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/j5uXL4w90yU" width="373"></iframe>
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="210" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rTxNBgKnTWo" width="373"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Free soloing (Alex Honnold)<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="210" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Phl82D57P58" width="373"></iframe>
</div>
<br />
<br />
Skateboarding is very technical. The simplest trick is an Ollie. You basically just pop the board into the air using your feet. This is the basis for all street tricks. Unfortunately, mastering an Ollie takes a long time.<br />
<br />
First you need to be comfortable <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3NXd3DhH08">riding your board</a>. If you find balancing hard, try riding tight trucks. Once you get the hang of it, loosen them and enjoy the added sense of maneuverability. Now you can start to practice Ollies while stationary. Then while riding. Yes, you need to be patient.<br />
<br />
Now, I thought that decades of snowboarding would help. Well, they do a little bit. Still took me some time to feel safe cruising. As a snowboarder, the unfamiliar freedom of being able to place your feet anywhere on the skateboard needed some time to understand (but this then turned out to really help my surfing!).<br />
<br />
On a snowboard, I can pretty much do everything switch, also at high speeds. However, riding switch or fakie on a skateboard feels super uncomfortable. Yes, patience.<br />
<br />
So, just to get the basics down takes ages. You can be skateboarding for quite some time and everything you do looks easy and unspectacular to bystanders.<br />
<br />
Now imagine the level of skill you need to be able to do this:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Q4FtMV82fLA" width="448"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Or this:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VepLNfbsFPk?list=PL0BA880991E2A9169" width="448"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Or this:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-0iLqyXWEVk" width="448"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Or this:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MBAMORxcdFc" width="448"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Or this:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PeB6Re_Yi7g?list=PL0BA880991E2A9169" width="448"></iframe><br />
<br />
Skateboarding is also hard because it is done on concrete or asphalt, with edges and corners looming everywhere. It is really intimidating to know that if you have to bail, you won't be landing in water or on snow.<br />
<br />
For some insane reason there is an unwritten law, that dictates that street-style skateboarding is best executed without any kind of protection:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8mpT7Rroqs8?list=PL0BA880991E2A9169" width="448"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4GFIXrybfKg" width="448"></iframe>
And don't search for "skateboard slam sessions" on YouTube.<br />
<br />
So, why bother? Simple, it is just so much fun! Even the beginner parts;)<br />
<br />
It is about a philosophy, an outlook on life. A simple feeling, a state of being. Watch skate legend <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/rodney_mullen_pop_an_ollie_and_innovate">Rodney Mullen's TED talk</a>. Or watch him perform at the age of 50:
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_nZZaWobR-c" width="448"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
Or listen to this geezer:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lM4FQ_FqEhQ" width="448"></iframe><br />
<br />
Or watch Tony Hawk reenacting his 900 at the age of 48:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TnvPt_a7iOQ" width="448"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
And then there is vert and big-air skateboarding next to street...
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tSnfO15cAHE" width="448"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
For me, at 44, I just want to be able to cruise around town (meaning I need to be able to Ollie up a curb at some point) and learn to ride a bowl/mini ramp (i.e., frozen wave). All this while not getting hurt. The idea is to bridge snowboarding and surfing with skateboarding. It's about developing a new kind of intelligence in my feet and legs.<br />
<br />
Still a long way to go:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="252" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X8BNmPsWjRM" width="448"></iframe><br />
<br />
My board has a wide deck, wide trucks, and soft wheels...<br />
<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-57419337308623472862016-12-19T10:27:00.000+01:002016-12-28T18:51:41.921+01:00the center of the universe<span id="mood">information is physical</span><br />
Just a random thought:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b><i>Earth is literally the center of the universe in terms of information processing. </i></b></blockquote>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://media-3.web.britannica.com/eb-media//48/142648-050-DD2D538C.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://media-3.web.britannica.com/eb-media//48/142648-050-DD2D538C.jpg" height="203" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
Or at least, as far as we are aware of.<br />
<br />
Because:<br />
<br />
In the beginning, information processing manifested itself on molecular basis utilizing self-replicators a few billion years ago, as the emergent process called life unleashed itself.<br />
<br />
Then, not too long ago, the neural networks assembled by the process of life became conscious and self-aware.<br />
<br />
And currently, as these sentient beings bring information processing to a non-organic platform: binary computation.<br />
<br />
Finally, as the cognizant beings push the limits of information processing into the quantum realm, employing the technology that emerged from their own information processing capabilities. This unlocks unprecedented new levels of computation.<br />
<br />
--<br />
<br />
Edit: made a <a href="http://9gag.com/gag/axgnOWD">meme</a> out of this:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/axgnOWD_700b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/axgnOWD_700b.jpg" height="187" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-33719711692108989832016-12-01T10:47:00.000+01:002016-12-01T11:09:33.890+01:00What is Real?<span id="mood">am I even real?</span><br />
Met the wonderful Lucy Hawking at TEDxSalford by chance (<i><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7K-qlQVpgE">Science and Storytelling</a></i>, <i><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMckdYX0fTU">The Consciousness of Reality</a></i>). This led to an amazing opportunity allowing me to contribute a science essay to her newest children's book:<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/George-Blue-Georges-Secret-Universe-x/dp/0857533274">George and the Blue Moon</a></i><br />
Lucy and Stephen Hawking<br />
Penguin, 2016</div>
<br />
Staying true to my <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2015/07/the-consciousness-of-reality-illusion.html">little hobby</a>, it was called:<br />
<br />
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<i>
What is Reality?</i></h2>
And it started like this:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>Every day you wake up. Returning from the wonderful adventures you may have been having in your dreams, you become you again. The memories of who you are and what you have been up to in your life come back. And you also realize that there is a world that lies outside of yourself, simply called reality. Then you get up.</b><br />
<br />
<b>This all seems very ordinary and not very exciting. However, all of this is linked to the hardest question that humans have ever asked themselves: What exactly is reality? What is this thing, made up of space, time and objects, we live in?</b></blockquote>
<br />
And ended like this:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b>But for the moment we can comfort ourselves with two answers to the question, ‘What is reality?’</b><br />
<br />
<b>One is that reality is a much bigger, richer and more complex thing than we ever dared to dream.</b><br />
<br />
<b>Or a short answer could be, ‘I create my reality!’
</b></blockquote>
<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-67504523555257045492016-11-24T12:11:00.002+01:002016-11-30T09:17:51.076+01:00creativity<span id="mood">reggie watts is a genius</span><br />
Some people are just insanely creative. We already met <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2010/08/beardyman-makes-some-noize.html">Beardyman</a>.
Reggie Watts is equipped with a similar set of skills. His web-page
labels him as vocal artist, beatboxer, musician, and comedian. His
performances are random and often improvised sequences of live
looping and colorful vocal outbursts, comprised of sounds and noises
and narrating in various accents and (mock) languages.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1XC6cK2W6LY/WD3L8E7urkI/AAAAAAAACs0/4NWRBs07lzM__JBfXU6IMSD2jH4crVvlgCLcB/s1600/reggie-watts-8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1XC6cK2W6LY/WD3L8E7urkI/AAAAAAAACs0/4NWRBs07lzM__JBfXU6IMSD2jH4crVvlgCLcB/s320/reggie-watts-8.jpg" width="213" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="http://www.roadtovr.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/reggie-watts-8.jpg">http://www.roadtovr.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/reggie-watts-8.jpg</a></span></div>
<br />
To appreciate how his talent affects people, one can read the
remarkable compliments in the comment section of the YouTube videos of
his performances. In a refreshing, albeit rare, contrast to the
hatred and animosity mostly encountered there:<br />
<ul>
<li><i>"Reggie Watts is my favorite human."</i></li>
<li><i>"He really is light years ahead of the rest of us humans. I love
him. He is a genius."</i></li>
<li><i>"What planet did he come from? We don't deserve this kind of being.
We're not worthy."</i></li>
<li><i>"This man is light-years ahead of his time."</i></li>
<li><i>"Absolutely no clue what was happening but brilliant"</i></li>
<li><i>"What a fucking genius..."</i></li>
<li><i>"I hereby nominate Reggie Watts to be Ambassador of Earth, and be
first to make contact with aliens should they visit."</i></li>
<li><i>"Reggie is at the end of my rainbow!"</i></li>
<li><i>"I don't even laugh when watching Reggie anymore. I just admire
him."</i></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BdHK_r9RXTc" width="450"></iframe>
</div>
<br />
<br />
One reoccurring theme is Watts speaking with a British accent
reminiscent of a university professor, talking abstract nonsense. Or
is it?<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<b><i>
"And the important thing to remember is that this simulation is a
good one. It's believable, it's tactile. You can reach out -- things
are solid. You can move objects from one area to another. You can
feel your body. You can say, 'I'd like to go over to this location,'
and you can move this mass of molecules through the air over to
another location, at will."</i></b></blockquote>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/reggie_watts_disorients_you_in_the_most_entertaining_way"><span style="font-size: x-small;">"Reggie Watts: Beats that defy boxes", TED 2012</span></a></div>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
<b><i>
"Now, we know that everything here is an illusion and that we are
somewhere else. But the cool thing about that is, it feels pretty
real. I mean -- you know what I mean? Like, it's pretty convincing.
So, big credit to those people working hard there."</i></b></blockquote>
<div style="text-align: right;">
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXyHf_SpUUI"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Reggie Watts at POPTECH 2011</span></a></div>
<br />
<br />
Why should you consider reality to be a simulation/illusion? <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2015/07/the-consciousness-of-reality-illusion.html">Well...</a><br />
<br />
<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-42294708300888881602016-11-24T12:11:00.001+01:002016-11-25T10:25:50.837+01:00some stuff<span id="mood">on being idiosyncratic</span><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>next to my love of science</i> (see <a href="http://jth.ch/stuff">all the boring stuff</a>;)</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6yqzj-QB_0M/WDasErsH77I/AAAAAAAACsU/KTWYcf7Gwvg_fAgbmxe6Ga66ET-Cy3VlwCLcB/s1600/nw.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6yqzj-QB_0M/WDasErsH77I/AAAAAAAACsU/KTWYcf7Gwvg_fAgbmxe6Ga66ET-Cy3VlwCLcB/s200/nw.png" width="195" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>I really enjoy</i></div>
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>snowboarding</b> (nearly 30 years), <b>climbing</b> (23 years), <b>surfing</b> (20 years plus), and <b>skateboarding</b> (1/2 year)</li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_V9NDH5Gieg/WDaq-9tXvFI/AAAAAAAACsM/F4gMDCm69ooq2zBSR0l3fBd-IEJVDGTBQCLcB/s1600/boards.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="103" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_V9NDH5Gieg/WDaq-9tXvFI/AAAAAAAACsM/F4gMDCm69ooq2zBSR0l3fBd-IEJVDGTBQCLcB/s320/boards.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tlOD9QrhtS8/WDaq-8WiKnI/AAAAAAAACsI/458-DaKqK-Mel5hqwhizpcOhjBgRn0PMgCLcB/s1600/climb.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="113" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tlOD9QrhtS8/WDaq-8WiKnI/AAAAAAAACsI/458-DaKqK-Mel5hqwhizpcOhjBgRn0PMgCLcB/s320/climb.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>traveling</b></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<iframe height="360" src="https://www.google.com/maps/d/embed?mid=1v3JPxCp-2WKYLJp5HxL-825gpls" width="480"></iframe>
</ul>
<ul>
</ul>
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>electronic music</b> and related parties/festivals</li>
</ul>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kWpuEe6yIiM/WDar3Bw4RrI/AAAAAAAACsQ/iwtjezFYezMUmWSQ6Ns8VGNKUMDpbL5QQCLcB/s1600/prdy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="117" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kWpuEe6yIiM/WDar3Bw4RrI/AAAAAAAACsQ/iwtjezFYezMUmWSQ6Ns8VGNKUMDpbL5QQCLcB/s320/prdy.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NcVPDfXaOMM/WDa4dwecJnI/AAAAAAAACsk/NoOhGXX70VEuIQzMCTiwPwNa-DKeeGbcgCLcB/s1600/hr.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="7" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NcVPDfXaOMM/WDa4dwecJnI/AAAAAAAACsk/NoOhGXX70VEuIQzMCTiwPwNa-DKeeGbcgCLcB/s320/hr.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>and then (in random order)</i><br />
<br />
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
I constantly have to wonder about the existence of my own mind, the conscious experience it gives me of an external reality, and what this all could possibly mean (yeah, <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2015/07/the-consciousness-of-reality-illusion.html">book project</a>). </div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
I also like to be highly critical of the socio-cultural environment I was born into and from there move on to being critical of other ones (<a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2008/10/worst-of-two-worlds.html">rant</a> and <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2011/09/der-homo-ideologicus-und-die.html">rant</a>). I am highly skeptical of our financial systems (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0llRJwA0ahA">faults</a> and <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2011/10/so-what-about-greed-and-inequality.html">greed</a>).</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
I like to question myself and my ideas/beliefs.<br />
<br />
<br />
I try to put myself into other people's shoes, as I believe I would be that same person, given the same biography and brain chemistry/hard-wiring.<br />
<br />
<br />
I am an irrational optimist. although I see, in my opinion, so many things that are so terribly and depressingly wrong all over the world, I try to keep my faith (<a href="https://medium.com/@jnode/at-the-dawn-of-human-collective-intelligence-5113f2d97de9#.3aounohhw">this here</a>).</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
I get inspired by a spiritual outlook on life that seeks happiness and wisdom within oneself and allows for the existence of other realms of "reality" outside space and time (e.g., Buddhism and certain esoteric ideas). I totally and fundamentally reject institutionalized theologies. does the term "spiritual atheism" make any sense?</div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
I had been vegetarian for 12 years before turning vegan (as best as I can) 4 yeas ago. why? environmental, ethical, and <a href="http://nutritionfacts.org/">health</a> considerations (once I get around to it, this will be a long and heavily referenced piece).</div>
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
I aim at remaining grateful for experiencing this stream of consciousness, regardless of its contents.<br />
<br />
<br />
I try to resist the urge to be cynical as fuck as much as I can (e.g., while interacting with <a href="https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!msg/sci.physics/nkjbALgqW0U/oy8fYOtSzg4J">crackpots</a> in <a href="https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!topic/sci.physics/IvtUXUl1c5c/overview">news groups</a> or <a href="http://motls.blogspot.ch/2007/05/cnn-explosed-climate-of-fear.html#comment-559506951">discussing</a> <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/index.php?id=146">climate change</a>).</div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
I am deeply thankful to all the loved ones in my life, especially my wife, who make this journey so much more fun <3<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NcVPDfXaOMM/WDa4dwecJnI/AAAAAAAACss/xpsZ80lTFfcDgkK_WSVkk2ks2xD0rPkAQCEw/s1600/hr.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="7" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NcVPDfXaOMM/WDa4dwecJnI/AAAAAAAACss/xpsZ80lTFfcDgkK_WSVkk2ks2xD0rPkAQCEw/s320/hr.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br /></div>
jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-11148103294952089062016-05-30T20:21:00.000+02:002016-06-14T21:01:18.425+02:00swimming in the sea of knowledge<span id="mood">we live in truly interesting times</span><br />
We take one of the most amazing and far-reaching achievements in recent times for granted: free access to knowledge.<br />
<br />
The advent of user-generated content, the so-called Web 2.0, has enabled initiatives like <b>Wikipedia</b> to assemble an unfathomable amount of human knowledge --- at your fingertips. The <b>Google Books</b> Project has scanned and digitalized millions of books making them searchable on-line.<br />
<br />
<b>Google Scholar</b> is a search engine accessing countless published scholarly articles. Many publications nowadays are open access and often working papers or preprints are available (like arxiv.org, biorxiv.org, ssrn.com). If this isn't enough, "Alexandra Elbakyan, a researcher from Kazakhstan, created <b>Sci-Hub</b>, a website that bypasses journal paywalls, illegally providing access to nearly every scientific paper ever published immediately to anyone who wants it" (<a href="http://bigthink.com/neurobonkers/a-pirate-bay-for-science">src</a>). Obviously, this results in a <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/pirate-research-paper-sites-play-hide-and-seek-with-publishers-1.18876">cat-and-mouse game</a>:<br />
<ul>
<li>http://sci-hub.io/</li>
<li>http://sci-hub.bz/</li>
<li>...</li>
<li>TOR <span style="background-color: white; color: black; display: inline; float: none; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , "times" , serif; font-size: 15.95px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 23.925px; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">scihub22266oqcxt.onion </span></li>
</ul>
But access alone is not enough. The sheer amount of information is mind-blowing. So, how can one navigate this see of knowledge without drowning?<br />
<br />
Enter YouTube, respectively its content providers. There exist a multitude of channels featuring videos aimed at explaining countless topics from science to philosophy. But crucially, this is done in an entertaining and/or visually appealing manner. Some of my favorites are:
<b>Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshel</b>, <b>CrashCourse</b>, <b>Vsauce</b>, <b>Veritassium</b>, <b>MinutePhysics</b> or one of the channels of <b>Brady Haran</b> (<a href="http://www.bradyharan.com/">list</a>).<br />
<br />
And, last but not least, <b>TED</b> and <b>TEDx</b> talks entertain "ideas worth spreading". In other words, personal insights from people working at the cutting edge of current knowledge or simply talks packed with inspiration. <br />
<br />
This all means that you have a nearly inexhaustible treasure trove of knowledge at your free disposal, broken down into piecemeal units, ready for instant education.<br />
<br />
Enjoy:)<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X9otDixAtFw?list=PL4TndZPmIk2dIDld9zBX8OLQjuoi6axDG" width="450"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IV-8YsyghbU?list=PL8dPuuaLjXtNgK6MZucdYldNkMybYIHKR" width="450"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/R3unPcJDbCc?list=PL4TndZPmIk2dIDld9zBX8OLQjuoi6axDG" width="450"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sMb00lz-IfE?list=PL4TndZPmIk2dIDld9zBX8OLQjuoi6axDG" width="450"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HGG4HmlotJE?list=PL4TndZPmIk2dIDld9zBX8OLQjuoi6axDG" width="450"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GuigptwlVHo?list=PL4TndZPmIk2dIDld9zBX8OLQjuoi6axDG" width="450"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" mozallowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" src="https://embed-ssl.ted.com/talks/donald_hoffman_do_we_see_reality_as_it_is.html" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="450"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zMckdYX0fTU" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
<br />
--<br />
Edit: Some of my Youtube playlists:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/videoseries?list=PL4TndZPmIk2dIDld9zBX8OLQjuoi6axDG" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/videoseries?list=PL492B3CD02E2AEDBE" width="450"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/videoseries?list=PL8BB7EC8999A88570" width="450"></iframe>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="253" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/videoseries?list=PL8C180E9C9BE7D29A" width="450"></iframe>jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-55444519114564759132016-05-26T19:08:00.002+02:002016-05-26T19:08:48.994+02:00more random quotes: scott aaronson<span id="mood">new perspectives</span><br />
So, John Horgan, the <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/End-Science-Knowledge-Twilight-Scientific/dp/0465065929">End of Science</a></i> guy, <a href="http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/scott-aaronson-answers-every-ridiculously-big-question-i-throw-at-him/">interviewed</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Aaronson">Scott Aaronson</a>, a theoretical computer scientist interested in quantum computing and computational complexity theory.<br />
<br />
In the following, some random quotes. <br />
<br />
<h3>
On Quantum Mechanics</h3>
<i> [Q]uantum mechanics is astonishingly simple—once you take the physics out
of it! In fact, QM isn’t even “physics” in the usual sense: it’s more
like an operating system that the rest of physics runs on as application
software.
<br />
<br /> [A]ccepting quantum mechanics didn’t mean giving up on the computational worldview: it meant upgrading it, making it richer than before. There was a programming language fundamentally stronger than BASIC, or Pascal, or C—at least with regard to what it let you compute in reasonable amounts of time. And yet this quantum language had clear rules of its own; there were things that not even it let you do (and one could prove that); it still wasn’t anything-goes. </i><br />
<br />
<h3>
The Computational Universe</h3>
<i> If it’s worthwhile to build the LHC or LIGO—wonderful machines that so far, have mostly triumphantly confirmed our existing theories—then it seems at least as worthwhile to build a scalable quantum computer, and thereby prove that our universe really does have this immense computational power beneath the surface. </i><br />
<br />
<i> Firstly, quantum computing has supplied probably the clearest language ever invented—namely, the language of qubits, quantum circuits, and so on—for talking about quantum mechanics itself.<br />[...]<br />Secondly, one of the most important things we’ve learned about quantum gravity—which emerged from the work of Stephen Hawking and the late Jacob Bekenstein in the 1970s—is that in quantum gravity, unlike in any previous physical theory, the total number of bits (or actually qubits) that can be stored in a bounded region of space is finite rather than infinite. In fact, a black hole is the densest hard disk allowed by the laws of physics, and it stores a “mere” 1069 qubits per square meter of its event horizon! And because of the dark energy (the thing, discovered in 1998, that’s pushing the galaxies apart at an exponential rate), the number of qubits that can be stored in our entire observable universe appears to be at most about 10122.<br />[...]<br />So, that immediately suggests a picture of the universe, at the Planck scale of 10^-33 meters or 10^-43 seconds, as this huge but finite collection of qubits being acted upon by quantum logic gates—in other words, as a giant quantum computation. </i><br />
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
The Big Picture</h3>
<i> Ideas from quantum computing and quantum information have recently entered the study of the black hole information problem—i.e., the question of how information can come out of a black hole, as it needs to for the ultimate laws of physics to be time-reversible. Related to that, quantum computing ideas have been showing up in the study of the so-called AdS/CFT (anti de Sitter / conformal field theory) correspondence, which relates completely different-looking theories in different numbers of dimensions, and which some people consider the most important thing to have come out of string theory. </i><br />
<br />
<i> [S]ome of the conceptual problems of quantum gravity turn out to involve my own field of computational complexity in a surprisingly nontrivial way. The connection was first made in 2013, in a remarkable paper by Daniel Harlow and Patrick Hayden. Harlow and Hayden were addressing the so-called “firewall paradox,” which had lit the theoretical physics world on fire (har, har) over the previous year.<br /><br /> In summary, I predict that ideas from quantum information and computation will be helpful—and possibly even essential—for continued progress on the conceptual puzzles of quantum gravity. </i><br />
<br />
<i> If civilization lasts long enough, then there’s absolutely no reason why there couldn’t be further discoveries about the natural world as fundamental as relativity or evolution. One possible example would be an experimentally-confirmed theory of a discrete structure underlying space and time, which the black-hole entropy gives us some reason to suspect is there. </i><br />
<br />
<h3>
P/NP</h3>
<i> [T]he ocean of mathematical understanding just keeps monotonically rising, and we’ve seen it reach peaks like Fermat’s Last Theorem that had once been synonyms for hopelessness. I see absolutely no reason why the same ocean can’t someday swallow P vs. NP, provided our civilization lasts long enough. In fact, whether our civilization will last long enough is by far my biggest uncertainty. </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i> More seriously, it was realized in the 1970s that techniques borrowed from mathematical logic—the ones that Gödel and Turing wielded to such great effect in the 1930s—can’t possibly work, by themselves, to resolve P vs. NP. Then, in the 1980s, there were some spectacular successes, using techniques from combinatorics, to prove limitations on restricted types of algorithms. Some experts felt that a proof of P≠NP was right around the corner. But in the 1990s, Alexander Razborov and Steven Rudich discovered something mind-blowing: that the combinatorial techniques from the 1980s, if pushed just slightly further, would start “biting themselves in the rear end,” and would prove NP problems to be easier at the same time they were proving them to be harder! Since it’s no good to have a proof that also proves the opposite of what it set out to prove, new ideas were again needed to break the impasse. </i><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
<br />Musings</h3>
<i>This characteristic of quantum mechanics—the way it stakes out an
“intermediate zone,” where (for example) n qubits are stronger than n
classical bits, but weaker than 2n classical bits, and where
entanglement is stronger than classical correlation, but weaker than
classical communication—is so weird and subtle that no science-fiction
writer would have had the imagination to invent it. But to me, that’s
what makes quantum information interesting: that this isn’t a resource
that fits our pre-existing categories, that we need to approach it as a
genuinely new thing. </i><br />
<i><br /> [I]f scanning my brain state, duplicating it like computer
software, etc. were somehow shown to be fundamentally impossible, then I
don’t know what more science could possibly say in favor of “free will
being real”!
</i><br />
<br />
<i> I hate when the people in power are ones who just go with their gut, or
their faith, or their tribe, or their dialectical materialism, and who
don’t even feel self-conscious about the lack of error-correcting
machinery in their methods for learning about the world.
</i><br />
<br />
<i> Just in the fields that I know something about, NP-completeness,
public-key cryptography, Shor’s algorithm, the dark energy, the
Hawking-Bekenstein entropy of black holes, and holographic dualities are
six examples of fundamental discoveries from the 1970s to the 1990s that
seem able to hold their heads high against almost anything discovered
earlier (if not quite relativity or evolution).
</i>jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-91507006288829124492016-02-17T18:36:00.001+01:002016-02-17T19:20:31.408+01:00<h2>
Decoding Financial Networks:
Hidden Dangers and Effective Policies </h2>
<br />
Two changes have ushered in a new era of analyzing the complex and
interdependent world surrounding us. One is related to the increased
influx of data, furnishing the raw material for this revolution that is
now starting to impact economic thinking. The second change is due
to a subtler reason: a paradigm shift in the analysis of complex systems.<br />
<br />
The buzzword "big data" is slowly being replaced by what is becoming
established as "data science." While the cost of computer storage is
continually falling, storage capacity is increasing at an exponential
rate. In effect, seemingly endless streams of data, originating from
countless human endeavors, are continually flowing along global information
superhighways and being stored not only in server farms and
the cloud, but -- importantly -- also in the researcher's local databases.
However, collecting and storing raw data is futile if there is no way to
extract meaningful information from it. Here, the budding science of
complex systems is helping distill meaning from this data deluge.<br />
<br />
Traditional problem-solving has been strongly shaped by the success
of the reductionist approach taken in science. Put in the simplest
terms, the focus has traditionally been on things in isolation -- on the
tangible, the tractable, the malleable. But not so long ago, this focus
shifted to a subtler dimension of our reality, where the isolation is
overcome. Indeed, seemingly single and independent entities are always
components of larger units of organization and hence influence each other. Our world, while still being comprised of many of the
same "things" as in the past, has become highly networked and interdependent -- and, therefore, much more complex. From the interaction
of independent entities, the notion of a system has emerged.<br />
<br />
Understanding the structure of a system's components does not
bring insights into how the system will behave as a whole. Indeed, the
very concept of emergence fundamentally challenges our knowledge
of complex systems, as self-organization allows for novel properties -- features not previously observed in the system or its components -- to
unfold. The whole is literally more than the sum of its parts.<br />
<br />
This shift away from analyzing the structure of "things" to analyzing
their patterns of interaction represents a true paradigm shift, and
one that has impacted computer science, biology, physics and sociology.
The need to bring about such a shift in economics, too, can be
heard in the words of Andy Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of
England (Haldane 2011):<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Economics has always been desperate to burnish its scientific credentials
and this meant grounding it in the decisions of individual people. By
itself, that was not the mistake. The mistake came in thinking the behavior
of the system was just an aggregated version of the behavior of the
individual. Almost by definition, complex systems do not behave like this.
[...] Interactions between agents are what matters. And the key to that
is to explore the underlying architecture of the network, not the behavior
of any one node.</blockquote>
<br />
In a nutshell, the key to the success of complexity science lies in ignoring
the complexity of the components while quantifying the structure
of interactions. An ideal abstract representation of a complex system is
given by a graph -- a complex network. This field has been emerging
in a modern form since about the turn of the millennium (Watts and
Strogatz 1998; Barabasi and Albert 1999; Albert and Barabasi 2002;
Newman 2003).<br />
<br />
Underpinning economics with insights from complex systems
requires
a major culture change in how economics is conducted. Specialized
knowledge needs to be augmented with a diversity of expertise.
Or, in the words of Jean-Claude Trichet, former president of
the European Central Bank (Trichet 2010):<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I would very much welcome inspiration from other disciplines: physics,
engineering, psychology, biology. Bringing experts from these fields together
with economists and central bankers is potentially very creative
and valuable. Scientists have developed sophisticated tools for analyzing
complex dynamic systems in a rigorous way.</blockquote>
<br />
What's more, scientists themselves have acknowledged this call for
action (see, e.g., Schweitzer
et al. 2009; Farmer et al. 2012).<br />
<br />
In what follows, I will present two case studies that provide an initial
glimpse of the potential of applying such a data-driven and network-inspired type of research to economic systems. By uncovering
patterns of organization otherwise hidden in the data, these studies
caught the attention not only of scholars and the general public, but
also of policymakers.<br />
<br />
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
The network of global corporate control</h3>
A specific constraint related to the analysis of economic and financial
systems lies in an unfortunate relative lack of data. While other fields
are flooded with data, in the realm of economics, a lot of potentially
valuable information is deemed proprietary and not disclosed for strategic
reasons. A viable detour is utilizing a good proxy that is exhaustive
and widely available.<br />
<br />
Ownership data, representing the percentages of equity a shareholder
has in certain companies, is such a dataset. The structure of the
ownership network is thought to be a good proxy for that of the financial
network (Vitali, Glattfelder and Battiston 2011). However, this is
not the main reason for analyzing such a dataset. Ownership networks
represent an interface between the fields of economics and complex
networks because information on ownership relations crucially
unlocks knowledge relating to the global power of corporations. As a matter
of fact, ownership gives a certain degree of control to the shareholder.
In other words, the signature of corporate control is encoded in
these networks (Glattfelder 2013). These and similar issues are also
investigated in the field of corporate governance.<br />
<br />
Bureau van Dijk's commercial Orbis database comprises about
37 million economic actors (e.g., physical persons, governments, foundations
and firms) located in 194 countries as well as roughly 13 million
directed and weighted ownership links for the year 2007. In a first step,
a cross-country analysis of this ownership snapshot was performed
(Glattfelder and Battiston 2009). A key finding was that the more control
was locally dispersed, the higher the global concentration of control lay
in the hands of a few powerful shareholders. This is in contrast to the
economic idea of "widely held" firms in the United States (Berle and
Means 1932). In fact, these results show that the true picture can only be
unveiled by considering the whole network of interdependence. By simply
focusing on the first level of ownership, one is misled by a mirage.<br />
<br />
In a next step, the Orbis data was used to construct the global network
of ownership. By focusing on the 43,060 transnational corporations
(TNCs) found in the data, a new network was constructed that
comprised all the direct and indirect shareholders and subsidiaries of
the TNCs. Then, this network of TNCs, containing 600,508 nodes and
1,006,987 links, was further analyzed (Vitali, Glattfelder and Battiston
2011). Figure 1 shows a small sample of the network.<br />
<br />
Analyzing the topology of the TNC network reveals the first signs
of an organizational principle at work. One can see that the network is
actually made up of many interconnected sub-networks that are not
connected among themselves. The cumulative distribution function
of the size of these connected components follows a power law, as
there are 23,824 such components varying in size from many single
isolated nodes to a cluster of 230 connected nodes. However, the largest
connected component (LCC) represents an outlier in the powerlaw
distribution, as it contains 464,006 nodes and 889,601 links.<br />
<br />
This super-cluster contains only 36 percent of all TNCs. In effect,
most TNCs "prefer" to be part of isolated components that comprise a few hundred nodes at most. But what can be said about the TNCs in
the LCC? By adding a proxy for the value or size of firms, the network
analysis can be extended. In the study, the operating revenue was
used for the value of firms. Now it is possible to see where the valuable
TNCs are located in the network. Strikingly, the 36 percent of TNCs in
the LCC account for 94 percent of the total TNC operating revenue.
This finding justifies focusing further analysis solely on the LCC.<br />
<br />
In general, assigning a value v_j to firm j gives additional meaning
to the ownership network. As mentioned, a good proxy reflecting the
economic value of a company is the operating revenue. Assigning
such a non-topological variable to the nodes uncovers a deeper level of
information embedded in the network. If shareholder i holds a fraction
W_{ij} of the shares of firm j, W_{ij} v_j represents the value that i holds
in j. Accordingly, the portfolio value of firm i is given by<br />
p_i = sum_j W_{ij} v_j, (1.1)<br />
However, in
ownership networks, there are also chains of indirect ownership
80
links. For instance, firm i can gain value from firm k via firm j, if i
holds shares in j, which, in turn, holds shares in k. Symbolically, this
can be denoted as i -> j -> k.<br />
<br />
Using these building blocks, and the fact that ownership is related
to control, a methodology is introduced that estimates the degree of
influence that each agent wields as a result of the network of ownership
relations. In other words, a network centrality measure is provided
that not only accounts for the structure of the shareholding relations,
but -- crucially -- also incorporates the distribution of value. This allows
for the top shareholders to be identified. As it turns out, 730 top
shareholders have the potential to control 80 percent of the total
operating
revenue of all TNCs. In effect, this measure of influence is
one order of magnitude more concentrated than the distribution of
operating revenue. These top shareholders are comprised of financial
institutions located in the United States and the United Kingdom (note that holding many ownership links does not necessarily result in a high value of influence).<br />
<br />
Combining these two dimensions of analysis -- that is, the topology
and the shareholder ranking -- finally uncovers yet another pattern
of organization. A striking feature of the LCC is that it has a tiny
but distinct core of 1,318 nodes that are highly interconnected (12,191
links). Analyzing the identity of the firms present in this core reveals
that many of them are also top shareholders. Indeed, the 147 most
influential shareholders in the core can potentially control 38 percent
of the total operating revenue of all TNCs. In other words, a "superentity" with disproportional power is identified in the already powerful
core, akin to a fractal structure.<br />
<br />
This emerging power structure in the global ownership network
has possible negative implications. For instance, as will be discussed
in the next section, global systemic risk is sensitive to the connectivity
of the network (Battiston et al. 2007; Lorenz and Battiston 2008; Wagner
2009; Stiglitz 2010; Battiston et al. 2012a). Moreover, global market
competition is threatened by potential collusion (O'Brien and
Salop
2001; Gilo, Moshe and Spiegel 2006).<br />
<br />
Subjecting a comprehensive global economic dataset to a detailed
network analysis has the power to unveil organizational patterns that
have previously gone undetected. Although the exact numbers in the
study should be taken with a grain of salt, they still give a good first
approximation. For instance, the very different methods that can be
used to estimate control from ownership all provide very similar aggregated
network statistics.<br />
<br />
Finally, although it cannot be proved that the top influencers actually
exert their power or are able to leverage their privileged position,
it is also impossible to rule out such activities -- especially since these
channels for relaying power can be utilized in a covert manner. In any
case, the degree of influence assigned to the shareholders can be understood
as the probability of achieving one's own interest against the
opposition of the other actors -- a notion reminiscent of Max Weber's
idea of potential power (Weber 1978).<br />
<br />
An ongoing research effort aims to extend this analysis to include
additional annual snapshots of the global ownership network up to
2012. The focus now lies on the dynamics and evolution of the network.
In particular, the stability of the core over time will be analyzed.
Preliminary results on a small subset of the data suggest that the
structure of the core is indeed stable. If verified, this would imply that
the emergent power structure is resilient to forces reshaping the network
architecture, such as the global financial crisis. The structure
could also potentially be resistant to market reforms and regulatory
efforts.<br />
<br />
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
DebtRank</h3>
In an interconnected system, the notion of risk can assume many
guises. The simplest and most obvious manifestation is that of individual
risk. The colloquialism "too big to fail" captures the promise
that further disaster can be averted by identifying and assisting the
major players. This approach, however, does not work in a network.
In systems where the agents are connected and therefore codependent, the relevant measure is systemic risk. Only by understanding
the architecture of the network's connectivity can the propagation of
financial distress through the system be understood. In essence, systemic
risk is akin to the process of an epidemic spreading through a
population.<br />
<br />
A naive intuition would suggest that by increasing the interconnectivity
of the system, the threat of systemic risk is reduced. In other
words, the overall system should be more resilient when agents diversify
their individual risks by increasing the shared links with other
agents. Unfortunately, this can be shown to be false (Battiston et al.
2012a). Granted, in systems with feedback loops, such as financial
systems, initial individual risk diversification can indeed start off by
reducing systemic risk. However, there is a threshold related to the
level of connectivity, and once it has been reached, any additional diversification
effort will only result in increased systemic risk. Above
this certain value, feedback loops and amplifications can lead to a
knife-edge property, in which case stability is suddenly compromised.<br />
<br />
Now a paradox emerges: Although individual financial agents become
more resistant to shocks coming from their own business, the
overall probability of failure in the system increases. In the worst-case
scenario, the efforts of individual agents to manage their own risk
increase the chances that other agents in the system will experience
distress, thereby creating more systemic risk than the risk they reduced
via risk-sharing. Against this backdrop, the highly interconnected
core of the global ownership network looms ominously.<br />
<br />
To summarize, in the presence of a network, it is not enough to
simply identify the big players that have the potential to damage the
system should they experience financial distress. Instead, it is crucial
to analyze the network of codependency. The phrase "too connected to
fail" captures this focus. However, for this approach to be implemented,
a full-blown network analysis is required. Insights can only
be gained by simulating the dynamics of such a system on its underlying
network structure. For instance, one cannot calculate analytically
the threshold of connectivity past which diversification has a destabilizing
effect.<br />
<br />
Still, there is a final step that can be taken in analyzing systemic risk
in networks. Next to "too big to fail" (which focuses on the nodes) and "too connected to fail" (which incorporates the links), a third layer can be
added by utilizing a more sophisticated network measure called "centrality." In a nutshell, a node's centrality simply depends on its neighbors' centrality. For example, PageRank, the algorithm that Google uses
to rank websites in its search-engine results, is a centrality measure. A
webpage is more important if other important webpages link to it. Recall
also that the methodology for computing the degree of influence that
was discussed in the previous section is another example of centrality.<br />
<br />
A study focusing on this "too central to fail" notion of systemic risk
has been conducted (Battiston et al. 2012b). The work employed previously
confidential data on the 2008 crisis gathered by the US Federal
Reserve to assess systemic risk as part of the Fed's emergency loans
program. Inspired by the methodology behind the computation of
shareholder influence and PageRank, a novel centrality measure for
tracking systemic risk, called DebtRank, is introduced.<br />
<br />
In the study, debt data from the Fed is augmented with the ownership
data used in the analysis of the network of global corporate control.
As mentioned, the ownership network is a valid proxy for the
undisclosed financial network linking banks. The data also includes
detailed information on daily balance sheets for 407 institutions that,
together, received bailout funds worth $1.2 trillion from the Fed. The
data covers 1,000 days from before, during and after the peak of the
crisis, from August 2007 to June 2010. The study focuses on the
22 banks that collectively received three-quarters of that bailout
money. It is interesting to observe that almost all of these banks were
members of the "super-entity."<br />
<br />
DebtRank computes the likelihood that a bank will default as well
as how much this would damage the creditworthiness of the other
banks in the network. In essence, the measure extends the notion of
default contagion into that of distress propagation. Crucially, Debt-
Rank proposes a quantitative method for monitoring institutions in a
network and identifying the ones that are the most important for the
stability of the system.<br />
<br />
Figure 2 shows an "X-ray image" of the global financial crisis unfolding.
It is striking to observe how many of the major players are affected
and how some individual institutions threaten the majority of the economic
value in the network (a DebtRank value larger than 0.5). Indeed,
if a bank with a DebtRank value close to one defaults, it could potentially
obliterate the economic value of the entire system. And, finally, the issue of "too central to fail" becomes dauntingly visible: Even institutions
with relatively small asset size can become fragile and threaten
a large part of the economy. The condition for this to happen is given
by the position in the network as measured by the centrality.<br />
<br />
In a forthcoming publication (Battiston et al. 2015), the notion of
DebtRank is re-expressed making use of the more common notion of
leverage, defined as the ratio between an institution's assets and equity.
From this starting point, the authors develop a stress-test framework
that allows the computation of a whole set of systemic risk measures.
Again, since detailed data on the bilateral exposures between financial
institutions is not publicly available, the true architecture of the financial
network cannot be observed. In order to overcome this problem, the
framework utilizes Monte Carlo samples of networks with realistic topologies
(i.e., network realizations that match the aggregate level of interbank
exposure for each financial institution).<br />
<br />
As an illustrative exercise, the authors run the framework on a set of
European banks, with empirical data comprising the aggregated interbank
lending and borrowing volumes having been obtained from
Bankscope, which covers 183 EU banks. The interbank network is reconstructed
for the years 2008 to 2013 using the so-called fitness model.
Importantly, the attention is placed not only on first-round effects of an
initial shock, but also on the subsequent additional rounds of reverberations
within the interbank network. A crucial result is given by the following
relation:<br />
L(2) = l^b S, (1.2)<br />
where L(2) represents the total relative equity loss of the second round
of distress propagation induced by the initial shock S, and with l^b > 0
being the weighted average of the interbank leverage. In other words,
l^b is derived from the interbank assets and equity. In detail, S is computed
from the unit shock on the value of external assets and the
external
leverage, that is, from the leverage related to the assets that do
not originate from within the interbanking system.<br />
<br />
Equation (1.2) implies the highly undesirable conclusion that the
second-round effect of distress propagation is also at least as detrimental as the initial shock. This result highlights the important fact
that waves of financial distress ripple multiple times through the network
in a way that intensifies the problem for the individual nodes.
This mechanism only truly becomes visible in a network analysis of
the system. In empirical terms, this result is also compelling, as levels
of interbank leverage are often around a value of two. In this light, the
distress in the second round can be twice as big as the initial distress
on the external assets. To conclude, neglecting second-round effects
could therefore lead to a severe underestimation of systemic risk.<br />
<br />
<h3>
</h3>
<h3>
Outlook for policy-making</h3>
What is the added value of trying to understand the economy as an
interconnected complex system? The most important result to mention in this context is the power of such analysis to uncover hidden
features that would otherwise go undetected. Stated simply, the intractable
complexity of financial systems can be decoded and understood
by unraveling the underlying network.<br />
<br />
A prime example of a network analysis uncovering unsuspected latent
features is the detection of the tiny, but highly interconnected core
of powerful actors in the global ownership network. It is a novel finding
that the most influential companies do not conduct their business in
isolation, but rather are entangled in an extremely intricate web of control.
Notice, however, that the very existence of such a small, powerful
and self-controlled group of financial institutions was unsuspected in the economics literature. Indeed, its existence is in stark contrast with
many theories on corporate governance (see, e.g., Dore 2002).<br />
<br />
However, understanding the structure of interaction in a complex
system is only the first step. Once the underlying network architecture
is made visible, the resulting dynamics of such systems can be
analyzed. Recall that distress spreads through the network like an
epidemic, infecting one node after another. In other words, the true
understanding of the notion of systemic risk in a financial setting
crucially relies on the knowledge of this propagation mechanism,
which again is determined by the network topology. As discussed
above, in a real-world setting in which feedback loops can act as amplifiers,
the second-round effect of an initial shock is also at least as big
as the initial impact. It should be noted that the notorious "bank stress
tests" also aim at assessing such risks. More specifically, it is analyzed
whether, under unfavorable economic scenarios, banks have enough
capital to withstand the impact of adverse developments. Unfortunately,
while commendable, these efforts only emphasize first-round
effects and therefore potentially underestimate the true dangers to a
significant degree. A recent example is the Comprehensive Assessment
conducted by the European Central Bank in 2014, which included
the Asset Quality Review.<br />
<br />
A first obvious application of the knowledge derived from a complex-systems
approach to finance and economics is related to monitoring the
health of the system. For instance, DebtRank allows systemic risk to be
measured along two dimensions: the potential impact of an institution on
the whole system as well as the vulnerability of an institution exposed to
the distress of others. This identifies the most dangerous culprits, namely,
institutions with both high vulnerability and impact. In Figure 3,
the whole extent of the financial crisis becomes apparent, as high vulnerability
was indeed compounded with high impact in 2008. In 2013,
high vulnerability was offset by relatively low impact.<br />
<br />
In addition to analyzing the health of the financial system at the
level of individual actors, an index could be constructed that incorporates
and aggregates the many facets of systemic risk. In this case,
sectors and countries could also be scrutinized. A final goal would be the implementation of forecasting techniques. What probable trajectories
leading into crisis emerge from the current state of the system?
As Haldane (2011) noted in contemplating the idea of forecasting economic
turbulences:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
It would allow regulators to issue the equivalent of weather-warnings -- storms brewing over Lehman Brothers, credit default swaps and Greece.
It would enable advice to be issued -- keep a safe distance from Bear
Stearns, sub-prime mortgages and Icelandic banks. And it would enable "what-if?" simulations to be run -- if UK bank Northern Rock is the first
domino, what will be the next?</blockquote>
<br />
In essence, a data- and complex systems-driven approach to finance
and economics has the power to comprehensively assess the true state
of the system. This offers crucial information to policymakers. By
shedding light on previously invisible vulnerabilities inherent in our
interconnected economic world, the blindfolds of ignorance can be
removed, paving the way to policies that effectively mitigate systemic
risk and avert future global crises.<br />
<br />
<br />
<h3>
References and Figures</h3>
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<div class="graf--p" name="8383">
This was a chapter contribution to <a class="markup--anchor markup--p-anchor" data-href="https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/de/publikationen/publikation/did/to-the-man-with-a-hammer/" href="https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/de/publikationen/publikation/did/to-the-man-with-a-hammer/"><i class="markup--em markup--p-em">“To the Man with a Hammer: Augmenting the Policymaker’s Toolbox for a Complex World”</i></a>, Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2016:</div>
<blockquote class="graf--blockquote" name="e3cc">
This article collection helps point the way forward. Gathering a distinguished panel of complexity experts and policy innovators, it provides concrete examples of promising insights and tools, drawing from complexity science, the digital revolution and interdisciplinary approaches.</blockquote>
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Table of contents:<br />
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See also <i><a href="http://www.stifterverband.org/veranstaltungen/2016_02_16_oekonomie_neu_denken">"Ökonomie neu denken"</a></i>, February 16, 2016, Frankfurt am Main and <i><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncMaKs_QqSQ#t=1h15m35s">Podiumsdiskussion</a></i>.<br />
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<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-24826046904278888962015-12-11T12:06:00.000+01:002015-12-11T12:09:52.356+01:00At the Dawn of Human Collective Intelligence<span id="mood">trusting the universe to reach ever higher levels of complexity</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span>
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>
The following was a contribution first published on the 30th of November 2015 in
“<a href="http://howtosavehumanity.com/">HOW TO SAVE HUMANITY</a> — Essays and answers from the desks of futurists,
economists, biologists, humanitarians, entrepreneurs, activists and
other people who spend a lot of time caring about, improving, and
supporting the future of humanity.”
</i></span><br />
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<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>It is</b> </span>an interesting idiosyncrasy of our times that we have become increasingly accustomed to the ongoing success of the human mind in probing reality and understanding the world we live in. Indeed, the relevance of this ever growing body of knowledge, describing the universe and ourselves in greater and greater detail, cannot be overstated. But today, even the most breathtaking technological breakthroughs, fostered by this knowledge, can hardly capture the collective attention span for long. It is as if we have come to expect our technological abilities to steadily accelerate and reach breakneck speeds.
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On the other hand, we have also become very accustomed, and alarmingly indifferent and unconcerned, about the state of human affairs. As a species, our recent terraforming activities have fundamentally transformed the biosphere we rely on, resulting in considerable impact for us individually. In a nutshell, we have devised linear systems that extract resources at one end, which, after being consumed, are disposed of at the other end. However, on a finite planet, extraction soon becomes exploitation and disposal results in pollution.
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<br />
Today, this can be witnesses at unprecedented global scales. Just consider the following: substantial levels of pesticides and BPA in vast populations and even remote populations (like Inuit women whose breast milk is toxic due to pollutants accumulating in the ocean’s food chain), increase of chronic diseases, antimicrobial resistance, the Great Pacific and the North Atlantic garbage patches, e-waste, exploding levels of greenhouse gases, peak oil and phosphorus, land degradation, deforestation, water pollution, food waste, overfishing, dramatic loss of biodiversity,. . . The list is constantly growing as we await the arrival of the next billion human inhabitants on this planet.
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2uFD3YRFY_8/Vmqtdmxdp2I/AAAAAAAACpk/Fafc5FsA07w/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2015-12-11%2Bat%2B12.02.40%2BPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2uFD3YRFY_8/Vmqtdmxdp2I/AAAAAAAACpk/Fafc5FsA07w/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2015-12-11%2Bat%2B12.02.40%2BPM.png" /></a>Compounding this acute problem is the fact that today’s generations are living at the expense of future generations, ecologically and economically. For instance, we have reached Earth Overshoot Day in 2015 on the 13th of August. Each year, this day measures when human consumption of Earth’s natural resources, or humanity’s ecological footprint, approximately reaches the world’s biocapacity to generated those natural resources in a year. Since the introduction of this measure in 1970, when the 23rd of December marked Earth Overshoot Day, this tipping point has been occurring earlier and earlier. Moreover, just check the Global Debt Clock, recording public debt worldwide, to see an incomprehensibly and frighteningly high figure, casting an ominous shadow over future prosperity. Yes, the outlook is very dire indeed.
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<h3>
The Two Modes of Intelligence
</h3>
In essence, we have an abundance of individual intelligence, fueling knowledge generation and technological proficiency, but an acute lack of collective intelligence, which would allow our species to co-evolve and co-exists in a sustainable manner with the biosphere that keeps it alive. This is the true enigma of our modern times: why does individual intelligence not foster collective intelligence? Take, for instance, a single termite. The biological capacity for cognition is very limited. However, as a collective swarm, the termites engineer nests they equip with air-conditioning capabilities, ensuring a constant inside temperature allowing the termites to cultivate a fungus which digest food for them they could otherwise not utilize. Now take any human. Amazing feats of higher cognitive functioning are manifested: self-awareness, sentience, language capability, creativity, abstract reasoning, formation and defense of beliefs, and much, much more. Remarkably but regrettably, multiplying this amazing potential and capacity times a few billion results in our current sate of affairs.<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZYJpnRRlFYU/VmqrVNtwfxI/AAAAAAAACo0/cu7tpPsxYvA/s1600/q3.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZYJpnRRlFYU/VmqrVNtwfxI/AAAAAAAACo0/cu7tpPsxYvA/s320/q3.png" width="320" /></a>It is interesting to note that all biological systems do not feature centralized decision making. There are no architect or engineering termites overseeing construction, no CPU in our brains responsible for consciousness. This decentralized and bottom up approach appears to result in the emergence of collective intelligence, in other words, in self-organization, adaptivity, and resilience. Indeed, this incredible robustness of biological complex systems is most probably the reason why we still can continue with “business as usual” despite the continued devastating blows we have delivered to the biosphere. In stark contrast to these natural systems, all human systems, from political to economic, are all characterized by centralized governance. This top down approach to collective organization appears to systematically lack adaptivity, resilience, and, most importantly, sustainability.<br />
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<h3>
The Zeitgeist and Beyond</h3>
We truly live in tumultuous times. Next to the increasing external pressures just outlined, we are also exposed directly to our own destructiveness. In a global environment where ignorance, myopia, denial, cynicism, indifference, callousness, alienation, disenchantment, and superficiality reign it is not surprising to witness the rise of fundamentalism and violence in all corners of the world. Neither is it really surprising that many people then try and escape this angst short-term by distracting consumerism and numbing materialism overall. Which then leads to the next predicament:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
This is a strange, rather perverse story. Just to put it in very simple terms: it’s a story about us, people, being persuaded to spend money we don’t have, on things we don’t need, to create impressions that won’t last, on people we don’t care about.</blockquote>
<i>(Tim Jackson’s 2010 TED talk.)</i><br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The reality of the society we’re in, is there are thousands and thousands of people out there, leading lives of quiet scream- ing desperation, where they work long hard hours, at jobs they hate, to enable them to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t like.</blockquote>
<i>(Nigel Marsh’s 2011 TED talk.)</i><br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Huge swathes of people, in Europe and North America in particular, spend their entire working lives performing tasks they secretly believe do not really need to be performed. The moral and spiritual damage that comes from this situa- tion is profound. It is a scar across our collective soul. Yet virtually no one talks about it.</blockquote>
<i>(David Graeber, “On the Phenomenon of Bullshit Jobs”, 2013.)</i><br />
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Our collective psyche is suffering under the current zeitgeist. In just a few decades the complexity and uncertainty of the lives we lead has dramatically increased and we now struggle even harder to find meaning. So, was this it? Are we simply yet another civilization at the precipice of its demise? Are we just a very brief, albeit spectacular, perturbation in the billion year history of life on Earth, which will undoubtedly adapt and continue for billions of years until our sun runs out of fuel?<br />
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<h3>
At the Dawn</h3>
Perhaps things are not as they seem. Maybe the chaotic paths to destruction or survival really are only separated by the metaphorical flapping of the wings of a butterfly. In the case at hand, a mere flicker in the minds of people — for instance, a radical and contagious thought or idea — could alter the course of history.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rAImPC-rgMg/Vmqs6FMVTAI/AAAAAAAACpY/w24_jfgJxqw/s1600/q4.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rAImPC-rgMg/Vmqs6FMVTAI/AAAAAAAACpY/w24_jfgJxqw/s400/q4.png" /></a>Indeed, perhaps acquiring collective intelligence is not as hard as we might imagine. What is missing is possibly a subtle change in the way we perceive and think of ourselves and the world we inhabit; a change that would initiate a true shift in our behavior which could lead to adaptive, resilient, and sustainable human systems and interactions. Maybe the difficulty lies in the simple fact that we all first need to focus on ourselves for the common ground to emerge which would allow global change to flourish on.<br />
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One of the earliest and strongest constraints everyone of us as child is confronted with is the imprinting of local and static sociocultural and religious narratives, mostly emphasizing external authority. To resist this initial molding requires a very critical and open-minded worldview, not something every human child comes equipped with. What would happen if we would replace these obviously dysfunctional foundational stories that we have been telling our children? What if we, as a species, agreed to convey ideas to the next generation which do not simply depend on the geographic location of birth but represent something more functional, universal, and unifying? Ideas that also stress self-responsibility and self-reliance?<br />
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Modern neuroscience heavily emphasizes the plasticity of the human brain. This neuroplasticity reflects how the brain’s circuits constantly get rewired due to changes not only in the environment, but crucially also in response to inner changes within the mind. Cultivating different thought patterns results in different neural networks. As a consequence, we should never underestimate how untainted young brains, exposed to novel empowering ideas, could result in a generation of “new” humans, significantly different from the last one. Possibly some of the following ideas could meet this challenge — ideas capable of transforming the inner space of the mind and thus having the power to emanate into the outer world.<br />
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<h3>
Cultivating a Responsible, Dynamic, and Inclusive Mindset</h3>
First, acknowledge that you are not the center of the universe. The local “reality bubble” you live in is arbitrary and infused with ideas relevant to the past. Your way of life is not representative or defining for the human species. Foreign ideas, beliefs, and ways of life are as justified as your own ones. The way you perceive reality depends on the exact levels of dozens of neurotransmitters and the biologically evolved hardwiring in your brain. In efect, what appears as real and true is always contingent and relative. Reality could be vastly richer, bigger, and more complex than anyone ever dared to dream. And never forget to appreciate the amazing string of measurable coincidences that had to conspire for you to read this sentence: from the creation of space, time, and energy, to the formation of the first heavy elements in the burning cores of stars which then got scattered into the cosmos when they exploded as supernovae and started to assemble into organic matter, which could store information and spontaneously began to replicate, sparking the evolution of life, which gradually reached ever higher and higher levels of complexity until a lump of organic matter, organized as a network of dozens of billions of nodes and roughly 100 trillion links, became self-aware.<br />
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Secondly, place yourself into the center of your universe. You alone are in charge of your life and solely responsible for your actions. You have the freedom in your mind to choose how you respond to internal urges and external influences. You can strive to cultivate a state of happiness and gratitude in your mind, regardless of the circumstances outside of your mind. Embrace change and accept that impermanence is an immutable fact of life. Let go of the illusion of control.<br />
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Finally, cultivate a dynamic and inclusive mindset. Assume that all people act to the best of their possibilities and capacities. Face the fact that you can be very wrong in the beliefs you deeply cherish and avoid the illusion of knowledge. Be open to the possibility that other people could be right. Allow your beliefs and ideas to be malleable, adaptive, and self-correcting. Try and strike a healthy balance between critical thinking and openmindedness.<br />
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Can we dare to imagine a future, when we teach our children to be empathetic but critical thinkers? When we teach them to be independent and not to seek acknowledgment form others but only themselves? When we teach them not to fear and discriminate against what is perceived as different and foreign; not to fear change and frantically cling on to the status quo, but to face the never ending challenges of life with confidence and trust? Imagine the collective intelligence that could emerge from a “swarm” of such individuals, emphasizing social inclusion next to cultivating a deep feeling of connectedness to the matrix of life and a profound appreciation of being an integral part of the enigma of existence. Simply by leaving out one generation’s worth of flawed and harmful imprinting, and by filling the arising void with radically functional and dynamic ideas and concepts, has the power to change everything.<br />
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<h3>
The First Rays of Light</h3>
What if we already are in the middle of the transition and have not yet realized that it is happening? Despite the fact that we are still fueling dysfunctional collective ideas, perhaps we are already witnessing the beginning of a profound paradigm shift towards collective intelligence.<br />
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Take the recent emergence of decentralized financial and economic interactions that are slowly disrupting the status quo. For instance, the nascent rise of the blockchain ledger in a trustless peer-to-peer network enabling unthinkable new ways of human economic cooperation. Or the impact of free-access and free-content collaborative efforts providing us with unrestricted availability of nearly unlimited knowledge and constantly evolving, cutting-edge software. Or peer-to-peer lending, crowdfunding, and crowd-sourcing with the capacity to leverage the network effect created by a collective of like-minded people. And not to forget the success of shareconomies, offering a radically different blueprint to the way business has been conducted in the past. All these new technologies are based on bottom up, dynamic, decentralized, networked, unconstrained, and self-organizing human interactions. It is impossible to gauge the future impact of these systems today. Similarly, imagine trying to asses the potential of a new technology, called the Internet, in the early 1990s. No one had the audacity to predict what today has emerged form this initial network, then comprised of a few million computers, now affecting every aspect of modern human life.<br />
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We are truly living in a brave new world of unprecedented potential, where future utopias or dystopias are only separated by a thought, an idea, a behavior able to replicate and trigger self-organizing and adaptive collective action. So, where will you be at the dawning of human collective intelligence?<br />
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<br />jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-3821259915020729072015-07-22T15:01:00.001+02:002016-12-01T10:48:05.414+01:00The Consciousness of Reality / The Illusion of Knowledge<span id="mood">back in the game;)</span><br />
The following is another iteration of my little hobby (see the "Evolution Section" at the end):
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This talk is basically based on Parts II and III of the book I'm currently writing, with the working title:
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>The Illusion of Knowledge:
</b></i></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><b>Why Uncertainty is Woven into Any
Description of Reality—And Why It Does Not Matter
</b></i></div>
<br />
Part I focusses on formal thought systems, mathematics, and physics---in great detail, as witnessed by the over 140 equations introduced to the reader. In essence, Part I is a testimony to the human mind's unprecedented understanding of the workings of the reality it finds itself embedded in. Then, in Part II, notions of certainty are deconstructed, with respect to knowledge, truth, and reality. The subjective, context-dependent, and ambiguous nature of every experience and belief is emphasized.<br />
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So where does this leave us? Do we really live in a cynical universe, which reveals itself to the human mind just as far as it awakens the false hope in its comprehensibility and leaves us forever in a state of epistemological nihilism? I sincerely believe otherwise: enter Part III. With brave, radical, out-of-the-box thinking, I believe we can advance our knowledge of the most fundamental questions relating to our existence and existence itself. Some such ideas are: the information-theoretic and information-processing foundation of reality (universe as computer, reality as a simulation) next to the primacy and/or universality of consciousness (consciousness creates reality).<br />
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The TOK so far:
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The book will be an open access publication with <a href="http://www.springer.com/series/5342">Springer</a>. Yes, at one point I will try and crowd-fund the costs;)
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The slides are found <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/3v5kz43nbkq33xs/tedxsf_jbg.pdf?dl=0">here</a> and the transcript of the talk reads:<br />
<br />
<i>What is real? Well, all of this obviously. But what exactly is it? OK, so you all woke up this morning.
</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>A sense of self kicked in. [break] Memories returned. [break] And you became aware of an external world. So, you are an entity that exist in a physical reality.
</i><br />
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<i>But this begs three questions. [break] What can we know about these things? [break] What is the true nature of reality? [break] And what is an “I” anyway? OK, so let’s start with the question of knowledge.
</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>“The more you know, the less you understand.” [break] “I know that I know nothing.” To be fair, these quotes are quite old. Surely today people are less uncertain. Well…
</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>“Those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt.” This is from the great philosopher and mathematician Bertrand Russell. [break] “While differing widely in the various little bits we know, in our infinite ignorance we are all equal.” Karl Popper was one of the most influential philosophers of science. And in the same vein: [break] “Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” Daniel Kahneman is the father of behavioral economics and a Nobel laureate. OK, so let’s agree that from a philosophical point of view the notion of certainty is a bit tricky. But we have science, which is a knowledge-‐generation machine. Or not?
</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>Ever since the Pythagoreans, people have realized that the book of nature is written in the language of mathematics. Or in the words of the great mathematician David Hilbert: [break] “Mathematics is the foundation of all exact knowledge of natural phenomena.” But this raises a very profound question.
</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>“What is it that breathes fire into the equations and makes a universe for them to describe?” [break] So, basically, “Two miracles confront us here: the existence of laws of nature and the human mind's capacity to divine them.” You all know Stephen Hawking and Eugene Wigner received the Nobel prize in physics in the 60s. Physicists have o]en been puzzled about the general nature of science, because
</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>“Fundamentally, we do not know why our theories work so well.” [break] And “The deeper an explanation is, the more new problems it creates.” David Deutsch is one of the pioneers of quantum computing. But the bewilderment does not stop here.
</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>“There is no logical path to these laws; only intuition can reach them.” [break] “Perhaps it is culture rather than nature that dictates the content of scientific theories.” Now intuition and culture don’t usually spring to mind when thinking about science. And are also not really ideas one would associates with these two great physicists.
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<i>So, yes, science works and gives us the amazing gift of technology. But what science exactly is and why it works no one really knows. And surprisingly, Kurt Gödel and Gregory Chaitin showed us that at the heart of mathematics lurks incompleteness and randomness. OK, to summarize: What we have been talking about is called epistemology. It is the branch of philosophy concerned with the nature of knowledge. But just because our knowledge of reality turns out to be a bit elusive doesn’t mean that reality itself should be suspect. Now ontology is the word philosophers use when dealing with the nature of reality. OK, so, let’s move on to this question, what about the nature of reality? Well…
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<i><br /></i>
<i>“Modern physics has conquered domains that display an ontology that cannot be coherently captured or understood by human reasoning.” Ernst von Glasersfeld was a distinguished philosopher who coined the term “radical constructivism”. This is the idea, that all knowledge is always subjective. But what exactly is he talking about here?
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<i><br /></i>
<i>Let’s zoom into the fabric of reality. In other words, let’s enter the quantum world. [break] These are symbols from the book of nature. This equation describes the birth of quantum physics. Something no one saw coming. Indeed, Max Planck introduced it in an act of despair. [break] And it turns out that this new realm of reality is a truly bizarre place. Particles behave as waves and vice versa, depending on how you look at them. [break] There is an intrinsic limit to the amount of information you can have. [break] And everything is instantaneously connected to everything else. This is called entanglement and you can use it to encrypt information. But things get worse. Some quantum experiments are truly mindboggling: they appear to alter the past or break causality.
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<i><br /></i>
<i>OK, let’s look at the universe. What is out there? [break] Well it turns out that of all the stuff there is, only 5% is ordinary matter. 26% is called dark matter, and no one really knows what it is made of. And 69% is dark energy, some mysterious force in the vacuum making our universe expanded faster and faster the bigger it gets. This was discovered in 1998 and was awarded with a Nobel prize.
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<i><br /></i>
<i>And even things as innocuous as time, can be very problematic on closer inspection. So much so, that some physicists suspect it doesn’t really exist. [break] “The passage of time is simply an illusion created by our brains.” [break] And what about emergence and self-‐organization. This is a map of the internet. It is as though there is a fundamental force in the universe driving it to ever higher levels of complexity and structure. Just look at ants: where does this collective intelligence come from that allows them to become such an amazingly clever super-‐organism. And why can’t we humans achieve this?
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<i><br /></i>
<i>OK , so reality is indeed a very weird place. But perhaps we can find a sanctuary of clarity and regularity within ourselves.
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<i><br /></i>
<i>Let’s look at our brains and how we perceive the world. [break] “Instead of reality being passively recorded by the brain, it is actively constructed by it.” [break] “You're not perceiving what's out there. You're perceiving whatever your brain tells you.” [break] “What we call normal perception does not really differ from hallucinations, except that the latter is not anchored by external input.” Wow. But at least I am in control of my mind. Or not?
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<i><br /></i>
<i>“The conscious mind is not at the center of action, but on a distant edge, hearing but whispers of the activity.” [break] “The exact levels of dozens of neurotransmitters are critical for who you believe yourself to be.” [break] “Beliefs about logic, economics, ethics, emotions, beauty, social interaction, love, are all products of the biologically evolved ‘hardwiring’ in the brain.”
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<i>These are the words of David Eagleman. He is a neuroscientists and writer. And yes, things get worse.
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<i><br /></i>
<i>These two books are an embarrassment to any human being who believes in rationality. Countless experiments show how easily we can be manipulated. Without ever suspecting a thing. And don’t fool yourself. We all fail equally at this.
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<i><br /></i>
<i>Other experiments have shown that the simple expectation of an experience changes how you perceive it. For instance, tasting wine you thought was expensive results in neural activity in your pleasure center. This does not happen for the same wine if you are told it is cheap. The same is true for how you feel pain. And then there are the placebo and nocebo effects, where your beliefs shape your reality. Like overdosing on sugar pills and nearly dying because you thought they were antidepressants. Then there is this phenomenon called false awakening, where you dream that you wake up. To experience this can be quite unsettling. [break] “To wake up twice in a row is something that can shatter many of the intuitions you have about consciousness: [break] that the vividness, the coherence, and the crispness of a conscious experience are evidence that you are really in touch with reality.” Thomas Metzinger is a philosopher of the mind interested in neuroscience. He asks: “Well how do you know that you actually woke up this morning?”
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<i><br /></i>
<i>And then things can go terribly wrong in the mind. This book on psychopathology is a frightening 800 pages thick.
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<i><br /></i>
<i>Jill Bolte Taylor studies brain anatomy. When she had a golf-‐ball sized blood-‐clot in her le] hemisphere due to a stroke, this is what she experienced. [break] My consciousness shifted away from my normal perception of reality, to some esoteric space where I'm witnessing myself having this experience. [break] I can no longer define the boundaries of my body -‐ I can't define where I begin and where I end. [break] I felt at one with all the energy that was, and it was beautiful there. Now these aren't really worlds I would expect from someone who’s left brain is being damaged, but rather from someone like…
</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>…this. This is Christian Rätsch. He is an anthropologist specialized in ethnopharmacology. His book, called “The Encyclopedia of Psychoactive Plants” is nearly 1’000 pages thick. And remember what Eagleman said about hallucinations: they are just as real. Perhaps this realization prompted the next quote. There are these extraordinary other types of universe. Aldous Huxley was talking about his experiences with LSD.
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<i>So what does this all mean? Where does it leave us? Well, if we are really honest, the answer is [break] We don’t know. Basically we are back to René Descartes. “I think therefore I exists”. So, the only thing I cannot deny, is that I am having a subjective experience now. That’s all. But perhaps we can do better. Perhaps if we are willing to abandon some of our cherished beliefs about reality we can start to understand more. And there is a glimmer on the horizon.
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<i><br /></i>
<i>Information is physical. [break] All things physical are information-‐theoretic. John Wheeler helped develop general relativity giving us the word black hole. And Rolf Landauer made important contributions to information processing in the 60s.
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<i><br /></i>
<i>“The universe is made not of chunks of stuff, but chunks of information — ones and zeros.” [break] “Quantum physics requires us to abandon the distinction between information and reality.” Seth Lloyd and Anton Zeilinger are currently pioneering the field of quantum information. They are helping us build quantum computers.
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<i>A second theme is that we are in fact involved in creating reality. This is an idea going back to Immanuel Kant and is also found in Buddhism. [break] “This is a participatory universe.” [break] “Reality is something that comes into being through the very act of human cognition.” [break] “Consciousness is all that exists. Space-‐time and matter never were fundamental denizens of the universe but have always been among the humbler contents of consciousness.” Richard Tarnas is a historian and author of the book “The Passion of the Western Mind”. An epic journey looking at All the ideas that have shaped our modern world view. And Donald Hoffman is a cognitive scientist. So, continuing with this idea:
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<i><br /></i>
<i>“Our belief that there is a single universe shared by multiple observers is wrong. Instead, each observer has their own universe.” [break] “This cosmic solipsism turns on all of our common sense notions about the world; then again fundamental physics has a long history of disregarding our common sense notions.” Amanda Gefter is a science journalist and author. And solipsism is the view that only one’s own mind exists. Her idea can perhaps also be summarized as follows:
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<i>Objectivity is the illusion that observations are made without an observer.” Heinz von Foerster was a physicists and philosopher and one of the pioneers of cybernetics.
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<i>But finally, a word of caution. Although these last quotes come from very sober and keen thinkers, they still could be wrong. In fact, everything I have been saying could be wrong. But if we all really are in charge of our own universe, made of pure information, it is essential for us to look for wisdom and truth within ourselves. Perhaps looking for reality outside of the mind is the wrong way to go. Thank you.
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Index under construction (mostly just people for now):<br />
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Evolution:
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<ul>
<li>I don't really recall when this all started. Ever since I was 15 I wanted to study physics. After graduating in 1999, I had more questions than answers relating to reality and consciousness.</li>
<li>In 2001: "On the Structure of the Vacuum and the Dynamics of Scalar Fields" (<a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/wfb/j-node%20archive/research/paper.pdf">here</a>) looking at some of the limits of modern physics.</li>
<li>My first job (which would last for 12 years, where I was developing trading model algorithms for the FX market at Olsen Ltd) was an intuitive transition from fundamental physics to complex systems. "A New Kind of Science" by S. Wolfram.</li>
<li>In 2005 I was looking for a new challenge in addition to my work and googled the <a href="https://www.sg.ethz.ch/">Chair of Systems Design</a> by chance.</li>
<li>Applied for a PhD there (50% next to my finance job) and had to give a talk that summer where I started to think about the analytical/algorithmic and fundamental/complex paradigms; "Alternate Realities: Mathematical Models of Nature and Man" by J. Casti: science as the art of encoding reality domains into abstract representations.</li>
<li>In the summer of 2006 I read "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" by R. Pirsig in a hammock on one of the Andaman islands after visiting Delhi and Varanasi for our charity <a href="http://noon.ch/">noon.ch</a>.</li>
<li>I consolidated a lot of stuff between 2006 and 2009. These <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2013/11/old-posts-from-blogsolsench.html">blog posts</a> at Olsen Ltd and stuff on my old webpage: <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/index.php?id=117">1</a>, <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/index.php?id=130">2</a>, <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/index.php?id=147">3</a>, <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/index.php?id=160">4</a>.</li>
<li>It all got more serious when I took a course on the philosophy of science during my <a href="https://www1.ethz.ch/sg/people/formercoll/jglattfelder">PhD</a> in 2008: G. Brun and D. Kuenzle, ETH Zurich.</li>
<li>All of this now fuelled the contents of Appendix A of my <a href="https://www.sg.ethz.ch/media/medialibrary/2013/12/james_glatteth-2007-02.pdf">dissertation</a> (2010, PDF) which got updated and published in Springer's <a href="http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783642334238">Theses series</a> (2013): Laws of nature; paradigms of fundamental processes and complex systems; epistemological and ontological challenges; postmodernism, constructivism, and relativism.</li>
<li>Which then prompted these blog posts about certainty, reality, and perception: <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2011/09/der-homo-ideologicus-und-die.html">1</a>, <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2012/08/on-certainty.html">2</a>, <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2012/10/the-dreamers-dream.html">3</a>, (2011 - 2012).</li>
<li>Sometime: "Programming the Universe: A Quantum Computer Scientist Takes on the Cosmos" S. Lloyd.</li>
<li>2011: "The Passion of the Western Mind: Understanding the Ideas That Have Shaped Our World View" R. Tarnas, "Incognito: The Secret Lives of the Brain" D. Eagleman.</li>
<li>Ideas which also flowed into this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XKAe4ypn_k">Ignite</a> talk in 2011 (or as <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2011/12/fabricating-reality.html">blog post</a>), which represents a rough sketch of the current talk. </li>
<li>2012: "The Ego Tunnel: The Science of the Mind and the Myth of the Self" T. Metzinger.</li>
<li>Not sure when the ideas of consciousness entered the picture, but happy to see such crazy ideas also being espoused by <a href="https://www.ted.com/talks/donald_hoffman_do_we_see_reality_as_it_is?language=en">scientists</a> and <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/david_chalmers_how_do_you_explain_consciousness?language=en">philosophers</a> today.</li>
<li>In 2013 I started negotiating with Springer and started writing... </li>
<li>2016: Contributed a chapter called "What is Reality?" to Lucy and Stephen Hawking's children's book <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/George-Blue-Georges-Secret-Universe-x/dp/0857533274">"George and the Blue Moon"</a>. <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2016/12/what-is-real.html">See more.</a></li>
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jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-50234612844294949482014-02-01T13:37:00.000+01:002017-02-15T22:51:07.260+01:00snow, wind, and avalanches<span id="mood">I <3 pow</span><br />
Freeriding is arguably the most fun thing to do on a snowboard. But as the proverb has it: no risk, no fun. There is always a looming threat due to avalanches. Although, judging the risk of avalanche danger is today based on a lot of scientific knowledge, allowing for proper assessments resulting in decision strategies (see, for instance, Werner Munter), there is always a residual risk. Avalanches are very complex phenomena, depending on a web of factors, like temperature, slope orientation and steepness, terrain, vegetation, snowpack, ...<br />
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A very difficult variable to deal with is wind. Heavy winds during snow fall can pack incredible amounts of snow at very specific exposures. And windy conditions after the last snow fall can result in very local hot spots. Often only experience can help here.<br />
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Recently, we had to deal with this. In order to reach the side of the mountain we planned on descending, there was some windpacked powder to deal with. Between the three of us, we triggered four avalanches. Luckily they were all small and superficial - but you never know. Interestingly, the final couloirs greeted us with epic pow, very different in quality to the other slopes...
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<embed flashvars="host=picasaweb.google.com&hl=en_US&feat=flashalbum&RGB=0x000000&feed=https%3A%2F%2Fpicasaweb.google.com%2Fdata%2Ffeed%2Fapi%2Fuser%2F110063666713170356389%2Falbumid%2F5975406605923458353%3Falt%3Drss%26kind%3Dphoto%26authkey%3DGv1sRgCPTRqpDW8uKIzgE%26hl%3Den_US" height="267" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" src="https://static.googleusercontent.com/external_content/picasaweb.googleusercontent.com/slideshow.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="400"></embed>
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Perhaps the greatest safety accomplishment in the last years has been the introduction of avalanche airbags. A simple idea based on increasing the volume associated with the freerider. In an avalanche, understood as granular media moving under the influence of gravity, larger particles tend to travel to the surface. This is vital for survival, as being rescued before about 20 minutes results in a very good survival rate, which drops significantly after that.
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/7geEnNChTGk" width="420"></iframe>
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One last thing. If you are "lucky" enough to be close to the tear where the avalanche rips away from the slope, you have a few seconds left to do the right thing. Next to deploying the airbag you can actually try and ride out of the avalanche. When the snow silently crumbles around you, it's like surfing! Your board actually carries you and if you are not distracted by the dynamics of everything around you moving, you can focus on a sideways exit. This happened to me here:
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/e7Qtpkopufs" width="420"></iframe>
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Not sure how easy this is on skis though, as you can see <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NwXRvOazD0&list=PL77D97ABB57D9264F&feature=share&index=150">here</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVO52Cks-z0&list=PL77D97ABB57D9264F&feature=share&index=151">here</a> and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tbuk9AyEap8&list=PL77D97ABB57D9264F&index=150">here</a> (note the effect of the airbag - the last guy didn't have one; those must have been long 5 1/2 minutes).<br />
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Watch the pros struggling: <a href="http://vimeo.com/71516667">1</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uL7TvdCe8w&list=PL77D97ABB57D9264F&index=180">2</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C_P2Nd0xwY&list=PL77D97ABB57D9264F&index=149">3</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=me-dfav5wtI&list=PL77D97ABB57D9264F&index=163">4</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNvlIlw2_RQ">5</a>. And try not to do
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOvBVmQrexM">this</a>, after you decide to gun it.
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And then there's these guys: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yq02-TxO8Wg&t=2m59s">1</a>, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yq02-TxO8Wg&t=1m30s">2</a>.
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Please, don't be one of those people who turn up with no safety equipment or say stuff like, "but I've never seen an avalanche come down on this slope" or "hey, there were already some tracks, no big deal"!<br />
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And finally, why bother? Why expose yourself to unnecessary risk?
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Because it is so much fun, that's why:)
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="236" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/7fBLyh15eoY" width="420"></iframe>
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Safe and awesome freeriding!<br />
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Edit: So, they took down the last video due to a copyright claim.<br />
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This is the video, with some random audio:<br />
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And this was the audio track:<br />
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Sigh...<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="236" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MasvoDXQe3U" width="420"></iframe>jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-53905643933562831062013-11-06T09:28:00.000+01:002013-11-08T19:13:18.534+01:00old posts from blogs.olsen.ch<span id="mood">Archiving</span><br />
This is a collection of old blog posts, going back to 2006. For some strange reason I thought it would be a good idea to have two blogs. They have been migrated here from blogs.olsen.ch.
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<h2 style="background-color: #d5d6d7; color: #333333; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6em; line-height: 19.1875px; margin: 30px 0px 0px; text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2009/02/14/a-philosophy-of-science-primer-part-iii/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: a philosophy of science primer - part III">a philosophy of science primer - part III</a></h2>
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See</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2009/02/12/a-philosophy-of-science-primer-part-i/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">part I</a>: some history of science and logical empiricism,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2009/02/13/a-philosophy-of-science-primer-part-i-2/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">part II</a>: problems of logical empiricism, critical rationalism and its problems.</li>
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After the unsuccessful attempts to found science on common sense notions as seen in the programs of logical empiricism and critical rationalism, people looked for new ideas and explanations.</div>
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The Kuhnian View</h4>
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Thomas Kuhn’s enormously influential work on the history of science is called the <i>Structure of Scientific Revolutions</i>. He revised the idea that science is an incremental process accumulating more and more knowledge. Instead, he identified the following phases in the evolution of science:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">prehistory: many schools of thought coexist and controversies are abundant,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">history proper: one group of scientists establishes a new solution to an existing problem which opens the doors to further inquiry; a so called paradigm emerges,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">paradigm based science: unity in the scientific community on what the fundamental questions and central methods are; generally a problem solving process within the boundaries of unchallenged rules (analogy to solving a Sudoku),</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">crisis: more and more anomalies and boundaries appear; questioning of established rules,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">revolution: a new theory and weltbild takes over solving the anomalies and a new paradigm is born.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Another central concept is incommensurability, meaning that proponents of different paradigms cannot understand the other’s point of view because they have diverging ideas and views of the world. In other words, every rule is part of a paradigm and there exist no trans-paradigmatic rules.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
This implies that such revolutions are not rational processes governed by insights and reason. In the words of Max Planck (the founder of quantum mechanics; from his autobiography):</div>
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A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.</div>
</blockquote>
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Kuhn gives additional blows to a commonsensical foundation of science with the help of Norwood Hanson and Willard Van Orman Quine:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">every human observation of reality contains an a priori theoretical framework,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">underdetermination of belief by evidence: any evidence collected for a specific claim is logically consistent with the falsity of the claim,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">every experiment is based on auxiliary hypotheses (initial conditions, proper functioning of apparatus, experimental setup,…).</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
People slowly started to realize that there are serious consequences in Kuhn’s ideas and the problems faced by the logical empiricists and critical rationalists in establishing a sound logical and empirical foundation of science:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b>postmodernism</b>,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b>constructivism or the scoiology of science</b>,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b>relativism</b>.</li>
</ul>
<div align="center">
<img alt="x" src="http://j-node.homeip.net/fileadmin/design/x.jpg" /></div>
<h4>
Postmodernism</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Modernism describes the development of Western industrialized society since the beginning of the 19th Century. A central idea was that there exist objective true beliefs and that progression is always linear.</div>
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Postmodernism replaces these notions with the belief that many different opinions and forms can coexist and all find acceptance. Core ideas are diversity, differences and intermingling. In the 1970s it is seen to enter scientific and cultural thinking.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Postmodernism has taken a bad rap from scientists after the so called Sokal affair, where physicist Alan Sokal got a nonsensical paper published in the journal of postmodern cultural studies, by flattering the editors ideology with nonsense that sounds good.</div>
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Postmodernims has been associated with scepticism and solipsism, next to relativism and constructivism.</div>
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Notable scientists identifiable as postmodernists are Thomas Kuhn, David Bohm and many figures in the 20th century philosophy of mathematics. As well as Paul Feyerabend, an influential philosopher of science.</div>
<h4>
Constructivism</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
To quote the Nobel laureate Steven Weinberg on Kuhnian revolutions:</div>
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If the transition from one paradigm to another cannot be judged by any external standard, then perhaps it is culture rather than nature that dictates the content of scientific theories.</div>
</blockquote>
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Constructivism excludes objectivism and rationality by postulating that beliefs are always subject to a person’s cultural and theological embedding and inherent idiosyncrasies. It also goes under the label of the sociology of science.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
In the words of Paul Boghossian (in his book <i>Fear of Knowledge: Against Relativism and Constructivism</i>):</div>
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Constructivism about rational explanation: it is never possible to explain why we believe what we believe solely on the basis of our exposure to the relevant evidence; our contingent needs and interests must also be invoked.</div>
</blockquote>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
The proponents of constructivism go further:</div>
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[…] all beliefs are on a par with one another with respect to the causes of their credibility. It is not that all beliefs are equally true or equally false, but that regardless of truth and falsity the fact of their credibility is to be seen as equally problematic.</div>
</blockquote>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
From Barry Barnes’ and David Bloor’s <i>Relativism, Rationalism and the Sociology of Knowledge</i>.</div>
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In its radical version, constructivism fully abandons objectivism:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Objectivity is the illusion that observations are made without an observer</i>(from the physicist Heinz von Foerster; my translation)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Modern physics has conquered domains that display an ontology that cannot be coherently captured or understood by human reasoning</i> (from the philosopher Ernst von Glasersfeld); my translation</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
In addition, radical constructivism proposes that perception never yields an image of reality but is always a construction of sensory input and the memory capacity of an individual. An analogy would be the submarine captain who has to rely on instruments to indirectly gain knowledge from the outside world. Radical constructivists are motivated by modern insights gained by neurobiology.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Historically, Immanuel Kant can be understood as the founder of constructivism. On a side note, the bishop George Berkeley went even as far as to deny the existence of an external material reality altogether. Only ideas and thought are real.</div>
<h4>
Relativism</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Another consequence of the foundations of science lacking commonsensical elements and the ideas of constructivism can be seen in the notion of relativism. If rationality is a function of our contingent and pragmatic reasons, then it can be rational for a group A to believe P, while at the same time it is rational for group B to believe in negation of P.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Although, as a philosophical idea, relativism goes back to the Greek Protagoras, its implications are unsettling for the Western mid:<i>anything goes</i> (as Paul Feyerabend characterizes his idea of scientific anarchy). If there is no objective truth, no absolute values, nothing universal, then a great many of humanity’s century old concepts and beliefs are in danger.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
It should however also be mentioned, that relativism is prevalent in Eastern thought systems, and as an example found in many Indian religions. In a similar vein, pantheism and holism are notions which are much more compatible with Eastern thought systems than Western ones.</div>
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Furthermore, John Stuart Mill’s arguments for liberalism appear to also work well as arguments for relativism:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">fallibility of people’s opinions,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">opinions that are thought to be wrong can contain partial truths,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">accepted views, if not challenged, can lead to dogmas,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the significance and meaning of accepted opinions can be lost in time.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
From his book <i>On Liberty</i>.</div>
<h4>
Epilogue</h4>
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But could relativism be possibly true? Consider the following hints:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Epistemological<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">problems with perception: synaesthesia, altered states of consciousness (spontaneous, mystical experiences and drug induced),</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">psychopathology describes a frightening amount of defects in the perception of reality and ones self,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">people suffering from psychosis or schizophrenia can experience a radically different reality,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_will#Neuroscience" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">free will and neuroscience</a>,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-4flnuxNV4&feature=PlayList&p=8BB7EC8999A88570&index=52" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">synthetic happiness</a>,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">cognitive biases.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Ontological<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">nonlocal foundation of quantum reality: entanglement, delayed choice experiment,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">illogical foundation of reality: wave-particle duality, superpositions, uncertainty, intrinsic probabilistic nature, time dilation (special relativity), observer/measurment problem in quantum theory,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">discreteness of reality: quanta of energy and matter, constant speed of light,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">nature of time: not present in fundamental theories of quantum gravity, symmetrical,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">arrow of time: why was the initial state of the universe very low in entropy?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">emergence, selforganization and structureformation.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
In essence, perception doesn’t necessarily say much about the world around us. Consciousness can fabricate reality. This makes it hard to be rational. Reality is a really bizarre place. Objectivity doesn’t seem to play a big role.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
And what about the human mind? Is this at least a paradox free realm? Unfortunately not. Even what appears as a consistent and logical formal thought system, i.e., mathematics, can be plagued by fundamental problems. Kurt Gödel proved that in every consistent non-contradictory system of mathematical axioms (leading to elementary arithmetic of whole numbers), there exist statements which cannot be proven or disproved in the system. So logical axiomatic systems are incomplete.</div>
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As an example Bertrand Russell encountered the following paradox: let R be the set of all sets that do not contain themselves as members. Is R an element of itself or not?</div>
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If you really accede to the idea that reality and the perception of reality by the human mind are very problematic concepts, then the next puzzles are:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">why has science been so fantastically successful at describing reality?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">why is science producing amazing technology at breakneck speed?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">why is our macroscopic, classical level of reality so well behaved and appears so normal although it is based on quantum weirdness?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">are all beliefs justified given the believers biography and brain chemistry?</li>
</ul>
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<br /></div>
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<h2 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6em; line-height: 19.1875px; margin: 30px 0px 0px; text-indent: 0px;">
<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2009/02/13/a-philosophy-of-science-primer-part-i-2/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: a philosophy of science primer - part II">a philosophy of science primer - part II</a></h2>
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Continued from <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2009/02/12/a-philosophy-of-science-primer-part-i/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">part I</a>…</div>
<h4>
The Problems With Logical Empiricism</h4>
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The programme proposed by the logical empiricists, namely that science is built of logical statements resting on an empirical foundation, faces central difficulties. To summarize:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">it turns out that it is not possible to construct pure formal concepts that solely reflect empirical facts without anticipating a theoretical framework,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">how does one link theoretical concepts (electrons, utility functions in economics, inflational cosmology, Higgs bosons,…) to experiential notions?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">how to distinguish science from pseudo-science?</li>
</ul>
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Now this may appear a little technical and not very interesting or fundamental to people outside the field of the philosophy of science, but it gets worse:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b>inductive reasoning</b> is invalid from a formal logical point of view!</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b>causality</b> defies standard logic!</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-147" style="color: #0066cc;"></a><br />
This is big news. So, just because I have witnessed the sun going up everyday of my life (single observations), I cannot say it will go up tomorrow (general law). Observation alone does not suffice, you need a theory. But the whole idea here is that the theory should come from observation. This leads to the dead end of circular reasoning.</div>
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But surely causality is undisputable? Well, apart from the problems coming from logic itself, there are extreme examples to be found in modern physics which undermine the common sense notion of a causal reality: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonlocality" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">quantum nonlocality</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheeler%27s_delayed_choice_experiment" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">delayed choice experiment</a>.</div>
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But challenges often inspire people, so the story continues…</div>
<h4>
Critical Rationalism</h4>
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OK, so the logical empiricists faced problems. Can’t these be fixed? The critical rationalists belied so. A crucial influence came from René Descartes’ and Gottfried Leibniz’ rationalism: knowledge can have aspects that do not stem from experience, i.e., there is an immanent reality to the mind.</div>
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The term <i>critical</i> refers to the fact, that insights gained by pure thought cannot be strictly justified but only critically tested with experience. Ultimate justifications lead to the so called <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%BCnchhausen_Trilemma" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">Münchhausen trilemma</a>, i.e., one of the following:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">an infinite regress of justifications,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">circular reasoning,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">dogmatic termination of reasoning.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
The most influential proponent of critical rationalism was Karl Popper. His central claims were in essence</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">use <b>deductive</b> reasoning instead of induction,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">theories can never be verified, only <b>falsified</b>.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Although there are similarities with logical empiricism (empirical basis, science is a set of theoretical constructs), the idea is that theories are simply invented by the mind and are temporarily accepted until they can be falsified. The progression of science is hence seen as evolutionary process rather than a linear accumulation of knowledge.</div>
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Sounds good, so what went wrong with this ansatz?</div>
<h4>
The Problems With Critical Rationalism</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
In a nutshell:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">basic formal concepts cannot be derived from experience without induction; how can they be shown to be true?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b>deduction</b> turns out to be just as tricky as induction,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">what parts of a theory need to be discarded once it is falsified?</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
To see where deduction breaks down, a nice story by Lewis Carroll (the mathematician who wrote the Alice in Wonderland stories): <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/What_the_Tortoise_Said_to_Achilles" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">What the tortoise Said to Achilles</a>.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
If deduction goes down the drain as well, not much is left to ground science on notions of logic, rationality and objectivity. Which is rather unexpected of an enterprise that in itself works amazingly well employing just these concepts.</div>
<h4>
Explanations in Science</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
And it gets worse. Inquiries into the nature of scientific explanation reveal further problems. It is based on Carl Hempel’s and Paul Oppenheim’s formalisation of scientific inquiry in natural language. Two basic schemes are identified: deductive-nomological and inductive-statistical explanations. The idea is to show that what is being explained (the explanandum) is to be expected on the grounds of these two types of explanations.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
The first tries to explain things deductively in terms of regularities and exact laws (nomological). The second uses statistical hypotheses and explains individual observations inductively. Albeit very formal, this inquiry into scientific inquiry is very straightforward and commonsensical.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Again, the programme fails:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">can’t explain singular causal events,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">asymmetric (a change in the air pressure explains the readings on a barometer, however, the barometer doesn’t explain why the air pressure changed),</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">many explanations are irrelevant,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">as seen before, inductive and deductive logic is controversial,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">how to employ probability theory in the explanation?</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
So what next? What are the consequences of these unexpected and spectacular failings of the most simplest premises one would wish science to be grounded on (logic, empiricism, causality, common sense, rationality, …)?</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
The discussion is ongoing and isn’t expected to be resolved soon. See<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2009/02/14/a-philosophy-of-science-primer-part-iii/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">part III</a>…</div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2009/02/12/a-philosophy-of-science-primer-part-i/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: a philosophy of science primer - part I">a philosophy of science primer - part I</a></h2>
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Naively one would expect science to adhere to two basic notions:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">common sense, i.e., rationalism,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">observation and experiments, i.e., empiricism.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Interestingly, both concepts turn out to be very problematic if applied to the question of what knowledge is and how it is acquired. In essence, they cannot be seen as a foundation for science.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
But first a little history of science…</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<img alt="Aristotle" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ae/Aristotle_Altemps_Inv8575.jpg" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-146" style="color: #0066cc;"></a></div>
<h4>
Classical Antiquity</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
The Greek philosopher Aristotle was one of the first thinkers to introduce logic as a means of reasoning. His empirical method was driven by gaining general insights from isolated observations. He had a huge influence on the thinking within the Islamic and Jewish traditions next to shaping Western philosophy and inspiring thinking in the physical sciences.</div>
<h4>
Modern Era</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Nearly two thousand years later, not much changed. Francis Bacon (the philosopher, not the painter) made modifications to Aristotle’s ideas, introducing the so called scientific method where inductive reasoning plays an important role. He paves the way for a modern understanding of scientific inquiry.</div>
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Approximately at the same time, Robert Boyle was instrumental in establishing experiments as the cornerstone of physical sciences.</div>
<h4>
Logical Empiricism</h4>
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So far so good. By the early 20th Century the notion that science is based on experience (empiricism) and logic, and where knowledge is intersubjectively testable, has had a long history.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
The philosophical school of logical empiricism (or logical positivism) tries to formalise these ideas. Notable proponents were Ernst Mach, Ludwig Wittgenstein, Bertrand Russell, Rudolf Carnap, Hans Reichenbach, Otto Neurath. Some main influences were:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">David Hume’s and John Locke’s empiricism: all knowledge originates from observation, nothing can exist in the mind which wasn’t before in the senses,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Auguste Comte’ and John Stuart Mills’ positivism: there exists no knowledge outside of science.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
In this paradigm (see Thomas Kuhn a little later) science is viewed as a building comprised of logical terms based on an empirical foundation. A theory is understood as having the following structure: <b>observation -> empirical concepts -> formal notions -> abstract law</b>. Basically a sequence of ever higher abstraction.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
This notion of unveiling laws of nature by starting with individual observations is called <b>induction</b> (the other way round, starting with abstract laws and ending with a tangible factual description is called deduction, see further along).</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
And here the problems start to emerge. See <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2009/02/13/a-philosophy-of-science-primer-part-i-2/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">part II</a>…</div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<h2 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6em; margin: 30px 0px 0px;">
<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/09/03/stochastic-processes-and-the-history-of-science-from-planck-to-einstein/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: Stochastic Processes and the History of Science: From Planck to Einstein">Stochastic Processes and the History of Science: From Planck to Einstein</a></h2>
<div class="entry" style="line-height: 1.4em;">
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How are the notions of randomness, i.e., stochastic processes, linked to theories in physics and what have they got to do with options pricing in economics?</div>
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How did the prevailing world view change from 1900 to 1905?</div>
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What connects the mathematicians Bachelier, Markov, Kolmogorov, Ito to the physicists Langevin, Fokker, Planck, Einstein and the economists Black, Scholes, Merton?<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-144" style="color: #0066cc;"></a></div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
The Setting</h3>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Science up to 1900 was in essence the study of solutions of differential equations (Newton’s heritage);</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Was very successful, e.g., Maxwell’s equations: four differential equations describing <b>everything</b> about (classical) electromagnetism;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Prevailing world view:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Deterministic universe;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Initial conditions plus the solution of differential equation yield certain prediction of the future.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
Three Pillars</h3>
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By the end of the 20th Century, it became clear that there are (at least?) two additional aspects needed in a completer understanding of reality:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Inherent randomness: statistical evaluations of sets of outcomes of single observations/experiments;<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Quantum mechanics (Planck 1900; Einstein 1905) contains a fundamental element of randomness;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">In chaos theory (e.g., Mandelbrot 1963) non-linear dynamics leads to a sensitivity to initial conditions which renders even simple differential equations essentially unpredictable;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Complex systems (e.g., Wolfram 1983), i.e., self-organization and emergent behavior, best understood as outcomes of simple rules.</li>
</ul>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
Stochastic Processes</h3>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Systems which evolve probabilistically in time;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Described by a time-dependent random variable;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The probability density function describes the distribution of the measurements at time t;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Prototype: The Markov process.</li>
</ul>
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For a Markov process, only the present state of the system influences its future evolution: there is no long-term memory. Examples:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Wiener process or Einstein-Wiener process or Brownian motion:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Introduced by Bachelier in 1900;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Continuous (in t and the sample path)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Increments are independent and drawn from a Gaussian normal distribution;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Random walk:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Discrete steps (jumps), continuous in t;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Is a Wiener process in the limit of the step size going to zero.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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To summarize, there are three possible characteristics:</div>
<ol style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 35px;">
<li style="list-style: decimal outside; margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px; padding: 0px;">Jumps (in sample path);</li>
<li style="list-style: decimal outside; margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px; padding: 0px;">Drift (of the probability density function);</li>
<li style="list-style: decimal outside; margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px; padding: 0px;">Diffusion (widening of the probability density function).</li>
</ol>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Probability distribution function showing drift and diffusion:<br />
<img alt="Probability distribution function with drift and diffusion" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f2/FokkerPlanck.gif" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /></div>
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But how to deal with stochastic processes?</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
The Micro View</h3>
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Einstein:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Presented a theory of Brownian motion in 1905;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">New paradigm: stochastic modeling of natural phenomena; statistics as intrinsic part of the time evolution of system;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Mean-square displacement of Brownian particle proportional to time;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Equation for the Brownian particle similar to a diffusion (differential) equation.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Langevin:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Presented a new derivation of Einstein’s results in 1908;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">First stochastic differential equation, i.e., a differential equation of a “rapidly and irregularly fluctuating random force” (today called a random variable)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Solutions of differential equation are random functions.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
However, no formal mathematical grounding until 1942, when Ito developed stochastic calculus:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Langevin’s equations interpreted as Ito stochastic differential equations using Ito integrals;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Ito integral defined to deal with non-differentiable sample paths of random functions;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Ito lemma (generalized integration rule) used to solve stochastic differential equations.</li>
</ul>
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Note:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The Markov process is a solution to a simple stochastic differential equation;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The celebrated Black-Scholes option pricing formula is a stochastic differential equation employing Brownian motion.</li>
</ul>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
The Fokker-Planck Equation: Moving To The Macro View</h3>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The Langevin equation describes the evolution of the position of a single “stochastic particle”;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The Fokker-Planck equation describes the behavior of a large population of of “stochastic particles”;<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Formally: The Fokker-Planck equation gives the time evolution of the probability density function of the system as a function of time;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Results can be derived more directly using the Fokker-Planck equation than using the corresponding stochastic differential equation;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The theory of Markov processes can be developed from this macro point of view.</li>
</ul>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
The Historical Context</h3>
<h4>
Bachelier</h4>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Developed a theory of Brownian motion (Einstein-Wiener process) in 1900 (five years before Einstein, and long before Wiener);</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Was the first person to use a stochastic process to model financial systems;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Essentially his contribution was forgotten until the late 1950s;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Black, Scholes and Merton’s publication in 1973 finally gave Brownian motion the break-through in finance.</li>
</ul>
<h4>
Planck</h4>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Founder of quantum theory;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">1900 theory of black-body radiation;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Central assumption: electromagnetic energy is quantized, E = h v;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">In 1914 Fokker derives an equation on Brownian motion which Planck proves;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Applies the Fokker-Planck equation as quantum mechanical equation, which turns out to be wrong;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">In 1931 Kolmogorov presented two fundamental equations on Markov processes;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">It was later realized, that one of them was actually equivalent to the Fokker-Planck equation.</li>
</ul>
<h4>
Einstein</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
1905 “Annus Mirabilis” publications. Fundamental paradigm shifts in the understanding of reality:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Photoelectric effect:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Explained by giving Planck’s (theoretical) notion of <b>energy quanta</b> a physical reality (photons),</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Further establishing quantum theory,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Winning him the Nobel Prize;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Brownian motion:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">First <b>stochastic modeling</b> of natural phenomena,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The experimental verification of the theory established the existence of atoms, which had been heavily debate at the time,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Einstein’s most frequently cited paper, in the fields of biology, chemistry, earth and environmental sciences, life sciences, engineering;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Special theory of relativity: the <b>relative speeds</b> of the observers’<b>reference frames</b> determines the passage of time;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Equivalence of <b>energy and mass</b> (follows from special relativity): E = m c^2.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Einstein was working at the Patent Office in Bern at the time and submitted his Ph.D. to the University of Zurich in July 1905.</div>
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Later Work:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">1915: general theory of relativity, explaining gravity in terms of the geometry (curvature) of space-time;<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Planck also made contributions to general relativity;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Although having helped in founding quantum mechanics, he fundamentally opposed its probabilistic implications: “God does not throw dice”;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Dreams of a unified field theory:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Spend his last 30 years or so trying to (unsuccessfully) extend the general theory of relativity to unite it with electromagnetism;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Kaluza and Klein elegantly managed to do this in 1921 by developing general relativity in five space-time dimensions;</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Today there is still no empirically validated theory able to explain gravity and the (quantum) Standard Model of particle physics, despite intense theoretical research (string/M-theory, loop quantum gravity);</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">In fact, one of the main goals of the LHC at CERN (officially operational on the 21st of October 2008) is to find hints of such a unified theory (supersymmetric particles, higher dimensions of space).</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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<h2 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6em; margin: 30px 0px 0px;">
<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/07/01/laws-of-nature/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: laws of nature">laws of nature</a></h2>
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<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
What are Laws of Nature?</h3>
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Regularities/structures in a highly complex universe</div>
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<ul li="" style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">Allow for predictions
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Dependent on only a small set of conditions (i.e., independent of very many conditions which could possibly have an effect)</li>
</ul>
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<br />
…but why are there laws of nature and how can these laws be discovered and understood by the human mind?<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-141" style="color: #0066cc;"></a></div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
No One Knows!</h3>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">G.W. von Leibniz in 1714 (Principes de la nature et de la grâce):<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Why is there something rather than nothing? For nothingness is simpler and easier than anything</i></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">E. Wigner, “<a href="http://www.dartmouth.edu/~matc/MathDrama/reading/Wigner.html" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences</a>“, 1960:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>[…] the enormous usefulness of mathematics in the natural sciences is something bordering on the mysterious and […] there is no rational explanation for it</i></li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>[…] it is not at all natural that “laws of nature” exist, much less that man is able to discover them</i></li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>[…] the two miracles of the existence of laws of nature and of the human mind’s capacity to divine them</i></li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>[…] fundamentally, we do not know why our theories work so well</i></li>
</ul>
</li>
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<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
In a Nutshell</h3>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">We happen to live in a structured, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self_organizing" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">self-organizing</a>, and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuned_universe" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">fine-tuned universe</a> that allows the emergence of sentient beings (anthropic principle)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The human mind is capable of devising formal thought systems (mathematics)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Mathematical models are able to capture and represent the workings of the universe</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
See also this post: <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/04/17/in-a-nutshell/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">in a nutshell</a>.</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
The Fundamental Level of Reality: Physics</h3>
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Mathematical models of reality are independent of their formal representation: invariance and symmetry</div>
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<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Classical mechanics: invariance of the equations under transformations (e.g., time => conservation of energy)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Gravitation (general relativity): geometry and the independence of the coordinate system (covariance)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The other three forces of nature (unified in quantum field theory): mathematics of symmetry and special kind of invariance</li>
</ul>
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See also these posts: <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">funadamental</a>, <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/04/02/invariant-thinking/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">invariant thinking</a>.</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
Towards Complexity</h3>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Physics was extremely successful in describing the inanimate world the in the last 300 years or so</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">But what about complex systems comprised of many interacting entities, e.g., the life and social sciences?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>The rest is chemistry</i>; <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/03/13/quotes/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">C. D. Anderson in 1932</a>; echoing the success of a reductionist approach to understanding the workings of nature after having discovered the positron</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>At each stage [of complexity] entirely new laws, concepts, and generalizations are necessary […]. Psychology is not applied biology, nor is biology applied chemistry</i>; <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/03/13/quotes/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">P. W. Anderson in 1972</a>; pointing out that the knowledge about the constituents of a system doesn’t reveal any insights into how the system will behave as a whole; so it is not at all clear how you get from quarks and leptons via DNA to a human brain…</li>
</ul>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
Complex Systems: Simplicity</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>The Limits of Physics</i></div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Closed-form solutions to analytical expressions are mostly only attainable if non-linear effects (e.g., friction) are ignored</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Not too many interacting entities can be considered (e.g., <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_body_problem" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">three body problem</a>)</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>The Complexity of Simple Rules</i></div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Rule110.html" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">S. Wolfram’s cellular automaton rule 110</a>: neither completely random nor completely repetitive</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>[The] results [simple rules give rise to complex behavior] where were so surprising and dramatic that as I gradually came to understand them, they forced me to change my whole view of science […]</i>; S. Wolfram reminiscing on his early work on cellular automaton in the 80s (”New Kind of Science”, pg. 19)</li>
</ul>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
Complex Systems: The Paradigm Shift</h3>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The interaction of entities (agents) in a system according to simple rules gives rise to complex behavior</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The shift from mathematical (analytical) models to algorithmic computations and simulations performed in computers (only this bottom-up approach to simulating complex systems has been fruitful, all top-down efforts have failed: try programming <a href="http://www.swarm.org/index.php/Main_Page" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">swarming behavior</a>, <a href="http://www.javatroll.com/Ants/afs.html" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">ant foraging</a>, <a href="http://www.soms.ethz.ch/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">pedestrian/traffic dynamics</a>,… not using simple local interaction rules but with a centralized, hierarchical setup!)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Understanding the complex system as a network of interactions (graph theory), where the complexity (or structure) of the individual nodes can be ignored</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Challenge: how does the macro behavior emerge from the interaction of the system elements on the micro level?</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
See also these posts: <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/complex/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">complex</a>, <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/07/28/swarm-theory/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">swarm theory</a>, <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/12/19/complex-networks/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">complex networks</a>.</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
Laws of Nature Revisited</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<br /></div>
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<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
So are there laws of nature to be found in the life and social sciences?</div>
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<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Yes: scaling (or power) laws</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Complex, collective phenomena give rise to power laws […] independent of the microscopic details of the phenomenon. These power laws emerge from collective action and transcend individual specificities. As such, they are unforgeable signatures of a collective mechanism</i>; J.P. Bouchaud in “<a href="http://www.cfm.fr/papers/0008103.pdf" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">Power-laws in Economy and Finance: Some Ideas from Physics</a>“, 2001</li>
</ul>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
Scaling Laws</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Scaling-law relations characterize an immense number of natural patterns (from physics, biology, earth and planetary sciences, economics and finance, computer science and demography to the social sciences) prominently in the form of</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">scaling-law distributions</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">scale-free networks</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">cumulative relations of stochastic processes</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
A scaling law, or power law, is a simple polynomial functional relationship</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
f(x) = a x^k <=> Y = (X/C)^E</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Scaling laws</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">lack a preferred scale, reflecting their (self-similar) fractal nature</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">are usually valid across an enormous dynamic range (sometimes many orders of magnitude)</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
See also these posts: <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/09/10/scaling-laws/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">scaling laws</a>, <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/07/24/benfords-law/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">benford’s law</a>.</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
Scaling Laws In FX</h3>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Event counts related to price thresholds</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Price moves related to time thresholds</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Price moves related to price thresholds</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Waiting times related to price thresholds</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<img alt="FX scaling law" src="http://j-node.homeip.net/fileadmin/uploads/blog/sl1.png" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /></div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/fileadmin/uploads/blog/sl-all.gif" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><img height="423" src="http://j-node.homeip.net/fileadmin/uploads/blog/sl-all.gif" style="border: none; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" width="600" /></a><br />
(Figs. by <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/about/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">jbg</a> under the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/deed.en" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial2.5 License</a>)</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
Scaling Laws In Biology</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
So-called allometric laws describe the relationship between two attributes of living organisms as scaling laws:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The metabolic rate B of a species is proportional to its mass M: B ~ M^(3/4)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Heartbeat (or breathing) rate T of a species is proportional to its mass: T ~ M^(-1/4)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Lifespan L of a species is proportional to its mass: L ~ M^(1/4)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Invariants: all species have the same number of heart beats in their lifespan (roughly one billion)</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<img alt="allometric law" src="http://j-node.homeip.net/fileadmin/uploads/blog/alometric.png" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /><br />
(Fig. G. West)</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
G. West (et. al) <a href="http://www.santafe.edu/research/topics-physics-complex-systems.php#4" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">proposes an explanation of the 1/4 scaling exponent</a>, which follow from underlying principles embedded in the dynamical and geometrical structure of space-filling, fractal-like, hierarchical branching networks, presumed optimized by natural selection: organisms effectively function in four spatial dimensions even though they physically exist in three.</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
Conclusion</h3>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The natural world possesses structure-forming and self-organizing mechanisms leading to consciousness capable of devising formal thought systems which mirror the workings of the natural world</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">There are two regimes in the natural world: basic fundamental processes and complex systems comprised of interacting agents</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">There are two paradigms: analytical vs. algorithmic (computational)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">There are ‘miracles’ at work:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the existence of a universe following laws leading to stable emergent features</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the capability of the human mind to devise formal thought systems</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the overlap of mathematics and the workings of nature</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the fact that complexity emerges from simple rules</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">There are basic laws of nature to be found in complex systems, e.g., scaling laws</li>
</ul>
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<h2 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6em; line-height: 19.1875px; margin: 30px 0px 0px;">
<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/05/17/animal-intelligence/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: animal intelligence">animal intelligence</a></h2>
<div class="entry" style="line-height: 1.4em;">
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>This is the larger lesson of animal cognition research: It humbles us.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>We are not alone in our ability to invent or plan or to contemplate ourselves—or even to plot and lie.</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>Many scientists believed animals were incapable of any thought. They were simply machines, robots programmed to react to stimuli but lacking the ability to think or feel.</i><br />
<i><br />We’re glimpsing intelligence throughout the animal kingdom.</i><br />
<br />
<img alt="Betsy" src="http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/03/animal-minds/img/animal-minds-hdr.jpg" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /><br />
<i>Copyright Vincent J. Musi, National Geographic</i><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-134" style="color: #0066cc;"></a><br />
<br />
A dog with a vocabulary of 340 words. A parrot that answers “shape” if asked what is different, and “color” if asked what is the same, while being showed two items of different shape and same color. An octopus with “distinct personality” that amuses itself by shooting water at plastic-bottle targets (the first reported invertebrate play behavior). Lemurs with calculatory abilities. Sheep able to recognize faces (of other sheep and humans) long term and that can discern moods. Crows able to make and use tools (in tests, even out of materials never seen before). Human-dolphin communication via an invented sign language (with simple grammar). Dolphins ability to correctly interpret on the first occasion instructions given by a person displayed on a TV screen.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
This may only be the tip of the iceberg…</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Read the article <a href="http://www.jth.ch/thinkBank/article.php?id=114" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">Animal Minds</a> in National Geographic`s March 2008 edition.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Ever think about vegetarianism?</div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/04/22/output/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: output…">output…</a></h2>
<div class="entry" style="line-height: 1.4em;">
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Lecture slides prepared for the <a href="http://twiki.olsen.ch/twiki/bin/view/Routes/OlsenRoutesEssexWorkingGroup" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">university of Essex</a> working group:<a href="http://twiki.olsen.ch/twiki/bin/view/Routes/LectureSeriesStylizedFacts" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">Stylized Facts in FX</a></li>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-133" style="color: #0066cc;"></a></div>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Talks given at the annual meeting of the German Physical Society, Berlin, Germany:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/wfb/jbg%20archive/PhD/public/myStuff/aksoe-2x2.pdf" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">The Backbone of Control</a>, Working Group Physics of Socio-Economic Systems (AKSOE): Social, Information- and Production Networks, 27th of February 2008,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/wfb/jbg%20archive/PhD/public/myStuff/dy-2x2.pdf" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">Global Ownership: Unveiling the Structures of Real-World Complex Networks</a>, Section Dynamics and Statistical Physics (DY): Statistical Physics of Complex Networks, 25th of February 2008,</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Talk given with <a href="http://www.noon.ch/association/about-us/adrian-plattner/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">Adrian Plattner</a> at a monthly meeting of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lions_Clubs_International" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">Lions Club</a> in Basel, Switzerland, 15th of April 2008:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Introducing the Swiss aid organization <a href="http://www.noon.ch/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">noon.ch</a>: <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/wfb/jbg%20archive/activism/2008_Slides_Lion%27s_Club_Basel_15_April08.pdf" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">PDF of talk</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/03/13/quotes/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: quotes">quotes</a></h2>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b>1932</b>: <i><a href="http://books.google.ch/books?id=Nb-h3gq9u9MC&pg=RA1-PA81&lpg=RA1-PA81&dq=%22the+rest+is+chemistry%22&source=web&ots=Rqj95dr0N_&sig=5mLw_WUbmQ-wfHOk746DYMfiDU8&hl=de" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">“The rest is chemistry.”</a></i>; <b>C. D. Anderson</b>; echoing the success of a reductionist approach to understanding the workings of nature after having discovered the positron.</li>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-132" style="color: #0066cc;"></a></div>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b>1972</b>: <i><a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/wfb/research%20archive/complexity/p_w_anderson-more-is%20different.pdf" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">“At each stage [of complexity] entirely new laws, concepts, and generalizations are necessary […]. Psychology is not applied biology, nor is biology applied chemistry.”</a></i>; <b>P. W. Anderson</b>; pointing out that the knowledge about the constituents of a system doesn’t reveal any insights into how the system will behave as a whole, e.g., life, consciousness, …; quote from a Science publication called “More is Different” (Vol. 177, No. 4047).</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b>1980</b>: <i><a href="http://www.chowk.com/articles/5048" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">“…I want to discuss the possibility that the goal of theoretical physics [finding a complete, consistent and unified theory of physical interactions describing all physical observations] might be achieved in the not too distant future say, by the end of the century.”</a></i>; <b>S. Hawking</b>; at the time, 11-dimensional supergravity looked like an exciting candidate, only to be succeeded by superstring and M-theory, and rivaled by loop quantum gravity - to date there is no empirical evidence validating or falsifying these mathematical formalisms; quote from his inaugural lecture as the Lucasian Professor of mathematics at Cambridge.</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b>2000</b>: <i><a href="http://www.comdig.com/stephen-hawking.php" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">“I think the next century will be the century of complexity.”</a></i>; <b>S. Hawking</b>; after the last century was arguably the century of the quantum; quote from a newspaper interview.</li>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/12/19/complex-networks/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: complex networks">complex networks</a></h2>
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The study of complex networks was sparked at the end of the 90s with two seminal papers, describing their universal:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">small-worlds property [1],</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">and scale-free nature [2] (see also this older post: <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/09/10/scaling-laws/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">scaling laws</a>).</li>
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Today, networks are ubiquitous: phenomena in the physical world (e.g., computer networks, transportation networks, power grids, spontaneous synchronization of systems of lasers), biological systems (e.g., neural networks, epidemiology, food webs, gene regulation), and social realms (e.g., trade networks, diffusion of innovation, trust networks, research collaborations, social affiliation) are best understood if characterized as networks.</div>
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The explosion of this field of research was and is coupled with the increasing availability of</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">huge amounts of data, pouring in from neurobiology, genomics, ecology, finance and the Word-wide Web, …,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">computing power and storage facilities.</li>
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Paradigm</h3>
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The new paradigm states that it is best to understand a complex system, if it is mapped to a network. I.e., the links represent the some kind of interaction and the nodes are stripped of any intrinsic quality. So, as an example, you can forget about the complexity of the individual bird, if you model the flocks swarming behavior. (See these older posts: <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/complex/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">complex</a>, <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">fundamental</a>, <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/07/28/swarm-theory/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">swarm theory</a>, <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/04/17/in-a-nutshell/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">in a nutshell</a>.)</div>
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Weights</h3>
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Only in the last years has the attention shifted from this topological level of analysis (either links are present or not) to incorporate weights of links, giving the strength relative to each other. Albeit being harder to tackle, these networks are closer to the real-world system it is modeling.</div>
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Nodes</h3>
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However, there is still one step missing: also the vertices of the network can be assigned with a value, which acts as a proxy for some real-world property that is coded into the network structure.</div>
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The two plots above illustrate the difference if the same network is visualized [3] using weights and values assigned to the vertices (left) or simply plotted as a binary (topological) network (right)…</div>
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<i>References</i></h3>
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[1] <b>Strogatz S. H. and Watts D. J.</b>, 1998, Collective Dynamics of ‘Small-World’ Networks,<br />
Nature, 393, 440–442.</div>
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[2] <b>Albert R. and Barabasi A.-L.</b>, 1999, Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks, <a href="http://www.arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9910332" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">www.arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9910332</a>.</div>
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[3] Cuttlefish Adaptive NetWorkbench and Layout Algorithm:<a href="http://sourceforge.net/projects/cuttlefish/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">sourceforge.net/projects/cuttlefish/</a></div>
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<i>Tags:</i></div>
<span class="UTWPrimaryTags" style="text-indent: 0px;"><a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;"><img alt="Technorati" src="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/wp-content/plugins/UltimateTagWarrior/technoratiicon.jpg" style="border: none;" /></a> <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/complex+networks" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">complex networks</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/complex+systems" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">complex systems</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/network+layout" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">network layout</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/network+visualization" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">network visualization</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/real+world+networks" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">real world networks</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/scale+free+networks" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">scale free networks</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/small+world+networks" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">small world networks</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/weighted+network+analysis" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">weighted network analysis</a></span><span style="text-indent: 0px;"></span></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/12/10/cool-links/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: cool links…">cool links…</a></h2>
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think statistics are boring, irrelevant and hard to understand? well, think again.</div>
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two examples of visually displaying important information in an amazingly cool way:</div>
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snapshots</h3>
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<img alt="worldmapper.org" src="http://j-node.homeip.net/fileadmin/uploads/pics/poverty.png" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /><br />
<i>territory size shows the proportion of all people living on less than or equal to US$1 in purchasing power parity a day.</i><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-125" style="color: #0066cc;"></a><br />
<a href="http://www.worldmapper.org/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">worldmapper.org</a> displays a large collection of world maps, where territories are re-sized on each map according to the subject of interest. sometimes an image says more than a thousand words…</div>
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information:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://www.worldmapper.org/about.html" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">about </a>worldmapper.org</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://ucatlas.ucsc.edu/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">the UC Atlas of Global Inequality</a></li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the algorithm for resizing areas comes from the complex networks community: <a href="http://aps.arxiv.org/abs/physics/0401102/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">Diffusion-based method for producing density equalizing maps</a><br />M. T. Gastner, M. E. J. Newman</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Newman’s <a href="http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/cartograms/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">homepage</a></li>
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evolution</h3>
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<img alt="gapminder.org" src="http://j-node.homeip.net/fileadmin/uploads/pics/gapminder.png" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /></div>
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want to see the global evolution of life expectancy vs. income per capita from 1975 to 2003? and additionally display the co2 emission per capita? choose indicators from areas as diverse as internet users per 1′000 people to contraceptive use amongst adult women and watch the animation.</div>
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<a href="http://tools.google.com/gapminder/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">gapminder</a> is a fantastic tool that really makes you think…</div>
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information:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the <a href="http://www.gapminder.org/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">gapminder.org homepage</a></li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Rosling" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">h. rosling</a> is the director of the gapminder foundation</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">watch him give two inspiring, unusual and tantalizing talks using the gapminder tool: <a href="http://www.gapminder.org/video/talks/ted-2006---debunking-myth-about-the-third-world.html" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">debunking myth about-the third world; 2006</a> and <a href="http://www.gapminder.org/video/talks/ted-2007---the-seemingly-impossible-is-possible.html" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">the seemingly impossible is possible; 2007</a></li>
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<i>tags:</i></div>
<span class="UTWPrimaryTags" style="text-indent: 0px;"><a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;"><img alt="Technorati" src="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/wp-content/plugins/UltimateTagWarrior/technoratiicon.jpg" style="border: none;" /></a> <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/gapminder" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">gapminder</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/global+evolution" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">global evolution</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/globalization" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">globalization</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/hans+rosling" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">hans rosling</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/human+development" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">human development</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/inequality" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">inequality</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/mark+newman" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">mark newman</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/on+line+tools" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">on line tools</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/poverty" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">poverty</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/state+of+the+world" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">state of the world</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/statistics" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">statistics</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/visualization" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">visualization</a>, <a href="http://www.technorati.com/tag/worldmapper" rel="tag" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">worldmapper</a></span><span style="text-indent: 0px;"></span></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/11/10/work-in-progress/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: work in progress…">work in progress…</a></h2>
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<i>Some of the stuff I do all week…</i></div>
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Complex Networks</h3>
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Visualizing a shareholder network:</div>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-119" style="color: #0066cc;"></a><br />
The underlying network visualization framework is <a href="http://jung.sourceforge.net/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">JUNG</a>, with the<a href="http://sourceforge.net/projects/cuttlefish/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">Cuttlefish</a> adaptive networkbench and layout algorithm (coming soon). The GUI uses Swing.</div>
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Stochastic Time Series</h3>
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Scaling laws in financial time series:</div>
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A Java framework allowing the computation and visualization of statistical properties. The GUI is programmed using SWT.</div>
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<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/complex+networks" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">complex networks</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/visualization" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">visualization</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/time+series" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">time series</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/finance" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">finance</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/stochastic" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">stochastic</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tag/scaling+laws" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">scaling laws</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/computers" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">computers</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/java" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">java</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/gui" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">gui</a></i></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/10/28/plugin-of-the-month/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: plugin of the month">plugin of the month</a></h2>
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The Firefox add-on <a href="https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/1593" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">Gspace</a> allows you to use Gmail as a file server:<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-117" style="color: #0066cc;"></a><br />
<i>This extension allows you to use your Gmail Space (4.1 GB and growing) for file storage. It acts as an online drive, so you can upload files from your hard drive and access them from every Internet capable system. The interface will make your Gmail account look like a FTP host.</i></div>
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<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/internet" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">internet</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/web+technologies" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">web technologies</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/computers" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">computers</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/open+source" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">open source</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/firefox" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">firefox</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tag/gmail" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">gmail</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/add-on" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">add-on</a></i></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/10/01/tech-dependence/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: tech dependence…">tech dependence…</a></h2>
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Because technological advancement is mostly quite gradual, one hardly notices it creeping into ones life. Only if you would instantly remove these high tech commodities, you’d realize how dependent one has become.<br />
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A random list of ‘nonphysical’ things I wouldn’t want to live without anymore:</div>
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<b>Internet</b></div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>wikipedia.org</i>: everything you ever wanted to know — and much more</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>google.com</i> (e.g., news, scholar, maps, webmaster tools, …): basically the internet;-)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Web 2.0 communities</i> (e.g., youtube.com, facebook.com, myspace.com, linkedin.com, twitter.com, del.icio.us, …): your virtual social network</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>dict.leo.org</i>: towards the babel fish <i><br /></i></li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>amazon.com</i>: recommendations from the fat tail of the probability distribution<i><br /></i></li>
</ul>
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<b>Tools</b></div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Web browsers</i> (e.g., Firefox): your window to the world</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Version control systems</i> (e.g., Subversion): get organized</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>CMS</i> (e.g., TYPO3): disentangle content from design on your web page and more</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>LaTeX typesetting software</i> (btw, this is not a fetish;-): the only sensible and aesthetic way to write scientific documents</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Wikies</i>: the wonderful world of unstructured collaboration</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Blogs</i>: get it out there</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Java programming language</i>: truly platform independent and with nice GUI toolkits (SWT, Swing, GWT); never want to go back to C++ (and don’t even mention C# or .net)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Eclipse IDE</i>: how much fun can you have while programming?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>MySQL</i>: your very own relational database (the next level: db4o)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>PHP</i>: ok, Ruby is perhaps cooler, but PHP is so easy to work with (e.g., integrating MySQL and web stuff)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Dynamic DNS</i> (e.g., dyndns.com): let your home computer be a node of the internet</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Web server</i> (e.g., Apache 2): open the gateway</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>CSS</i>: ok, if we have to go with HTML, this helps a lot</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>VoIP</i> (e.g., Skype): use your bandwidth</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>P2P</i> (e.g., BitTorrent): pool your network</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Video and audio compression</i> (e.g., MPEG, MP3, AAC, …): information theory at its best</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Scientific computing</i> (R, Octave, gnuplot, …): let your computer do the work</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Open source licenses</i> (Creative Commons, Apache, GNU GPL, …): the philosophy!</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Object-oriented programming paradigm</i>: think design patterns</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Rich Text editors</i>: online WYSIWYG editing, no messing around with HTML tags</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>SSH network protocol</i>: secure and easy networking</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Linux Shell-Programming</i> (”grep”, “sed”, “awk”, “xargs”, pipes, …): old school Unix from the 70s</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>E-mail </i>(e.g., IMAP): oops, nearly forgot that one (which reminds me of something i really, really could do without: <strike style="color: #777777;">spam</strike>)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Graylisting</i>: reduce spam</li>
</ul>
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<b>GNU/Linux</b></div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Debian</i> (e.g., Kubuntu): the basis for it all</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>apt-get package management system</i>: a universe of software at your fingertips</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Compiz Fusion window manager</i>: just to be cool…</li>
</ul>
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It truly makes one wonder, how all this cool stuff can come for free!!!</div>
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<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/internet" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">internet</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/web+technologies" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">web technologies</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/computers" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">computers</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/open+source" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">open source</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/linux" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">linux</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/web+2.0" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">web 2.0</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/social+networks" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">social networks</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/programming" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">programming</a></i></div>
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<h2 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6em; margin: 30px 0px 0px;">
<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/09/28/climate-change-2007/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: climate change 2007">climate change 2007</a></h2>
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Confused about the climate? Not sure what’s happening? Exaggerated fears or impending cataclysm?</div>
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A good place to start is a publication by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_re" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">Swiss Re</a>. It is done in a straightforward, down-to-earth, no-bullshit and sane manner. The source to the whole document is given at the bottom.<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-115" style="color: #0066cc;"></a><br />
<b>Executive Summary</b></div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>The Earth is getting warmer, and it is a widely held view in the scientific community that much of the recent warming is due to human activity. As the Earth warms, the net effect of unabated climate change will ultimately lower incomes and reduce public welfare. Because carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions build up slowly, mitigation costs rise as time passes and the level of CO₂ in the atmosphere increases. As these costs rise, so too do the benefits of reducing CO₂ emissions, eventually yielding net positive returns. Given how CO₂ builds up and remains in the atmosphere, early mitigation efforts are highly likely to put the global economy on a path to achieving net positive benefits sooner rather than later. Hence, the time to act to reduce these emissions is now.</i><i>The climate is what economists call a “public good”: its benefits are available to everyone and one person’s enjoyment and use of it does not affect another’s. Population growth, increased economic activity and the burning of fossil fuels now pose a threat to the climate. The environment is a free resource, vulnerable to overuse, and human activity is now causing it to change. However, no single entity is responsible for it or owns it. This is referred to as the “tragedy of the commons”: everyone uses it free of charge and eventually depletes or damages it. This is why government intervention is necessary to protect our climate.</i></div>
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<i>Climate is global: emissions in one part of the world have global repercussions. This makes an international government response necessary. Clearly, this will not be easy. The Kyoto Protocol for reducing CO₂ emissions has had some success, but was not considered sufficiently fair to be signed by the United States, the country with the highest volume of CO₂ emissions. Other voluntary agreements, such as the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate – which was signed by the US – are encouraging, but not binding. Thus, it is essential that governments implement national and international mandatory policies to effectively reduce carbon emissions in order to ensure the well-being of future generations.</i></div>
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<i>The pace, extent and effects of climate change are not known with certainty. In fact, uncertainty complicates much of the discussion about climate change. Not only is the pace of future economic growth uncertain, but also the carbon dioxide and equivalent (CO₂e) emissions associated with economic growth. Furthermore, the global warming caused by a given quantity of CO₂e emissions is also uncertain, as are the costs and impact of temperature increases.</i></div>
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<i>Though uncertainty is a key feature of climate change and its impact on the global economy, this cannot be an excuse for inaction. The distribution and probability of the future outcomes of climate change are heavily weighted towards large losses in global welfare. The likelihood of positive future outcomes is minor and heavily dependent upon an assumed maximum climate change of 2° Celsius above the pre-industrial average. The probability that a “business as usual” scenario – one with no new emission-mitigation policies – will contain global warming at 2° Celsius is generally considered as negligible. Hence, the “precautionary principle” – erring on the safe side in the face of uncertainty – dictates an immediate and vigorous global mitigation strategy for reducing CO₂e emissions.</i></div>
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<i>There are two major types of mitigation strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions: a cap-and-trade system and a tax system. The cap-and-trade system establishes a quantity target, or cap, on emissions and allows emission allocations to be traded between companies, industries and countries. A tax on, for example, carbon emissions could also be imposed, forcing companies to internalize the cost of their emissions to the global climate and economy. Over time, quantity targets and carbon taxes would need to become increasingly restrictive as targets fall and taxes rise. Though both systems have their own merits, the cap-and-trade policy has an edge over the carbon tax, given the uncertainty about the costs and benefits of reducing emissions. First, cap-and-trade policies rely on market mechanisms – fluctuating prices for traded emissions – to induce appropriate mitigating strategies, and have proved effective at reducing other types of noxious gases. Second, caps have an economic advantage over taxes when a given level of emissions is required. There is substantial evidence that emissions need to be capped to restrict global warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels or a little more than 1 °C compared to today. Given that the stabilization of emissions at current levels will most likely result in another degree rise in temperature and that current economic growth is increasing emissions, the precautionary principle supports a cap-and-trade policy. Finally, cap-and-trade policies are more politically feasible and palatable than carbon taxes. They are more widely used and understood and they do not require a tax increase. They can be implemented with as much or as little revenue-generating capacity as desired. They also offer business and consumers a great deal of choice and flexibility. A cap-and-trade policy should be easier to adopt in a wide variety of political environments and countries.</i></div>
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<i>Whichever system – cap-and-trade or carbon tax – is adopted, there are distributional issues that must be addressed. Under a quantity target, allocation permits have value and can be granted to businesses or auctioned. A carbon tax would raise revenues that could be recycled, for example, into research on energy-efficient technologies. Or the revenues could be used to offset inefficient taxes or to reduce the distributional aspects of the carbon tax.</i></div>
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<b>Source</b>: “The economic justification for imposing restraints on carbon emissions”, Swiss Re, Insights, 2007; <a href="http://www.jth.ch/thinkBank/article.php?id=113" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">PDF</a></div>
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<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/climate+change" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">climate change</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/environment" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">environment</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/global+warming" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">global warming</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/economics" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">economics</a></i></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/09/10/scaling-laws/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: scaling laws">scaling laws</a></h2>
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Scaling-law relations characterize an immense number of natural processes, prominently in the form of</div>
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<li style="list-style: decimal outside; margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px; padding: 0px;">scaling-law distributions,</li>
<li style="list-style: decimal outside; margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px; padding: 0px;">scale-free networks,</li>
<li style="list-style: decimal outside; margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px; padding: 0px;">cumulative relations of stochastic processes.</li>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-113" style="color: #0066cc;"></a><br />
A scaling law, or power law, is a simple polynomial functional relationship, i.e., <i>f</i>(<i>x</i>) depends on a power of <i>x</i>. Two properties of such laws can easily be shown:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">a logarithmic mapping yields a linear relationship,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">scaling the function’s argument <i>x</i> preserves the shape of the function<i>f</i>(<i>x</i>), called scale invariance.</li>
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See (Sornette, 2006).</div>
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Scaling-Law Distributions</h3>
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Scaling-law distributions have been observed in an extraordinary wide range of natural phenomena: from physics, biology, earth and planetary sciences, economics and finance, computer science and demography to the social sciences; see (Newman, 2004). It is truly amazing, that such diverse topics as</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the size of earthquakes, moon craters, solar flares, computer files, sand particle, wars and price moves in financial markets,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the number of scientific papers written, citations received by publications, hits on webpages and species in biological taxa,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the sales of music, books and other commodities,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the population of cities,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the income of people,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the frequency of words used in human languages and of occurrences of personal names,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the areas burnt in forest fires,</li>
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are all described by scaling-law distributions. First used to describe the observed income distribution of households by the economist Pareto in 1897, the recent advancements in the study of complex systems have helped uncover some of the possible mechanisms behind this universal law. However, there is as of yet no real understanding of the physical processes driving these systems.</div>
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Processes following normal distributions have a characteristic scale given by the mean of the distribution. In contrast, scaling-law distributions lack such a preferred scale. Measurements of scaling-law processes yield values distributed across an enormous dynamic range (sometimes many orders of magnitude), and for any section one looks at, the proportion of small to large events is the same. Historically, the observation of scale-free or self-similar behavior in the changes of cotton prices was the starting point for Mandelbrot’s research leading to the discovery of fractal geometry; see (Mandelbrot, 1963).</div>
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It should be noted, that although scaling laws imply that small occurrences are extremely common, whereas large instances are quite rare, these large events occur nevertheless much more frequently compared to a normal (or Gaussian) probability distribution. For such distributions, events that deviate from the mean by, e.g., 10 standard deviations (called “10-sigma events”) are practically impossible to observe. For scaling law distributions, extreme events have a small but very real probability of occurring. This fact is summed up by saying that the distribution has a “fat tail” (in the terminology of probability theory and statistics, distributions with fat tails are said to be leptokurtic or to display positive kurtosis) which greatly impacts the risk assessment. So although most earthquakes, price moves in financial markets, intensities of solar flares, … will be very small, the possibility that a catastrophic event will happen cannot be neglected.</div>
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Scale-Free Networks</h3>
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Another modern research field marked by the ubiquitous appearance of scaling-law relations is the study of complex networks. Many different phenomena in the physical (e.g., computer networks, transportation networks, power grids, spontaneous synchronization of systems of lasers), biological (e.g., neural networks, epidemiology, food webs, gene regulation), and social (e.g., trade networks, diffusion of innovation, trust networks, research collaborations, social affiliation) worlds can be understood as network based. In essence, the links and nodes are abstractions describing the system under study via the interactions of the elements comprising it.</div>
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In graph theory, the <i>degree</i> of a node (or vertex), <i>k</i>, describes the number of links (or edges) the node has to other nodes. The degree distribution gives the probability distribution of degrees in a network. For scale-free networks, one finds that the probability that a node in the network connects with <i>k</i> other nodes follows a scaling law. Again, this power law is characterized by the existence of highly connected hubs, whereas most nodes have small degrees.</div>
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Scale-free networks are</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">characterized by high robustness against random failure of nodes, but susceptible to coordinated attacks on the hubs, and</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">thought to arise from a dynamical growth process, called preferential attachment, in which new nodes favor linking to existing nodes with high degrees.</li>
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It should be noted, that another prominent feature of real-world networks, namely the so-called <i>small-world</i> property, is separate from a scale-free degree distribution, although scale-free networks are also small-world networks; (Strogatz and Watts, 1998). For small-world networks, although most nodes are not neighbors of one another, most nodes can be reached from every other by a surprisingly small number of hops or steps.</div>
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Most real-world complex networks - such as those listed at the beginning of this section - show both scale-free and small-world characteristics.</div>
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Some general references include (Barabasi, 2002), (Albert and Barabasi, 2001), and (Newman, 2003). Emergence of scale-free networks in the preferential attachment model (Albert and Barabasi, 1999). An alternative explanation to preferential attachment, introducing non-topological values (called fitness) to the vertices, is given in (Caldarelli <i>et al</i>., 2002).</div>
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Cumulative Scaling-Law Relations</h3>
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Next to distributions of random variables, scaling laws also appear in collections of random variables, called stochastic processes. Prominent empirical examples are financial time-series, where one finds empirical scaling laws governing the relationship between various observed quantities. See (Guillaume <i>et al.</i>, 1997) and (Dacorogna <i>et al.</i>, 2001).</div>
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<i>References</i></h3>
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<b>Albert R. and Barabasi A.-L.</b>, 1999, Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks, http://www.arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9910332.</div>
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<b>Albert R. and Barabasi A.-L.</b>, 2001, Statistical Mechanics of Complex Networks, http://www.arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0106096.</div>
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<b>Barabasi A.-L.</b>, 2002, Linked — The New Science of Networks, Perseus Publishing, Cambridge, Massachusetts.</div>
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<b>Caldarelli G., Capoccio A.</b>, Rios P. D. L., and Munoz M. A., 2002, Scale- free Networks without Growth or Preferential Attachment: Good get Richer, http://www.arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0207366.</div>
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<b>Dacorogna M. M., Gencay R., Müller U. A., Olsen R. B., and Pictet O. V.</b>, 2001, An Introduction to High-Frequency Finance, Academic Press, San Diego, CA.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<b>Guillaume D. M., Dacorogna M. M., Dave R. D., Müller U. A., Olsen R. B., and Pictet O. V.</b>, 1997, From the Bird’s Eye to the Microscope: A Survey of New Stylized Facts of the Intra-Daily Foreign Exchange Markets, Finance and Stochastics, 1, 95–129.</div>
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<b>Mandelbrot B. B.</b>, 1963, The variation of certain speculative prices, Journal of Business, 36, 394–419.</div>
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<b>Newman M. E. J.</b>, 2003, The Structure and Function of Complex Networks, http://www.arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0303516.</div>
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<b>Newman M. E. J.</b>, 2004, Power Laws, Pareto Distributions and Zipf ’s Law, http://www.arXiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0412004.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<b>Sornette D.</b>, 2006, Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences, Series in Synergetics. Springer, Berlin, 2nd edition.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<b>Strogatz S. H. and Watts D. J.</b>, 1998, Collective Dynamics of ‘Small-World’ Networks,<br />
Nature, 393, 440–442.</div>
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See also this post: <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/07/01/laws-of-nature/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">laws of nature</a>.</div>
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<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/scaling+law" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">scaling law</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/power+law" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">power law</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/scale-free+network" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">scale-free network</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/probability+distribution" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">probability distribution</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/stochastic+process" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">stochastic process</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/scale+invariance" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">scale invariance</a></i></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/07/28/swarm-theory/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: swarm theory">swarm theory</a></h2>
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National Geographic`s July 2007 edition: <a href="http://www.jth.ch/thinkBank/article.php?id=100" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">Swarm Theory</a></div>
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<i>A single ant or bee isn’t smart, but their colonies are. The study of swarm intelligence is providing insights that can help humans manage complex systems.</i></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/07/24/benfords-law/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: benford’s law">benford’s law</a></h2>
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In 1881 a result was published, based on the observation that the first pages of logarithm books, used at that time to perform calculations, were much more worn than the other pages. The conclusion was that computations of numbers that started with 1 were performed more often than others: if d denotes the first digit of a number the probability of its appearance is equal to log(d + 1).<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-110" style="color: #0066cc;"></a><br />
The phenomenon was rediscovered in 1938 by the physicist F. Benford, who confirmed the “law” for a large number of random variables drawn from geographical, biological, physical, demographical, economical and sociological data sets. It even holds for randomly compiled numbers from newspaper articles. Specifically, Benford’s law, or the first-digit law, states, that the occurrence of a number with first digit 1 is with 30.1%, 2 with 17.6%, 3 with 12.5%, 4 with 9.7%, 5 with 7.9%, 6 with 6.7%, 7 with 5.8%, 8 with 5.1% and 9 with 4.6% probability. In general, the leading digit d ∈ [1, …, b−1] in base b ≥ 2 occurs with probability proportional to log_b(d + 1) − log_b(d) = log_b(1 + 1/d).</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
First explanations of this phenomena, which appears to suspend the notions of probability, focused on its logarithmic nature which implies a scale-invariant or power-law distribution. If the first digits have a particular distribution, it must be independent of the measuring system, i.e., conversions from one system to another don’t affect the distribution. (This requirement that physical quantities are independent of a chosen representation is one of the cornerstones of general relativity and called covariance.) So the common sense requirement that the dimensions of arbitrary measurement systems shouldn’t affect the measured physical quantities, is summarized in Benford’s law. In addition, the fact that many processes in nature show exponential growth is also captured by the law, which assumes that the logarithms of numbers are uniformly distributed.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
So how come one observes random variables following normal and scaling-law distributions? In 1996 the phenomena was mathematically rigorously proven: if one repeatedly chooses different probability distribution and then randomly chooses a number according to that distribution, the resulting list of numbers will obey Benford’s law. Hence the law reflects the behavior of distributions of distributions.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Benford’s law has been used to detect fraud in insurance, accounting or expenses data, where people forging numbers tend to distribute their digits uniformly.</div>
<div class="bodytext" style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>See <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/essays/science/patterns-and-laws/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">http://j-node.homeip.net/essays/science/patterns-and-laws/</a></i></div>
<div class="bodytext" style="font-size: 1.05em;">
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<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/benford" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">benford</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/probability" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">probability</a></i></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/07/13/109/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: infinity?">infinity?</a></h2>
<div class="entry" style="line-height: 1.4em;">
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There is an interesting observation or conjecture to be made from the Mataphysics Map in the post <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/04/02/what-can-we-know/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">what can we know?</a>, concerning the nature of infinity.<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-109" style="color: #0066cc;"></a></div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
The Finite</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Many observations reveal a finite nature of reality:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Energy comes in finite parcels (quatum mechanics)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The knowledge one can have about quanta is a fixed value (uncertainty)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Energy is conserved in the universe</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The speed of light has the same constant value for all observers (special relativity)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The age of the universe is finite</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Information is finite and hence can be coded into a binary language</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Newer and more radical theories propose:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Space comes in finite parcels</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Time comes in finite parcels</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The universe is spatially finite</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The maximum entropy in any given region of space is proportional to the regions surface area and not its volume (this leads to the holographic principle stating that our three dimensional universe is a projection of physical processes taking place on a two dimensional surface surrounding it)</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
So finiteness appears to be an intrinsic feature of the Outer Reality box of the diagram.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
There is in fact a movement in physics ascribing to the finiteness of reality, called <i>Digital Philosophy</i>. Indeed, this finiteness postulate is a prerequisite for an even bolder statement, namely, that the universe is one gigantic computer (a Turing complete cellular automata), where reality (thought and existence) is equivalent to computation. As mentioned above, the selforganizing structure forming evolution of the universe can be seen to produce ever more complex modes of information processing (e.g., storing data in DNA, thoughts, computations, simulations and perhaps, in the near future, quantum computations).</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
There is also an approach to quantum mechanics focussing on information stating that an elementary quantum system carries (is?) one bit of information. This can be seen to lead to the notions of quantisation, uncertainty and entanglement.</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
The Infinite</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
It should be noted that zero is infinity in disguise. If one lets the denominator of a fraction go to infinity, the result is zero. Historically, zero was discovered in the 3rd century BC in India and was introduced to the Western world by Arabian scholars in the 10th century AC. As ordinary as zero appears to us today, the great Greek mathematicians didn’t come up with such a concept.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Indeed, infinity is something intimately related to formal thought systems (mathematics). Irrational numbers have an infinite number of digits. There are two measures for infinity: countability and uncountablility. The former refers to infinite series as 1, 2, 3, … Whereas for the latter measure, starting from 1.0 one can’t even reach 1.1 because there are an infinite amount of numbers in the interval between 1.0 and 1.1. In geometry, points and lines are idealizations of dimension zero and one, respectively.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
So it appears as though infinity resides only in the Inner Reality box of the diagram.</div>
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The Interface</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
If it should be true that we live in a finite reality with infinity only residing within the mind as a concept, then there should be some problems if one tries to model this finite reality with an infinity-harboring formalism.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Perhaps this is indeed so. In chaos theory, the sensitivity to initial conditions (butterfly effect) can be viewed as the problem of measuring numbers: the measurement can only have a finite degree of accuracy, whereas the numbers have, in principle, an infinite amount of decimal places.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
In quatum gravity (the, as yet, unsuccessful merger of quantum mechanics and gravity) many of the inherent problems of the formalism could by bypassed, when a theory was proposed (string theory) that replaced (zero space) point particles with one dimensionally extended objects. Later incarnations, called M-theory, allowed for multidimensional objects.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
In the above mentioned information based view of quantum mechanics, the world appears quantised because the information retrieved by our minds about the world is inevitably quantised.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
So the puzzle deepens. Why do we discover the notion of infinity in our minds while all our experiences and observations of nature indicate finiteness?</div>
<div class="bodytext" style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>Taken from <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/knowledgebase/metaphysics/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">http://j-node.homeip.net/knowledgebase/metaphysics/</a></i></div>
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<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/metaphysics" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">metaphysics</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/infinity" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">infinity</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/finite" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">finite</a></i></div>
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<h2 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6em; margin: 30px 0px 0px;">
<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/05/16/103/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: medical studies">medical studies</a></h2>
<div class="entry" style="line-height: 1.4em;">
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
introduction</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
medical studies often contradict each other. results claiming to have “proven” some causal connection are confronted with results claiming to have “disproven” the link, or vice versa. this dilemma affects even reputable scientists publishing in leading medical journals. <a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-103" style="color: #0066cc;"></a>the topics are divers:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">high-voltage power supply lines and leukemia [1],</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">salt and high blood pressure [1],</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">heart diseases and sport [1],</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">stress and breast cancer [1],</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">smoking and breast cancer [1],</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">praying and higher chances of healing illnesses [1],</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the effectiveness of homeopathic remedies and natural medicine,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">vegetarian diets and health,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">low frequency electromagnetic fields and electromagnetic hypersensitivity [2],</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">…</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
basically, this is understood to happen for three reasons:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">i.) the bias towards publishing positive results,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">ii.) incompetence in applying statistics,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">ii.) simple fraud.</li>
</ul>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
i.)</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
publish or perish. in order the guarantee funding and secure the academic status quo, results are selected by their chance of being published.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
an independent analysis of the original data used in 100 published studies exposed that roughly half of them showed large discrepancies in the original aims stated by the researchers and the reported findings, implying that the researchers simply skimmed the data for publishable material [3].</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
this proves fatal in combination with ii.) as every statistically significant result can occur (per definition) by chance in an arbitrary distribution of measured data. so if you only look long enough for arbitrary results in your data, you are bound to come up with something [1].</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
ii.)</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
often, due to budget reasons, the numbers of test persons for clinical trials are simply too small to allow for statistical relevance. ref. [4] showed next to other things, that the smaller the studies conducted in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
statistical significance - often evaluated by some statistics software package - is taken as proof without considering the plausibility of the result. many statistically significant results turn out to be meaningless coincidences after accounting for the plausibility of the finding [1].</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
one study showed that one third of frequently cited results fail a later verification [1].</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
another study documented that roughly 20% of the authors publishing in the magazine “nature” didn’t understand the statistical method they were employing [5].</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
iii.) a.)</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
two thirds of of the clinical biomedical research in the usa is supported by the industry - double as much as in 1980 [1].</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
it was shown that in 1000 studies done in 2003, the nature of the funding correlated with the results: 80% of industry financed studies had positive results, whereas only 50% of the independent research reported positive findings.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
it could be argued that the industry has a natural propensity to identify effective and lucrative therapies. however, the authors show that many impressive results were only obtained because they were compared with weak alternative drugs or placebos. [6]</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
iii.) b.)</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
quoted from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wakefield" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">wikipedia.org</a>:</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
“Andrew Wakefield (born 1956 in the United Kingdom) is a Canadian trained surgeon, best known as the lead author of a controversial 1998 research study, published in the Lancet, which reported bowel symptoms in a selected sample of twelve children with autistic spectrum disorders and other disabilities, and alleged a possible connection with MMR vaccination. Citing safety concerns, in a press conference held in conjunction with the release of the report Dr. Wakefield recommended separating the components of the injections by at least a year. The recommendation, along with widespread media coverage of Wakefield’s claims was responsible for a decrease in immunisation rates in the UK. The section of the paper setting out its conclusions, known in the Lancet as the “interpretation” (see the text below), was subsequently retracted by ten of the paper’s thirteen authors.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
[…]</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
In February of 2004, controversy resurfaced when Wakefield was accused of a conflict of interest. The London Sunday Times reported that some of the parents of the 12 children in the Lancet study were recruited via a UK attorney preparing a lawsuit against MMR manufacturers, and that the Royal Free Hospital had received £55,000 from the UK’s Legal Aid Board (now the Legal Services Commission) to pay for the research. Previously, in October 2003, the board had cut off public funding for the litigation against MMR manufacturers. Following an investigation of The Sunday Times allegations by the UK General Medical Council, Wakefield was charged with serious professional misconduct, including dishonesty, due to be heard by a disciplinary board in 2007.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
In December of 2006, the Sunday Times further reported that in addition to the money given to the Royal Free Hospital, Wakefield had also been personally paid £400,000 which had not been previously disclosed by the attorneys responsible for the MMR lawsuit.”</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
wakefield had always only expressed his criticism of the combined triple vaccination, supporting single vaccinations spaced in time. the british tv station channel 4 exposed in 2004 that he had applied for patents for the single vaccines. wakefield dropped his subsequent slander action against the media company only in the beginning of 2007. as mentioned, he now awaits charges for professional misconduct. however, he has left britain and now works for a company in austin texas. it has been uncovered that other employees of this us company had received payments from the same attorney preparing the original law suit. [7]</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
update: december 2007: <a href="http://science.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/12/06/173225&from=rss" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">slashdot: “YouTube Breeding Harmful Scientific Misinformation”</a>.</div>
<h3 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.3em; margin: 30px 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">
epilog</h3>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
should we be surprised by all of this? next to the innate tendency of human beings to be incompetent and unscrupulous, there is perhaps another level, that makes this whole endeavor special.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
the inability of scientist to conclusively and reproducibly uncover findings concerning human beings is maybe better appreciated, if one considers the nature of the subject under study. life, after all, is an enigma and the connection linking the mind to matter is elusive at best (i.e., the physical basis of consciousness).</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
the bodies capability to heal itself, i.e., the placebo effect and the need for double-blind studies is indeed very bizarre. however, there are studies questioning, if the effect exists at all;-)</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>taken from<a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/essays/science/medical-studies/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;"><br />http://j-node.homeip.net/essays/science/medical-studies/</a> (consult also for the corresponding links for the sources cited below)</i></div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i><br /></i>—</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
[1] This article in the magazine issued by the Neue Zürcher Zeitung by Robert Matthews<br />
[2] C. Schierz; Projekt NEMESIS; ETH Zürich; 2000<br />
[3] A. Chan (Center of Statistics in Medicine, Oxford) et. al.; Journal of the American Medical Association; 2004<br />
[4] J. Ioannidis; “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False” ; University of Ioannina; 2005<br />
[5] R. Matthews, E. García-Berthou and C. Alcaraz as reported in this “Nature” article; 2005<br />
[6] C. Gross (Yale University School of Medicine) et. al.; “Scope and Impact of Financial Conflicts of Interest in Biomedical Research “; Journal of the American Medical Association; 2003<br />
[7] H. Kaulen; “Wie ein Impfstoff zu Unrecht in Misskredit gebracht wurde”; Deutsches Ärzteblatt; Jg. 104; Heft 4; 26. Januar 2007</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/medical+studies" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">medical studies</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/statistics" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">statistics</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/statistical+analysis" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">statistical analysis</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/fraud" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">fraud</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/sloppy" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">sloppy</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tag/biased" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">biased</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/human+beings" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">human beings</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/life" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">life</a></i></div>
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<h2 style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.6em; margin: 30px 0px 0px;">
<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/04/17/in-a-nutshell/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: in a nutshell">in a nutshell</a></h2>
<div class="entry" style="line-height: 1.4em;">
<h4>
Introduction</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Science, put simply, can be understood as working on three levels:<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-95" style="color: #0066cc;"></a></div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">i.) analyzing the nature of the object being considered/observed,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">ii.) developing the formal representation of the object’s features and its dynamics/interactions,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">iii.) devising methods for the empirical validation of the formal representations.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
To be precise, level i.) lies more within the realm of philosophy (e.g., epistemology) and metaphysics (i.e., ontology), as notions of origin, existence and reality appear to transcend the objective and rational capabilities of thought. The main problem being:<br />
<i>“Why is there something rather than nothing? For nothingness is simpler and easier than anything.”</i>; [1].</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
In the history of science the above mentioned formulation made the understanding of at least three different levels of reality possible:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">a.) the fundamental level of the natural world,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">b.) inherently random phenomena,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">c.) complex systems.</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
While level a.) deals mainly with the quantum realm and cosmological structures, levels b.) and c.) are comprised mostly of biological, social and economic systems.</div>
<h4>
Examples</h4>
<h5>
a.) Fundamental</h5>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Many natural sciences focus on a.i.) fundamental, isolated objects and interactions, use a.ii.) mathematical models which are a.iii.) verified (falsified) in experiments that check the predictions of the model - with great success:<br />
<i>“The enormous usefulness of mathematics in the natural sciences is something bordering on the mysterious. There is no rational explanation for it.”</i>; [2].</div>
<h5>
b.) Random</h5>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Often the nature of the object b.i.) being analyzed is in principle unknown. Only statistical evaluations of sets of outcomes of single observations/experiments can be used to estimate b.ii.) the underlying model, and b.iii.) test it against more empirical data. Often the approach taken in the fields of social sciences, medicine, and business.</div>
<h5>
c.) Complex</h5>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Moving to c.i.) complex, dynamical systems, and c.ii.) employing computer simulations as a template for the dynamical process, unlocks a new level of reality: mainly the complex and interacting world we experience at our macroscopic length scales in the universe. Here two new paradigms emerge:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the shift from mathematical (analytical) models to algorithmic computations and simulations performed in computers,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">simple rules giving rise to complex behavior: <i>“And I realized, that I had seen a sign of a quite remarkable and unexpected phenomenon: that even from very simple programs behavior of great complexity could emerge.”</i>; [3].</li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
However, things are not as clear anymore. What is the exact methodology, and how does it relate to underlying concepts of ontology and epistemology, and what is the nature of these computations <i>per se</i>? Or within the formulation given above, i.e., iii.c.), what is the “reality” of these models: what do the local rules determining the dynamics in the simulation have to say about the reality of the system c.i.) they are trying to emulate?</div>
<h4>
Outlook</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
There are many coincidences that enabled the structured reality we experience on this planet to have evolve: exact values of fundamental constants (initial conditions), emerging structure-forming and self-organizing processes, the possibility of (organic) matter to store information (after being synthesized in supernovae!), the right conditions of earth for harboring life, the emergent possibilities of neural networks to establish consciousness and sentience above a certain threshold, …</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Interestingly, there are also many circumstances that allow the observable world to be understood by the human mind:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the mystery allowing formal thought systems to map to patterns in the real world,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the development of the technology allowing for the design and realization of microprocessors,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the bottom-up approach to complexity identifying a micro level of simple interactions of system elements.</li>
</ul>
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So it appears that the human mind is intimately interwoven with the fabric of reality that produced it.</div>
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But where is all this leading to? There exists a natural extension to science which fuses the notions from levels a.) to c.), namely</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">information and information processing,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">formal mathematical models,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">statistics and randomness.</li>
</ul>
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Notably, it comes from an engineering point-of-view and deals with quantum computers and comes full circle back to level i.), the question about the nature of reality:<br />
<i>“[It can be shown] that quantum computers can simulate any system that obeys the known laws of physics in a straightforward and efficient way. In fact, the universe is indistinguishable from a quantum computer.”</i>; [4].</div>
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At first blush the idea of substituting reality with a computed simulation appears rather <i>ad hoc</i>, but in fact it does have potentially falsifiable notions:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the discreteness of reality, i.e., the notion that continuity and infinity are not physical,</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">the reality of the quantum realm should be contemplated from the point of view of information, i.e., the only relevant reality subatomic quanta manifest is that they register one bit of information: <i>“Information is physical.”</i>; [5].</li>
</ul>
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—-</div>
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[1] von Leibniz, G. W., “Principes de la nature et de la grâce”, 1714</div>
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[2] Wigner, E. P., “Symmetries and Reflections”, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1967</div>
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[3] Wolfram, S., “A New Kind of Science”, Wolfram Media, pg. 19, 2002</div>
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[4] Lloyd, S., “Programming the Universe”, Random House, pgs. 53 - 54, 2006</div>
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[5] Landauer, R., Nature, 335, 779-784, 1988</div>
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See also: “<a class="external-link-new-window" href="http://xxx.lanl.gov/abs/0704.0646" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;" title="Opens external link in new window">The Mathematical Universe</a>” by M. Tegmark.</div>
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Related posts:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/04/02/what-can-we-know/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">what can we know?</a></li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><span class="internal-link"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">fundamental</a> and <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/complex/" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;">complex</a></span></li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<span class="internal-link"><i>Taken from <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/knowledgebase/in-a-nutshell/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">http://j-node.homeip.net/knowledgebase/in-a-nutshell/</a></i></span></div>
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See also this post: <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/07/01/laws-of-nature/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">laws of nature</a>.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/science" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">science</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/empirical+validation" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">empirical validation</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/representation" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">representation</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/fundamental" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">fundamental</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tag/random" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">random</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/complex" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">complex</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/information" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">information</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/discrete" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">discrete</a></i></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/04/02/what-can-we-know/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: what can we know?">what can we know?</a></h2>
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Put bluntly, metaphysics asks simple albeit deep questions:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Why do I exist?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Why do I die?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Why does the world exist?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Where did everything come from?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">What is the nature of reality?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">What is the meaning of existence?</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Is there a creator or omnipotent being?</li>
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-84" style="color: #0066cc;"></a></div>
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Although these questions may appear idle and futile, they seem to represent an innate longing for knowledge of the human mind. Indeed, children can and often do pose such questions, only to be faced with resignation or impatience of adults.</div>
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To make things simpler and tractable, one can focus on the question “What can we know?”.</div>
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When you wake up in the morning, you instantly become aware of your self, i.e., you experience an immaterial inner reality you can feel and probe with your thoughts. Upon opening your eyes, a structured material outer reality appears. These two unsurmountable facts are enough to sketch a small metaphysical diagram:</div>
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<img src="http://j-node.homeip.net/typo3temp/pics/3d064240cd.jpg" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /></div>
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Outside</h4>
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Focussing on the outer reality or physical universe, there exists an underlying structure forming and selforganizing process starting with an initial singularity or Big Bang (extremely low entropy state, i.e., high order, giving rise to the arrow or direction of time). Due to the exact values of physical constants in our universe, this organizing process yields structures eventually giving birth to stars, which, at the end of their lifecycle, explode (supernovae) allowing for nuclear reactions to fuse heavy elements.</div>
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One of these heavy elements brings with it novel bonding possibilities, resulting in a new pattern: organic matter. Within a couple of billion years, the structure forming process gave rise to a plethora of living organisms. Although each organism would die after a short lifespan, the process of life as a whole continued to live in a sustainable equilibrium state and survived a couple of extinction events (some of which eradicated nearly 90% of all species).</div>
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The second law of thermodynamics states, that the entropy of the universe is increasing, i.e., the universe is becoming an ever more unordered place. It would seem that the process of life creating stable and ordered structures violates this law. In fact, complex structures spontaneously appear where there is a steady flow of energy from a high temperature input source (the sun) to a low temperature external sink (the earth). So pumping a system with energy leads it to a state far from the thermodynamic equilibrium which is characterized by the emergence of ordered structures.</div>
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Viewed from an information processing perspective, the organizing process suddenly experienced a great leap forward. The brains of some organisms had reached a critical mass, allowing for another emergent behavior: consciousness.</div>
<h4>
Inside</h4>
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The majority of people in industrialized nations take a rational and logicall outlook on life. Although one might think this is an inevitable mode of awareness, it actually is a cultural imprinting as there exist other civilization putting far less emphasis on rationality.</div>
<div class="bodytext" style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Perhaps the divide between Western and Eastern thinking illustrates this best. Whereas the former is locked in continuous interaction with the outer world, the latter focuses on the experience of an inner reality. A history of meditation techniques underlines this emphasis on the nonverbal experience of ones self. Thought is either totally avoided, or the mind is focused on repetitive activities, in effect deactivating it.</div>
<div class="bodytext" style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Recall from <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">fundamental</a> that there are two surprising facts to be found. On the one hand, the physical laws dictating the fundamental behavior of the universe can be mirrored by formal thought systems devised by the mind. And on the other hand, real complex behavior can be emulated by computer simulations following simple laws (the computers themselves are an example of technological advances made possible by the successfull modelling of nature by formal thought systems).</div>
<h4>
Outlook</h4>
<div class="bodytext" style="font-size: 1.05em;">
This conceptual map allows one to categorize a lot of stuff in a concise manner. Also, the interplay between the outer and inner realities becomes visible. However, the above mentioned questions remain unanswered. Indeed, more puzzles appear. So as usual, every advance in understanding just makes the question mark bigger…</div>
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Continued here: <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/07/13/109/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">infinity?</a></div>
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<i>Taken from <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/knowledgebase/metaphysics/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">http://j-node.homeip.net/knowledgebase/metaphysics/</a></i></div>
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<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/metaphysics" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">metaphysics</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/outer+reality" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">outer reality</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/physical+reality" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">physical reality</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/inner+reality" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">inner reality</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/mind" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">mind</a></i></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/04/02/invariant-thinking/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: invariant thinking…">invariant thinking…</a></h2>
<div class="entry" style="line-height: 1.4em;">
<div class="bodytext" style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Arguably the most fruitful principle in physics has been the notion of symmetry. <a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-83" style="color: #0066cc;"></a>Covariance and gauge invariance - two simply stated symmetry conditions - are at the heart of general relativity and the standard model (of particle physics).</div>
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This is not only aesthetically pleasing it also illustrates a basic fact: in coding reality into a formal system, we should only allow the most minimal reference to be made to this formal system. I.e. reality likes to be translated into a language that doesn’t explicitly depend on its own peculiarities (coordinates, number bases, units, …). This is a pretty obvious idea and allows for physical laws to be universal.</div>
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But what happens if we take this idea to the logical extreme? Will the ultimate theory of reality demand: I will only allow myself to be coded into a formal framework that makes <b>no</b> reference to itself whatsoever. Obviously a mind twister. But the question remains: what is the ultimate symmetry idea? Or: what is the ultimate invariant?</div>
<div class="bodytext" style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Does this imply “invariance” even with respect to our thinking? How do we construct a system that supports itself out of itself, without relying on anything external? Can such a magical feat be performed by our thinking?</div>
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<i>Taken from this <a class="external-link-new-window" href="http://groups.google.com/group/sci.physics.research/msg/f255c6ba9b260374?hl=en&" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank" title="Opens external link in new window">newsgroup message</a></i><i>…</i></div>
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<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/invariance" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">invariance</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/symmetry" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">symmetry</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/thinking" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">thinking</a></i></div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/complex/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: complex">complex</a></h2>
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<i>See also:</i> <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">fundamental</a></div>
<h4>
Outline</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
While physics has had an amazing success in describing most of the observable universe in the last 300 years, the formalism appears to be restricted to the fundamental workings of nature. <a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-74" style="color: #0066cc;"></a>Only solid-state physics attempts to deal with collective systems. And only thanks to the magic of symmetry one is able to deduce fundamental analytical solutions.</div>
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In order to approach real life complex phenomena, one needs to adopt a more systems oriented focus. This also means that the interactions of entities becomes an integral part of the formalism.</div>
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Some ideas should illustrate the situation:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Most calculations in physics are idealizations and neglect dissipative effects like friction</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Most calculations in physics deal with linear effect, as non-linearity is hard to tackle and is associated with chaos; however, most physical systems in nature are inherently non-linear</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The analytical solution of three gravitating bodies in classical mechanics, given their initial positions, masses, and velocities, cannot be found; it turns out to be a chaotic system which can only be simulated in a computer; however, there are an estimated hundred billion of galaxies in the universe</li>
</ul>
<h4>
Systems Thinking</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>Systems theory</i> is an interdisciplinary field which studies relationships of systems as a whole. The goal is to explain complex systems which consist of a large number of mutually interacting and interwoven parts in terms of those interactions.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
A timeline:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Cybernetics</i> (50s): Study of communication and control, typically involving regulatory feedback, in living organisms and machines</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Catastrophe theory</i> (70s): Phenomena characterized by sudden shifts in behavior arising from small changes in circumstances</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Chaos theory</i> (80s): Describes the behavior of non-linear dynamical systems that under certain conditions exhibit a phenomenon known as chaos (sensitivity to initial conditions, regimes of chaotic and deterministic behavior, fractals, self-similarity)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i>Complex adaptive systems</i> (90s): The “new” science of complexity which describes emergence, adaptation and self-organization; employing tools such as agent-based computer simulations</li>
</ul>
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In systems theory one can distinguish between three major hierarchies:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Suborganic: Fundamental reality, space and time, matter, …</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Organic: Life, evolution, …</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Metaorganic: Consciousness, group dynamical behavior, financial markets, …</li>
</ul>
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However, it is not understood how one can traverse the following chain: bosons and fermions -> atoms -> molecules -> DNA -> cells -> organisms -> brains. I.e., how to understand phenomena like consciousness and life within the context of inanimate matter and fundamental theories.</div>
<h4>
Illustrations</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<img alt="e.g., systems view" src="http://j-node.homeip.net/tech_wiki/images/0/0f/Sys.jpg" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /></div>
<h5>
Category Theory</h5>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
The mathematical theory called <i>category theory</i> is a result of the “unification of mathematics” in the 40s. A category is the most basic structure in mathematics and is a set of objects and a set of morphisms (maps). A <i>functor</i> is a structure-preserving map between categories.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
This dynamical systems picture can be linked to the notion of formal systems mentioned above: physical observables are functors, independent of a chosen representation or reference frame, i.e., invariant and covariant.</div>
<h5>
Object-Oriented Programming</h5>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
This paradigm of programming can be viewed in a systems framework, where the objects are implementations of <i>classes</i> (collections of properties and functions) interacting via functions (<i>public methods</i>). A programming problem is analyzed in terms of objects and the nature of communication between them. When a program is executed, objects interact with each other by sending messages. The whole system obeys certain rules (<i>encapsulation</i>, <i>inheritance</i>, <i>polymorphism</i>, …).</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Some advantages of this integral approach to software development:</div>
<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px; text-indent: -10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Easier to tackle complex problems</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Allows natural evolution towards complexity and better modeling of the real world</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Reusability of concepts (<i>design patterns</i>) and easy modifications and maintenance of existing code</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Object-oriented design has more in common with natural languages than other (i.e., <span id="intelliTxt">procedural</span>) approaches</li>
</ul>
<h4>
Algorithmic vs. Analytical</h4>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Perhaps the shift of focus in this new <i>weltbild</i> can be understood best when one considers the paradigm of complex system theory:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><b><i>The interaction of entities (agents) in a system according to simple rules gives rise to complex behavior: Emergence, structure-formation, self-organization, adaptive behavior (learning), …</i></b></li>
</ul>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
This allows a departure from the equation-based description to models of dynamical processes simulated in computers. This is perhaps the second miracle involving the human mind and the understanding of nature. Not only does nature work on a fundamental level akin to formal systems devised by our brains, the hallmark of complexity appears to be coded in simplicity (”simple sets of rules give complexity”) allowing computational machines to emulate its behavior.<br />
<img alt="complex systems" src="http://j-node.homeip.net/tech_wiki/images/e/e0/Complex.jpg" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /></div>
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It is very interesting to note, that in this paradigm the focus is on the interaction, i.e., the complexity of the agent can be ignored. That is why the formalism works for chemicals in a reaction, ants in an anthill, humans in social or economical organizations, … In addition, one should also note, that simple rules - the epitome of deterministic behavior - can also give rise to chaotic behavior.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
The emerging field of <i>network theory</i> (an extension of <i>graph theory,</i>yielding results such as scale-free topologies, small-worlds phenomena, etc. observed in a stunning veriety of complex networks) is also located at this end of the spectrum of the formal descriptions of the workings of nature.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
Finally, to revisit the analytical approach to reality, note that in the loop quantum gravity approach, space-time is perceived as a causal network arising from graph updating rules (<i>spin networks</i>, which are graphs associated with group theoretic properties), where particles are envisaged as ‘topological defects’ and geometric properties of reality, such as dimensionality, are defined solely in terms of the network’s connectivity pattern.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
A <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/tech_wiki/index.php/Complexity:_Open_Questions" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">list of open questions </a>in complexity theory.</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>From: </i><a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/knowledgebase/overview/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">http://j-node.homeip.net/knowledgebase/overview/</a></div>
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<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/complex" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">complex</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/systems+thinking" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">systems thinking</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/algorithmic" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">algorithmic</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/self-organization" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">self-organization</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tag/simple+rules" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">simple rules</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/complex+systems" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">complex systems</a></i></div>
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<small style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; line-height: 1.5em;">This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 28th, 2007 at 12:20 pm and is filed under<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/category/thisnthat/" rel="category tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;" title="View all posts in This'n'that">This'n'that</a>, <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/category/science-overview/" rel="category tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;" title="View all posts in science overview">science overview</a>. You can follow any responses to this entry through the<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/complex/feed/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">RSS 2.0</a> feed. You can <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/complex/#respond" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">leave a response</a>, or <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/complex/trackback/" rel="trackback" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">trackback</a> from your own site.</small></div>
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2 Responses to “complex”</h3>
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<li class="alt" id="comment-1144" style="background-color: #f8f8f8; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: bold; line-height: normal; list-style: none; margin: 15px 0px 3px; padding: 5px 10px 3px;"><cite style="font-size: 1.1em; font-style: normal;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/12/19/complex-networks/" rel="external nofollow" style="color: #0066cc; font-size: 1.1em; text-decoration: none;">jbg » Blog Archive » complex networks</a></cite> Says:<br /><small class="commentmetadata" style="color: #777777; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/complex/#comment-1144" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;" title="">March 13th, 2008 at 6:03 pm</a></small><div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-right: 5px; margin-top: 10px;">
[…] The new paradigm states that it is best to understand a complex system, if it is mapped to a network. I.e., the links represent the some kind of interaction and the nodes are stripped of any intrinsic quality. So, as an example, you can forget about the complexity of the individual bird, if you model the flocks swarming behavior. (See these older posts: complex, fundamental, swarm theory, in a nutshell.) […]</div>
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<li class="" id="comment-1655" style="font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: bold; line-height: normal; list-style: none; margin: 15px 0px 3px; padding: 5px 10px 3px;"><cite style="font-size: 1.1em; font-style: normal;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/07/01/laws-of-nature/" rel="external nofollow" style="color: #0066cc; font-size: 1.1em; text-decoration: none;">jbg » Blog Archive » laws of nature</a></cite> Says:<br /><small class="commentmetadata" style="color: #777777; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/complex/#comment-1655" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;" title="">July 1st, 2008 at 4:32 pm</a></small><div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-right: 5px; margin-top: 10px;">
[…] See also these posts: complex, swarm theory, complex networks. […]</div>
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<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/" rel="bookmark" style="color: #333333; text-decoration: none;" title="Permanent Link: fundamental">fundamental</a></h2>
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Ideas</h4>
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What is science?<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2863038330728908855" id="more-73" style="color: #0066cc;"></a></div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Science is the quest to capture the processes of nature in formal mathematical representations</li>
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So “math is the blueprint of reality” in the sense that formal systems are the foundation of science.<br />
In a nutshell:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Natural systems are a subset of reality, i.e., the observable universe</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Guided by thought, observation and measurement natural systems are “encoded” into formal systems</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Using logic (rules of inference) in the formal system, predictions about the natural system can be made (decoding)</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Checking the predictions with the experimental outcome gives the validity of the formal system as a model for the natural system</li>
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Physics can be viewed as dealing with the fundamental interactions of inanimate matter.</div>
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For a technical overview, go to the <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/tech_wiki/index.php/Fundamental_Level" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">here</a>.<br />
<img alt="math models" src="http://j-node.homeip.net/tech_wiki/images/9/97/Math-models.jpg" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /></div>
<h4>
Paradigm</h4>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;"><i><b>Mathematical models of reality are independent of their formal representation</b></i></li>
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This leads to the notions of <i>symmetry</i> and <i>invariance</i>. Basically, this requirement gives rise to nearly all of physics.</div>
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Classical Mechanics</h5>
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Symmetry, understood as the invariance of the equations under temporal and spacial transformations, gives rise to the conservation laws of energy, momentum and angular momentum.</div>
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In layman terms this means that the outcome of an experiment is unchanged by the time and location of the experiment and the motion of the experimental apparatus. Just common sense…</div>
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Mathematics of Symmetry</h5>
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The intuitive notion of symmetry has been rigorously defined in the mathematical terms of <i>group theory</i>.</div>
<h5>
Physics of Non-Gravitational Forces</h5>
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The three non-gravitational forces are described in terms of <i>quantum field theories</i>. These in turn can be expressed as <i>gauge theories</i>, where the parameters of the gauge transformations are local, i.e., differ from point to point in space-time.</div>
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The <i>Standard Model</i> of elementary particle physics unites the quantum field theories describing the fundamental interactions of particles in terms of their (gauge) symmetries.</div>
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Physics of Gravity</h5>
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Gravity is the only force that can’t be expressed as a quantum field theory.</div>
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Its symmetry principle is called <i>covariance</i>, meaning that in the geometric language of the theory describing gravity (<i>general relativity</i>) the physical content of the equations is unchanged by the choice of the coordinate system used to represent the geometrical entities.</div>
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To illustrate, imagine an arrow located in space. It has a length and an orientation. In geometric terms this is a <i>vector</i>, lets call it <b>a</b>. If I want to compute the length of this arrow, I need to choose a coordinate system, which gives me the x-, y- and z-axes components of the vector, e.g., <b>a</b> = (3, 5, 1). So starting from the origin of my coordinate system (0, 0, 0), if I move 3 units in the x direction (left-right), 5 units in the y-direction (forwards-backwards) and 1 unit in the z direction (up-down), I reach the end of my arrow. The problem is now, that depending on the choice of coordinate system - meaning the orientation and the size of the units - the same arrow can look very different: <b>a</b> = (3, 5, 1) = (0, 23.34, -17). However, everytime I compute the length of the arrow in meters, I get the same number independent of the chosen representation.</div>
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In general relativity the vectors are somewhat like multidimensional equivalents called <i>tensors</i> and the commonsense requirement, that the calculations involving tensor do not depend on how I represent the tensors in space-time, is covariance.</div>
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It is quite amazing, but there is only one more ingredient needed in order to construct one of the most estethic and accurate theories in physics. It is called the <i>equivalence principle</i> and states that the gravitational force is equivalent to the forces experienced during acceleration. This may sound trivial, has however very deep implications.<br />
<img alt="micr macro math models" src="http://j-node.homeip.net/tech_wiki/images/d/d9/Micro_macro.jpg" style="max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;" /></div>
<h5>
Physics of Condensed Matter</h5>
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This branch of physics, also called <i>solid-state physics</i>, deals with the macroscopic physical properties of matter. It is one of physics first ventures into many-body problems in <i>quantum theory</i>. Although the employed notions of symmetry do not act at such a fundamental level as in the above mentioned theories, they are a cornerstone of the theory. Namely the complexity of the problems can be reduced using symmetry in order for analytical solutions to be found. Technically, the symmetry groups are boundary conditions of the <i>Schrödinger equation</i>. This leads to the theoretical framework describing, for example, semiconductors and quasi-crystals (interestingly, they have fractal properties!). In the superconducting phase, the <i>wave function</i>becomes symmetric.</div>
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Conclusion</h4>
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The Success</h5>
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It is somewhat of a miracle, that the formal systems the human brain discovers/devises find their match in the workings of nature. In fact, there is no reason for this to be the case, other than that it is the way things are.</div>
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The following two examples should underline the power of this fact, where new features of reality where discovered solely on the requirements of the mathematical model:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">In order to unify <i>electromagnetism</i> with the <i>weak force</i> (two of the three non-gravitational forces), the theory postulated two new elementary particles: the W and Z bosons. Needless to say, these particles where hitherto unknown and it took 10 years for technology to advance sufficiently in order to allow their discovery.</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">The fusion of quantum mechanics and <i>special relativity</i> lead to the <i>Dirac equation</i> which demands the existence of an, up to then, unknown flavor of matter: <i>antimatter</i>. Four years after the formulation of the theory, antimatter was experimentally discovered.</li>
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<h5>
The Future…</h5>
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Albeit the success, modern physics is still far from being a unified, paradox-free formalism describing all of the observable universe. Perhaps the biggest obstacles lies in the last missing step to unification. In a series of successes, forces appearing as being independent phenomena, turned out to be facets of the same formalism: electricity and magnetism was united in the four <i>Maxwell equations</i>; as mentioned above, electromagnetism and the weak force were merged into the <i>electroweak force</i>; and finally, the electroweak and <i>strong</i> force were united in the framework of the standard model of particle physics. These four forces are all expressed as quantum (field) theories. There is only one observable force left: gravity.<br />
The efforts to quantize gravity and devise a unified theory, have taken a strange turn in the last 20 years. The problem is still unsolved, however, the mathematical formalisms engineered for this quest - namely <i>string/M-theory</i> and <i>loop quantum gravity</i> - have had a twofold impact:</div>
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<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">A new level in the application of formal systems is reached. Whereas before, physics relied on mathematical branches that where developed independently from any physical application (e.g., differential geometry, group theory), string/M-theory is actually spawning new fields of mathematics (namely in <i>topology</i>).</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">These theories tell us very strange things about reality:<ul style="list-style: none; margin-left: 0px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 10px;">
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Time does not exist on a fundamental level</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Space and time <i>per se</i> become quantized</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Space has more than three dimensions</li>
<li style="margin: 7px 0px 8px 10px;">Another breed of fundamental particles is needed: <i>supersymmetric</i>matter</li>
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Unfortunately no one knowns if these theories are hinting at a greater reality behind the observable world, or if they are “just” math. The main problem being the fact that any kind of experiment to verify the claims appears to be out of reach of our technology…</div>
<div style="font-size: 1.05em;">
<i>From: <a href="http://j-node.homeip.net/knowledgebase/overview/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">http://j-node.homeip.net/knowledgebase/overview/</a></i></div>
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<i>tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/science" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">science</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/fundamental" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">fundamental</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/analytical" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">analytical</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/reality" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">reality</a>, <a href="http://technorati.com/tag/mathematical+models" rel="tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">mathematical models</a></i></div>
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<small style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; line-height: 1.5em;">This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 28th, 2007 at 12:16 pm and is filed under<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/category/thisnthat/" rel="category tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;" title="View all posts in This'n'that">This'n'that</a>, <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/category/science-overview/" rel="category tag" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;" title="View all posts in science overview">science overview</a>. You can follow any responses to this entry through the<a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/feed/" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">RSS 2.0</a> feed. You can <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/#respond" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">leave a response</a>, or <a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/trackback/" rel="trackback" style="color: #b85b5a; text-decoration: none;">trackback</a> from your own site.</small></div>
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4 Responses to “fundamental”</h3>
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<li class="alt" id="comment-1577" style="background-color: #f8f8f8; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: bold; line-height: normal; list-style: none; margin: 15px 0px 3px; padding: 5px 10px 3px;"><cite style="font-size: 1.1em; font-style: normal;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/12/19/complex-networks/" rel="external nofollow" style="color: #0066cc; font-size: 1.1em; text-decoration: none;">jbg » Blog Archive » complex networks</a></cite> Says:<br /><small class="commentmetadata" style="color: #777777; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/#comment-1577" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;" title="">May 31st, 2008 at 4:21 pm</a></small><div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-right: 5px; margin-top: 10px;">
[…] The new paradigm states that it is best to understand a complex system, if it is mapped to a network. I.e., the links represent the some kind of interaction and the nodes are stripped of any intrinsic quality. So, as an example, you can forget about the complexity of the individual bird, if you model the flocks swarming behavior. (See these older posts: complex, fundamental, swarm theory, in a nutshell.) […]</div>
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<li class="" id="comment-1643" style="font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: bold; line-height: normal; list-style: none; margin: 15px 0px 3px; padding: 5px 10px 3px;"><cite style="font-size: 1.1em; font-style: normal;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/04/02/what-can-we-know/" rel="external nofollow" style="color: #0066cc; font-size: 1.1em; text-decoration: none;">jbg » Blog Archive » what can we know?</a></cite> Says:<br /><small class="commentmetadata" style="color: #777777; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/#comment-1643" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;" title="">June 30th, 2008 at 1:40 pm</a></small><div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-right: 5px; margin-top: 10px;">
[…] Recall from fundamental that there are two surprising facts to be found. On the one hand, the physical laws dictating the fundamental behavior of the universe can be mirrored by formal thought systems devised by the mind. And on the other hand, real complex behavior can be emulated by computer simulations following simple laws (the computers themselves are an example of technological advances made possible by the successfull modelling of nature by formal thought systems). […]</div>
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<li class="alt" id="comment-1650" style="background-color: #f8f8f8; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: bold; line-height: normal; list-style: none; margin: 15px 0px 3px; padding: 5px 10px 3px;"><cite style="font-size: 1.1em; font-style: normal;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/04/17/in-a-nutshell/" rel="external nofollow" style="color: #0066cc; font-size: 1.1em; text-decoration: none;">jbg » Blog Archive » in a nutshell</a></cite> Says:<br /><small class="commentmetadata" style="color: #777777; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/#comment-1650" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;" title="">July 1st, 2008 at 4:19 pm</a></small><div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-right: 5px; margin-top: 10px;">
[…] fundamental and complex […]</div>
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<li class="" id="comment-1651" style="font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: bold; line-height: normal; list-style: none; margin: 15px 0px 3px; padding: 5px 10px 3px;"><cite style="font-size: 1.1em; font-style: normal;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2008/07/01/laws-of-nature/" rel="external nofollow" style="color: #0066cc; font-size: 1.1em; text-decoration: none;">jbg » Blog Archive » laws of nature</a></cite> Says:<br /><small class="commentmetadata" style="color: #777777; display: block; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 0.9em; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin: 0px;"><a href="http://blogs.olsen.ch/jbg/2007/03/28/fundamental/#comment-1651" style="color: #0066cc; text-decoration: none;" title="">July 1st, 2008 at 4:25 pm</a></small><div style="font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.5em; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-right: 5px; margin-top: 10px;">
[…] See also this post: funadamental, invariant thinking. […]</div>
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jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-15907954489051901612013-11-05T15:24:00.000+01:002017-05-29T23:42:06.575+02:00soundscapes<span id="mood">I <3 Electronica</span><br />
Some people have argued that electronic music is not really music at all. To me, it is the epitome of music. I love the infinite possibilities of unique soundscapes electronic music can create. And to be fair, it has been around for <a href="http://www.thomson.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/infographic/interactive-music-map/index.html">quite some time</a> and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electronic_music_genres">number of genres</a> is mind-boggling. Plus, it can be found everywhere in modern culture (remember when many ads had drum and bass in them, and for a while now, every other <a href="http://youtu.be/RsV3bGPMTXo">extreme sports video on youtube features dubstep</a>) and can be combined with any style, like the David Guetta-influenced elements in contemporary Hip Hop, Rap, and RnB.<br />
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But experiencing this kind of music is the best done live, immersing oneself into the soundscapes. Following, are two compilations of some of the gigs I went to in 2012/13. Sorry for the, at times, bad audio or video quality (unedited smartphone footage) and for the occasional <a href="http://youtu.be/Bt9zSfinwFA">Vertical Video Syndrome</a>. And I also apologize for being the guy in front of you holding up my phone;)<br />
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Intro/outro track: Ludwijka 5 (Strike082), Anders Ilar on <a href="http://www.discogs.com/Various-15-Years-Of-Shit/release/4514977">15 Years of Shit</a>.<br />
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Soundscapes 2</h2>
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The whole video is footage from the <a href="http://www.fusion-festival.de/en/"><b>Fusion festival</b></a> near Berlin, from the 26th of June to the 1st of July 2013. A truly amazing experience, as one enters a parallel universe devoid of rules and regulations, full of self-expression and tolerance (self-responsibility being the key). A subculture minimizing consumerism and fostering creative expression, the whole festival is organized from the bottom-up, without the usual hierarchies one would expect for an event of this scale. In 2013, over 70'000 people attended, plus an <a href="http://forum.fusion-festival.de/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=7414">estimated additional 10'000 illegally</a> without tickets, bringing the whole infrastructure to its limits. Since 2010, the organizers had to limit the number of tickets and from 2012 on, people wishing to attend the festival needed to participate in a ticket lottery. This means that the people who made it to the festival are really happy to attend and there is no trace of an aggressive vibe to be felt (only the local neo-Nazis need to be banned, their ideology plaguing the whole area).<br />
<br />
The festival, first starting in 1997, is set in a former Soviet military airfield (more on the history <a href="http://www.kulturkosmos.de/en/history/">here</a>). Every year, the site transforms into a tent and camper city, immersed in non-stop, mostly electronic, music (the happening is so big that you can probably find any kind of music genre somewhere). Here is a <a href="https://soundcloud.com/x1ster/sets/fusion2013">playlist of nearly 100 hours of music from the festival</a>. The intricate, and at times huge, decoration and installations are mind-blowing, making the whole thing a truly audio-visual feast. Finally, the food is strictly veg*an:)<br />
<br />
<br />
<h2>
Soundscapes 1</h2>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/vlSX-uEIfgI" width="420"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
A compilation of the following clips:<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Rammstein, O2 Arena London, 24th of February 2012 </b><br />
<br />
Not electronic music, but just an awesome live band. They seriously rock, with crazy pyrotechnics, next to extreme and bizarre performances. Rammstein is perhaps one of the most controversial and provocative bands out there and address extremely disturbing aspects of society:<br />
<ul>
<li>"Mein Teil": The song is inspired by the criminal case of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armin_Meiwes">Armin Meiwes and Bernd Jürgen Armando Brandes</a>, that happened in Rotenburg, Germany. In March 2001, the two men, both in their 40s, met each other and cut off and cooked Brandes' penis. They consumed it together, before Brandes was killed by Meiwes. As Brandes agreed to the whole ordeal, Meiwes was initially only convicted of manslaughter. In a retrial, he was then sentenced for murder.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>"Wiener Blut": The song deals with the Fritzl case in the town of Amstetten, Austria, that began on the 29th of August 1984. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fritzl">Josef Fritzl</a> lured his then 18 year old daughter Elisabeth into the basement, drugged her, and kept her captive in a dungeon he had constructed. This was only discovered on April 28, 2008, 24 years later. During this time, sexual abuse led to Elisabeth giving birth to seven children. One died, three would be adopted by Fritzl and his wife (he claimed his daughter was in a cult and that she had left her babies on their front porch) and the remaining three would be condemned to never see the sunlight and live in an extremely constrained cellar compartment with their mother until their rescue. Their only connection to the outside world was a TV and radio.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>"Hallelujah": Insinuates the scene of a minor being sexually abused by a pious priest.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>"Rammstein": The first song written by the band based on the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramstein_air_show_disaster">tragic Ramstein air show disaster</a>. The lyrics are extremely graphic. The song was featured in the 1997 David Lynch film "Lost Highway", and gave rise to the band's popularity in the US.</li>
</ul>
<br />
<b><a href="http://www.abundzu.ch/">Ab und zu</a>, Schatzalp Davos, 25th - 28th of May 2012, and 9th - 12th of May 2013</b><br />
<br />
One of my favorite parties, set in an amazing Belle Époque (Art Nouveau) hotel in the Swiss mountains. The organizers put in a lot of blood, sweat and tears. So no wonder many DJs want to be part of the experience. Words cannot really describe this event, and <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/jnode/sets/72157619067141059/">pictures can only give a hint</a>.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><a href="http://www.streetparade.com/">Streetparade</a>, Zurich, 11th of August 2012, and 10th of August 2013</b><br />
<br />
Arguably the biggest electronic festival in the world (Berlin's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Love_Parade_disaster">Love Parade was permanently cancelled</a> after a crowd rush). It was initiated in 1992 and people often foresaw its demise. In 2013 approximately 950'000 people flocked to Zurich to dance in the streets, following 28 Love Mobiles (huge semi-trailer trucks, pumping out 600'000 Watts of music) and party at one of the many clubs that weekend.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><a href="http://lethargy.ch/">Lethargy</a>, Rote Fabrik, Zurich, 9th of August 2013</b><br />
<br />
One of the many clubs that get transformed for the Streetparade weekend, set in awesome surroundings. A short clip features <b>Northern Lite</b>.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><a href="http://zurichopenair.ch/">Zurich Openair</a>, Glattbrugg, 24th of August 2012 and 31st of August of 2013</b><br />
<br />
A music festival just outside of Zurich, featuring indie, electronic, and rock music. Initiated in 2010, in 2013 an estimated 70'000 visitors attended. Next to promoting newcomers, many big names of the music industry can be found each year in the line-up. Clips, in chronological order, feature: <b>Soulwax</b> (see also <a href="http://www.2manydjs.com/?page=radiosoulwax">Radio Soulwax</a>), <b>the Prodigy</b>, Soulwax performing as <b>2manydjs</b>, <b>Paul Kalkbrenner</b>, <b>Justice</b>, and <b>the Chemical Brothers</b>.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Underground Party, Zurich, February 2013</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Event at the Hallenstadion, Zurich, March 2013</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
--<br />
<br />
Edit:<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6hmGCluVLE">Schatzalp 2017</a><br />
<b><br /></b>jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-83116332810390668902013-07-17T15:58:00.000+02:002015-09-04T17:24:36.532+02:00<span id="mood">rofl</span><br />
<i>Some of my favorite webcomics...</i><br />
<br />
<br />
<h3>
Science, technology and philosophy</h3>
<i><b><a href="http://www.xkcd.com/">xkcd</a> </b></i>is a webcomic of "romance, sarcasm, math, and language". There is a <a href="http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page">wiki</a> to help you understand the comics if they are too geeky. Created by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randall_Munroe">Randall Munroe</a>.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/honest.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/honest.png" height="197.12" width="350" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">http://xkcd.com/1146/</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<i><b><a href="http://www.smbc-comics.com/">SMBC</a></b></i> covers everything from superheroes to existentialism. Created by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zach_Weiner">Zach Weinersmith</a>.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oIertofsDQk/UeaazHHOd7I/AAAAAAAAAnk/Vb7aC0U3C6A/s1600/20120229.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.smbc-comics.com/comics/20120229.gif" height="640" width="120" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">http://www.smbc-comics.com/?id=2535</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<h3>
Politics and society</h3>
<i><b><a href="http://www.dilbert.com/">Dilbert</a></b></i> is about life in a cubicle. Created by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Adams">Scott Adams</a>.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://assets.amuniversal.com/a4b65fe06d5b01301d80001dd8b71c47" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://assets.amuniversal.com/a4b65fe06d5b01301d80001dd8b71c47" height="216" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: 13px;">http://dilbert.com/strip/2003-03-30</span></div>
<br />
There have been <a href="http://jezebel.com/5792583/dilbert-creator-pretends-to-be-his-own-biggest-fan-on-message-boards">controversies</a> surrounding his persona.<br />
<br />
<br />
<i><b><a href="http://www.mattbors.com/">Matt Bors</a></b></i> webcomics is about US "politics and ridicule". 'Murica FTW. <br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.mattbors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/572.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://www.mattbors.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/572.jpg" height="230" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">http://www.mattbors.com/blog/2009/10/28/the-trickle-down-plot/</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Bors">He</a> traveled for one month through Afghanistan, his first trip outside the US, <a href="http://www.mattbors.com/blog/2010/08/16/afghanistan-2/">to see how things are over there</a>. He is also into comics journalism, for instance, concerning the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/comic-riffs/post/haitis-scapegoats-cartoon-movements-compelling-video-tells-of-lgbt-abuse/2012/01/13/gIQALTwXwP_blog.html">Haiti earthquake aftermath</a>.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Life, the universe and everything</h3>
<a href="http://theoatmeal.com/">The Oatmeal</a>, created by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Oatmeal">Matthew Inman</a>.<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://theoatmeal.com/comics/religion" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="How to suck at your religion" src="http://s3.amazonaws.com/theoatmeal-img/comics/religion/header.png" height="133" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Click me...</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://theoatmeal.com/comics/religion">
</a></div>
He is very funny when it comes to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Oatmeal_and_FunnyJunk_legal_dispute">legal disputes</a>. <a href="http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/bearlove-good-cancer-bad--3">Really</a>, <a href="http://theoatmeal.com/blog/carreon">really</a> funny.<br />
<br />
<i><br /></i>
<i>On a side note, if you are not spending enough time online, consider these options:</i><br />
<ul>
<li><i><a href="http://9gag.com/">9gag</a></i></li>
<li><i><a href="http://www.cheezburger.com/">cheezburger network</a> </i></li>
</ul>
<i> </i><br />
<ul>
</ul>
jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-55470607076786362622012-11-30T14:47:00.000+01:002013-08-21T12:20:14.835+02:00TED with and without the x<span id="mood">being inspired...</span><br />
I love <a href="http://www.youtube.com/user/TEDtalksDirector">TED talks</a>! It is amazingly cool to see very interesting people casually talk about what they are up to. And I especially love the sciency talks, where you get instant insights into cutting edge research, without having to be emerged into that particular community and without having to deal with the technical talk. However, I also appreciate the enormous breath of different speakers. You get to hear about stuff you never even knew exited.<br />
<br />
I can't even say what my favorite TED talks are, because there are so many I like. If I would have to pick, I would choose these talks:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://youtu.be/QTrJqmKoveU">Jill Bolte Taylor: My stroke of insight</a></li>
<li><a href="http://youtu.be/N2QZM7azGoA">Amy Purdy: Living Beyond Limits</a></li>
<li><a href="http://youtu.be/RUwS1uAdUcI">Hans Rosling: Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you've ever seen</a></li>
</ul>
The "categories" I enjoy the most are science/technology, inspiration and activism. Lately however, I find the problem to be the overwhelming number of talks. That's why I like the newly introduced <a href="http://www.ted.com/playlists">playlists</a>. Recently TED scored <a href="http://www.ted.com/pages/great_moments_in_tedtalks">1 billion views</a>.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Adding the x</h3>
TED grants licenses to third parties to organize independent TEDx events internationally. As of October 2012, more than 19'900 talks have been given at more than 5'088 TEDx events in more than 137 countries (<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PVpHnn_IvI#t=2m38s">source</a>). This really gets the community thing going and inspires a distributed and global effort to share "ideas worth spreading".<br />
<br />
<h3>
TEDxZurich 2012</h3>
In 2010 the first TEDx event was launched in Zurich. On the 25th of October 2012, the <a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/">third edition</a> was organized. It was a fun and eventful day and my favorite talks can be categorized as follows.<br />
<br />
<b>Inspiration:</b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/08/charles-eugster/">Charles Eugster, at an age of 93, on having a beach body at 94</a> (see also these TED talks on <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_buettner_how_to_live_to_be_100.html">longevity</a> and <a href="http://youtu.be/KLjgBLwH3Wc">multiple sclerosis</a>)</li>
</ul>
<b>Inspiration and activism:</b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/10/enrique-steiger/">Enrique Steiger on balancing a life as a plastic surgeon in Zurich and as a trauma and reconstructive surgeon in war zones</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/09/christoph-von-toggenburg/">Christoph von Toggenburg on humanity in action</a></li>
</ul>
<b>Science and technology:</b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/09/bradley-nelson/">Bradley Nelson on bacteria-sized medical robots </a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/10/davide-scaramuzza/">Davide Scaramuzza on autonomous flying robots</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/10/jose-del-r-millan/">José del R. Millán on mind-controlled machines</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/08/stelian-coros/">Stelian Coros on replicating locomotion</a></li>
</ul>
<b>Activism:</b><br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/08/eleanor-tabi-haller-jorden/">Eleanor Tabi Haller-Jorden on avoiding gender stereotypes</a> (see also <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drt0cn_FkWk#t=0m27s">Mahzarin Banaji's talk</a>, or test your biases yourself at <a href="https://implicit.harvard.edu/implicit/user/featuredtasks/race4/featuredtask.html">Project Implicit</a>)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/08/ellen-t-hoen/">Ellen ‘t Hoen on making advanced medicines available to the world</a><b></b></li>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/08/mikael-colville-andersen/">Mikael Colville-Andersen on modern urban bicycle culture</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/08/jorge-vinuales/">Jorge Viñuales on a tax on bottled water</a><b></b></li>
</ul>
<b>Aesthetics:</b><br />
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/10/jan-henrik-hansen/">Jan Henrik Hansen on making music physically manifest</a></li>
</ul>
<b>Inspiration:</b><br />
<ul>
<li> <a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/10/thomas-theurillat-christian-maurer/">Christian Maurer & Thomas Theurillat on winning the Red Bull X-Alps race</a></li>
</ul>
<br />
Finally, this is the talk I gave about complex systems, economic networks and the study, <a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2011/10/network-of-global-corporate-control.html"><i>The Network of Global Corporate Control</i></a>:<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" frameborder="0" height="248" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/vSSKpL87_Rs" width="440"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
More information can be found here:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://ethz.focproject.net/viewer/tnc">The list of power-holders</a></li>
<li><a href="http://bit.ly/zZ8qLq">The study </a></li>
<li>The <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354.500-revealed--the-capitalist-network-that-runs-the-world.html">New Scientist article</a> that went viral, as it happened to be published in the exact week the Occupy Wall Street movement went global</li>
<li><a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2012/05/decoding-complexity.html">An article I wrote for the Montreal Review</a></li>
<li><a href="http://ubuntuone.com/58XIoB0KNAiFd5X4BHrWEk">The slides can be found here</a></li>
<li>For corrections on the things I said wrong, see the description of the video I re-uploaded to my youtube channel <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hHy_Yf9wt0s&feature=share&list=UUssEFZxGzUnGICQnralUomg">here</a></li>
<li>My <a href="http://www.tedxzurich.com/2012/08/james-b-glattfelder/">TEDx</a> and <a href="http://www.sg.ethz.ch/people/formercoll/jglattfelder">ETH</a> page</li>
</ul>
Thanks <a href="https://twitter.com/gklain">@gklain</a>, <a href="http://ronaldslabbers.com/">Ronald Slabbers</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/lazyhotstepper">@lazyhotstepper</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/kompostnyc">@kompostnyc</a> for the help:)<br />
<br />
Sometimes TED is accused of being an elitist thing. Indeed, when I applied to attend TEDXZurich 2010 I was rejected;) Now, on the one hand, there are only so many seats to fill and of course in Zurich the demand is way too big, forcing a selection process. On the other hand, it was a real pleasure to meet the really nice TEDxZurich crew. I experienced them as being modest and highly dedicated people, who really enjoy organizing this even, without seeking the spotlight or giving the event an air of superiority...<br />
<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
Update:<br />
The guys from TED.com picked up the talk and featured it:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>they re-edited <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/james_b_glattfelder_who_controls_the_world.html">Who controls the world?</a> and stuck it on their page,</li>
<li>wrote a <a href="http://blog.ted.com/2013/02/13/who-controls-the-world-resources-for-understanding-this-visualization-of-the-global-economy/">blog post,</a></li>
<li>created a profile <a href="http://www.ted.com/speakers/james_b_glattfelder.html">page</a>.</li>
</ul>
jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com1Zurich, Switzerland47.3686498 8.539182547.2826163 8.381254 47.4546833 8.6971110000000014tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2863038330728908855.post-67323438911406814702012-10-11T17:58:00.000+02:002012-11-22T16:40:57.659+01:00the dreamer's dream<span id="mood">hard to conclusively rule out...</span><br />
<br />
In the posts <i><a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2011/12/fabricating-reality.html">fabricating reality</a></i> and <i><a href="http://j-node.blogspot.ch/2012/08/on-certainty.html">on certainty</a></i> I tried to argue that fundamentally we have no clue of what is really going on. That there are many cracks in the foundations on which our knowledge rests. And that reality could be radically different to what we like to imagine it is. If you think this is rather silly, if you think the world makes total sense when you wake up every day, consider the following.<br />
<br />
In dream research, there is a phenomenon called false awakening. This means you first dream of waking up in a lucid dream before you really wake up.
If you believe this is no big deal, think about the following words from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Metzinger">Thomas Metzinger</a>, a philosopher of the mind, who studies consciousness. He is talking from personal experience:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>To wake up twice in a row is something that can shatter many of the theoretical intuitions you have about consciousness --- for instance, that the vividness, the coherence, and the crispness of a conscious experience are evidence that you are really in touch with reality.</i></blockquote>
<br />
The quote is taken from his recent book, <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Ego-Tunnel-Science-Mind-Myth/dp/0465020690">The Ego Tunnel: The Science of the Mind and the Myth of the Self</a></i>, where he incidentally goes to great lengths to assert that experiencing a self is an illusion and a construct of the mind.<br />
<br />
This quote is reminiscent of the old story told by the Chinese philosopher Zhuangzi, called <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhuangzi#The_butterfly_dream">the butterfly dream</a>.<br />
<br />
Metzinger then goes on to provocatively ask:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>So, how do you know that you actually woke up this morning? Couldn't it be that everything you have experienced was only a dream?</i></blockquote>
<br />
So, how do you know?jbghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03101564546452126608noreply@blogger.com1